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Chris Durell

Welcome back for a full day of daily fantasy baseball. The day starts early(12:37 ET) with four matinee affairs involving all American League teams. The main slate starts at its usual time (7:10 ET) and gives us another 11 games to sort through. Below you will find my favorite pitcher and team to stack from each slate. Let’s dive into the action.

MLB Lineup Optimizer Starting Pitchers

Early Slate

Lance McCullers
Opponent – vs. LAA
Park – Minute Maid Park (Ranked #1 for Pitchers via ESPN)
Vegas Favorite ( HOU -165)
Vegas Total (8)

I love the spot for **Lance McCullers** today in the small four-game slate. He comes at a huge discount from **Chris Sale** and has been somewhat comparable through three starts. While McCullers ERA(4.67) is quite a bit higher than Sale’s, they have nearly identical K’9 rate’s(McCullers-11.94, Sale-12.05) and McCullers’s xFIP(1.86) is actually a few notches lower than Sale’s(2.38) as well. Don’t get me wrong, both are great options with high upside, but if I am playing the early slate only with just four games I will take the discount and more balanced lineup every time. Both face teams that are striking out over 21% of the time vs. the specific handedness but looking at the last seven days, the Angels have been ice-cold at the dish with a league low 43 wRC+ and very high 25.9% K rate. McCullers is safe in all formats.

Main Slate

James Paxton
Opponent – @ OAK
Park – Oakland Coliseum
Vegas (SEA -165 )
Vegas Total (8)

First of all, there are three very high upside options on the main slate and all are pitching on the road tonight. I start by eliminating(of the top options. I will still have exposure) **Carlos Martinez** of the Cardinals as he comes in 0-2 and while he struck out 11 in his last outing vs. the Yankees, he also walked EIGHT batters! That brings us to **Stephen Strasburg** and **James Paxton**. Vegas has both teams as -165 to -175 favorites across multiple books, but I lean Paxton for a couple of reasons. He is cheaper on both sites and has been the more impressive pitcher. Through three starts, Paxton has only allowed eight hits, four walks, and has yet to allow an earned run while striking out 22 batters. Even his xFIP(2.89) suggests that these numbers are real and can be somewhat trusted going forward. He also gets to face an Oakland team that ranks 24th overall in wRC+(64) vs. left-handed pitching, 27th in wOBA(.252) vs. left-handed pitching and they are also striking out at a 21.9% clip. Paxton will come back to earth eventually, but I don’t think it will be tonight. He is safe in all formats.

MLB Lineup Optimizer Stacks

Early Slate

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers(Norris)
Park – Tropicana Field
Vegas (TB -110 )
Vegas Total (8)

Outside of what will most likely be the chalky Houston Astros, there isn’t really a team that stands out from a stacking perspective until you dig a little deeper. The Rays are a .500 ball club and sit second last in the AL East but have been money at home. They are 7-2 at the Trop and while they strike out a ton(29.2%) vs. left-handed pitching, they have the seventh highest wRC+(124) and wOBA(.338). Today they will face southpaw **Daniel Norris** who appears to be getting lucky early in the season. His 2.19 ERA looks impressive until you dig deeper and see his low .237 BABIP and high 5.01 xFIP on the season. This smells of regression in a big way and even his hard contact numbers show this as he is currently giving it up at a 42% clip. Look for the Rays to stay hot at home with the top DFS targets being left handed **Evan Longoria**, **Steven Souza**, **Brad Miller** and **Corey Dickerson**.
Main Slate

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves(R.A. Dickey)
Park – SunTrust Park
Vegas (WSH -174)
Vegas Total (7.5)

The opening line seems pretty low for a stack but most of that 7.5 runs should come from the Nationals. **Stephen Strasburg** should help keep the Braves offense at bay in this one and the Nats get to tee off against 42-year-old **R.A. Dickey**. He gave up six runs, three earned, in his first start of the year with four strikeouts and four walks but was exposed for the home run in the new SunTrust Park in start #2. He struck out six and got the win but gave up two solo shots which could be a sign of things to come(trust me I had to deal with it as a Jays fan for too long). He is pitching in a park that was designed for the left-handed power hitter in mind and it just so happens the Nationals have three pretty good left-handed hitters at the top of their lineup. It starts with **Adam Eaton** who, since joining his new team, has a hit in 11 of his first 14 games(.327 average) with seven runs batted in. **Daniel Murphy** and **Bryce Harper** provide a ton of power upside in the middle of the lineup and if you need to choose just one of them, due to the high price, make it Harper. He is red hot going 9 for his last 12 with three doubles, four home runs and 10 runs driven in.

