DraftKings FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 10, 2017
*Chris Durell*
DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 10, 2017
With just two afternoon games today, I will be concentrating on the 10-game main slate tonight and providing my top pitchers and stacks. Let’s dig in and take a look.
Starting Pitchers
James Paxton
Opponent – vs. LAA
Park – Safeco Field (Pitchers Park)
Vegas Favorite (SEA -180)
Vegas Total (7.5)
There are five pitchers over $10K tonight on DraftKings and all of them display some sort of upside. This should help neutralize the ownership and allow us to choose our favorite option. For me, it’s James Paxton who has been nothing short of dominant in the second half. He has won all five of his starts, posted a 1.41 ERA/1.95 xFIP and is walking just over a half batter per nine with an elite 11.53 K/9 rate and 13% swinging strike rate. The matchup could be a bit better as the Angels strike out a tick less than league average but overall they rank 29th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching.
Lance Lynn
Opponent – vs. KC
Park – Busch Stadium (Pitchers Park)
Vegas Favorite (STL -140)
Vegas Total (8.5)
The options at the second starting pitcher position for DraftKings are limited tonight if you are looking in the mid tier. For the most part, this will have me paying up for two high-end options but in the lineups I want to upgrade bats, I will be looking to roster Lynn. He doesn’t provide a ton of upside(7.7 K/9 rate) but has been extremely consistent all season. He has held opponents to two or less earned runs in seven straight starts and in 17 of his 23 starts this season. He also gets a very good matchup vs. the Royals who rank in the bottom third of the league when looking at runs and also when looking at wOBA, wRC+ and ISO vs. right-handed pitching.
Top Stacks
Stacking is a little bit tougher tonight as there are currently no teams projected over 5.5 runs and no game with a double-digit run total. On the high-end I like the Astros and Dodgers going up against southpaws and both teams sit inside the Top 3 when looking at most metrics vs. left-handed pitching. The Astros get the best matchup going up against Carlos Rodon who does have some k upside but the ugly walk rate (4.6 BB/9) and long ball potential(22.9% HR/FB rate) more than makeup for the risk. The Dodgers get a big park upgrade in Chase Field and face Anthony Banda who is just two starts into his major league career after posting a 5.13 ERA/4.67 xFIP in 19 starts in AAA earlier this season. Target the Dodger right handed bats (Taylor, Hernandez, Turner, Puig).
On the value end of things, I like going with the Mets left-handed bats (Conforto, Cabrera, Granderson, Walker) and even Cespedes vs. Vince Velasquez. He has given up a .373 wOBA to lefties this season and has walked over five per nine. I will also have exposure to the Athletics who face Wade Miley tonight. The Oakland Coliseum has actually been an above average hitters park this season and Miley gives up a ton of home runs(19.6% HR). I am mainly looking at Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Ryan Healy.