James Leer

Welcome to Lineup Lab’s MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article, where we feature our top stacks for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your favorite players from the MLB Player Lab.

This season, new with our MLB Subscription Package we offer Daily Fantasy Graphs. We wanted to create a tool that gives users the ability to visualize data points for Hitters and Pitchers by showing DFS salaries/fantasy points over time. If any of you come from the world of Stocks or Equities Trading, you will immediately understand the usefulness of these charts. Just as price and volume are essential in understanding a stocks movement, points and salary are core for DFS.

STARTING PITCHERS

Clayton Kershaw vs Colorado Rockies
Park – Dodger Stadium

Sure, you’re going to have to spend a large chunk of your salary but, it’s Clayton Kershaw at home! Kershaw dominates at home, especially against the Rockies. In his last five home games, he has averaged 28.19 Fantasy Points per game. In the past two years, he has averaged 30.5 DK Points per game over four outings against the Rockies at Dodger Stadium. Coors Field, now that’s a totally different ballgame. He comes into today with the lowest 2016 WHIP (.73), xFIP (1.74), ERA (1.69), allowed wOBA (.209), and the most K/9 (10.4).

 
Julio Teheran vs Washington Nationals 
Park – SunTrust Park

If you need a value option for tonight, look no further than Julio Teheran. The deadly assassin of the Atlanta Braves pitching staff; Julio’s fastball generates a vast number of swings and misses compared to other pitchers’ four seamers. So far this season, he has 19 IP with 2 ER and 15 Strikeouts. He leaves Washington Nationals Werth, Zimmerman and Rendon dumbfounded at the plate (over 88 At bats with only 18 hits, an average of only .204).

STACKS

Cincinnati Reds vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (Baltimore Orioles)
Park – Great American Ball Park

The Cincinnati Reds this year have been <gasp!> impressive. Currently leading the NL Central right now they are 2nd in the league in Slugging (.466), 4th in Runs (71), 5th in Hits (125), HR’s (19). Look for the Reds to continue riding high against the struggling Jimenez. In only 8.2 IP he has given up ten earned runs on five hits with 3 of those being homers. If Jimenez doesn’t get control over his pitches soon, his spot in the rotation could be in jeopardy.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jordan Zimmermann (Detroit Tigers)
Park – Tropicana Field

Jordan Zimmermann’s control isn’t what it used to be when he was with the Nats. Last time versus the Twins he allowed five runs on four hits issuing his first back-to-back walk in over five years. He says that he has lost his grip (literally) on the baseball, for a flyball pitcher that’s not something you want to hear. For the value, Logan Morrison could be a possible threat against Zimmermann’s lack of control. Other Rays to consider: Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Kevin Kiermaier.

James Leer

Welcome to Lineup Lab’s MLB Daily Fantasy Stacks article, where we feature our top stacks for our MLB Lineup Optimizer on Fanduel and Draftkings. Put your favorite stacks from the article below in our lineup optimizer and hit calculate. You can let it fill in the rest of the spots for you or choose your favorite players from the MLB Player Lab.

This season, new with our MLB Subscription Package we offer Daily Fantasy Graphs. We wanted to create a tool that gives users the ability to visualize data points for Hitters and Pitchers by showing DFS salaries/fantasy points over time. If any of you come from the world of Stocks or Equities Trading, you will immediately understand the usefulness of these charts. Just as price and volume are essential in understanding a stocks movement, points and salary are core for DFS.

STARTING PITCHERS

Mike Leake vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Park – Busch Stadium

Thus far this season Leake is holding court over hitters. Over the course of 15 Innings Pitched he has allowed 1 Earned Run while striking out 13 and only walking one. In those two outings Leake holds an insanely minute .60 ERA and a .73 WHIP. Tonight, he’s at home versus the Pirates where he has owned such stars as McCutchen, Marte and Polanco in the past holding them to a batting average below .232.

STACKS

Baltimore Orioles vs. Bronson Arroyo (Cincinnati Reds)
Park – Great American Ball Park

Ah, the Great American Ballpark, where balls seem to bolt right off of the bat and into the stands. Even though the wind is blowing in a bit, Baltimore will still find a way to stack up the runs in this one. Currently, in the infantile start to the 2017 season the Orioles are the only ones that hold a record >.700 in the MLB. After two disappointing starts Arroyo has 11 earned runs in only 10 Innings Pitched for an ERA of 9.90. I like **Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado and Trey Mancini** for the O’s tonight.

Minnesota Twins vs Josh Tomlin (Cleveland Indians)
Park – Target Field

For whatever reason Tomlin is off to an incredibly rocky start to the 2017 MLB season. Over his past two starts he has only pitched 6.1 innings and has giving up 13(!!) earned runs (18.47 ERA / 2.68 WHIP). He is 4-4 with a 5.67 ERA in 66 2/3 innings versus Minnesota in his career. Add to the fact that the wind is blowing out of Target Field at 12 MPH and you have a recipe for disaster. I like **Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario** tonight versus the righty.

Chris Durell

Welcome back for another season of daily fantasy baseball. I am very excited to be joining the Lineup Lab team once again in 2017 to provide you, the readers, with some insight into my favorite plays and strategy. To start things off, I will be providing you with a couple pitching options and a couple of stacks to help you get your lineups started.

My process each day (or night depending on when I write the article) is to open up the Player Lab and start breaking down the matchups. Lineup Lab has continued to upgrade their tools making it very easy to narrow down your picks on a daily basis. They offer sortable and filterable columns such as wind speed, salary, PTS/$, Vegas O/U, wOBA splits, ERA splits, park factors and much more. Here is a sneak peek of what you will see in the Player Lab.

Starting Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants
Opponent – vs. Colorado Rockies
Park – AT&T Park
Vegas Favorite – SF(-155)
Vegas Total – 6.5 Runs

He is the most expensive option on both sites and by a wide margin, especially on FanDuel. On DraftKings where we have to roster two pitchers, I don’t think there is any reason to fade Mad Bum tonight at home vs. the Rockies. He is off to a so-so start through two games with a 0-1 record but has struck out 16 batters in just 15 innings and that is exactly what we are looking for. The Rockies currently sit middle of the pack(15th) in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching but the big number is the 26% K rate they come in with and now face an elite southpaw. I will be using Bumgarner in all formats.

Robert Gsellman – New York Mets
Opponent – @ Miami Marlins
Park – Marlins Park
Vegas – NYM +125
Vegas Total – 8

Before you go calling me crazy for targeting an underdog, hear me out; The Mets are red hot winning four straight games and have yet to lose on the road(3-0). Gsellman made his first start of the season last Saturday vs. the Marlins (why I suspect they are dogs today) but in five innings did strike out seven batters but was hurt by a home run. Looking at his numbers last season, it is also promising as he finished with a 2.42 ERA and respectable 3.38 xFIP and 8.5 K/9 rate in eight appearances (seven starts). He is most certainly risky but should be low owned on a small slate and provides some nice salary relief.

Stack

Cincinnati Reds vs. Jimmy Nelson(MIL)
Vegas – CIN +100
Vegas Total – 9

I love both sides of this game but will be leaning the Reds tonight as my main stack. Looking at the early season numbers, the Reds rank sixth overall in wRC+(109) vs. right-handed pitching and are striking out less than 18% of the time. In comparison, the Brewers are striking out a league high 29.5% of the time and rank 22nd overall in wRC+(77). The top of the Reds lineup has two speedsters who can steal multiple bases and they are followed by some power hitters in Votto and Duvall. With Nelson looking good in his first start this season, it should also help suppress the ownership of the Reds stack a bit, even if on a small slate.