Daily Fantasy Pitchers and Stacks – 7/29/16
Austyn Varney
Welcome to Friday baseball! We have a 13 game main slate on our hands with 1 early game at 2:20. On the main slate, we have some great pitchers to consider as well as a few offenses that are in great spots to produce. While this slate is definitely more tailor made for tournaments, cash games are certainly in play. Let’s take a look at some pitchers and offenses to target across the field.
Pitching Targets
Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13600
Opponent – SF (Samardzija) Park – @SF
FD – 39.14 DK – 25.85
On a night with so many terrific options at the pitcher position, Scherzer leads the way with the highest projected points total on both sites. He is always a solid option as he comes with a high floor and ceiling with the leagues second highest strikeout rate(11.5 K/9) and 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate. Over his last 10 starts since June 1st he has an elite 1.71 ERA and has recorded double digit strikeout totals in six of those 10 starts for a 11.99 K/9 rate. The Giants look like a tough match up on the surface as they only K about 17% of the time vs right handed pitching but there is some upside. They have been struggling over the last 14 days with the 22nd best wOBA and have been striking out over 20% of the time in that span. The Nationals are early -160 road favorites in a game with a low total(7) making Scherzer a terrific option in all formats.
Vincent Velasquez FD 9000 DK 9700
Opponent – ATL (Jenkins) Park – @ATL
FD – 35.15 DK – 23.22
If Scherzer doesn’t allow you to get to the bats you want tonight there are a few other options in great spots that rate better on a PTS/$ basis & will give you that flexibility. Velasquez is one of those arms tonight as he gets a road matchup in Atlanta. Even on the road the Phillies come in early at -150 favorites. This is a testament to just how bad the Braves are. They rank dead last in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching and have scored the fewest runs(346) in the league. Velasquez is having an impressive season to this point which surprising given the team around him. He has an xFIP 3.78 which isn’t far from his 3.334 ERA and he comes with elite strikeout potential with a 10.11 K/9 rate. The one issue with Velasquez is his walk rate(3.34 BB/9) which elevates his pitch count and keeps him from going deep into games. For this reason I will only be using him in GPP’s tonight.
Steven Matz FD 9700 DK 8500
Opponent – COL (Chatwood) Park – @NYM
FD – 36.66 DK – 24.13
For the most part, outside of a couple bad starts, Matz has been very good this season. He is working with a 3.46 xFIP and an above average 8.50 K/9 rate. He has improved on the walk rate lowering it by about a half walk per nine and is dealing close to 6% more ground balls than his rookie campaign. He will get a favorable spot on Friday to improve on those numbers as the Rockies come to town for a weekend series in the Big Apple. While the Rockies absolutely mash at home ranking 1st in wOBA(.378), they are quite the opposite on the road ranked 29th in wOBA(.291) and wRC+(78). They also strikeout around 5% on the road as well adding value to Matz tonight. At a price under $10K and a overall game total under 7.0, Matz makes a viable option in any format today.
Stack Targets
Texas Rangers vs. Edinson Volquez (Royals)
Park – Globe Life Park in Arlington
The Rangers are an exciting ball club that is all-of-a-sudden featuring a bunch of power in their lineup. There’s a ton to like about this matchup today. For starters, Edinson Volquez is a low-K, high-BB arm with a mid 4’s xFIP. Volquez has taken a huge dive on the season and has showed his struggles with the home run ball against both sides of the plate. The park in Arlington rates out as one of the best in the game for bats and boosts power to all sides of the plate. And then there’s the Ranger lineup. I’m loving guys like Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara hitting at the top of the lineup and righty pitching as their better splits. Ian Desmond’s putting together a fantastic fantasy season and recent call up Joey Gallo has a ton of power (though he k’s in bunches). The prices on the Rangers, especially on FanDuel, make for great stacks and worthwhile in the optimizer today.
San Diego Padres vs. Brandon Finnegan (Reds)
Park – Petco Park
I hate the ballpark so let’s start there. Petco traditionally plays as a pitcher’s park and it’s always tough to string together big games where power is diminished. But I do think the Padres are in a great spot here and their prices are low enough that we can take a shot on the upside in a tournament. Brandon Finnegan is a weak lefty with a putrid 5.25 xFIP through 111 innings this season and a K rate less than seven per nine. To add on, he has struggled against both lefties and righties which gives us the opportunity to target the entire Padres offense. He also walks the ballpark. The Padres have righty power at the top of their lineup with Wil Myers and Matt Kemp leading the way. And while the rest of the their lineup doesn’t feature a ton more righties, the additions of Alex Dickerson and Ryan Schimpf make it tough for the Reds (already bad) bullpen to play match up ball late innings.
Houston Astros vs. Matt Boyd (Tigers)
Park – Comerica Park
The Astros have been red hot lately jumping right up into the mix for the American League Wildcard and now sit just a half game back of the Red Sox and 1.5 back of the Blue Jays. Over the last 14 days they lead baseball with a .346 wOBA and sit second in ISO(.220) and wRC+(116). Their lineup is loaded with young talent that is headlined by Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer who come with a nice combo of power and speed and should make up the core of your stack. Marwin Gonzalez can always be considered as he hits out of the two hole between Springer and Altuve. Gonzalez is also hot right now riding a 11 game hit streak into tonight. If you are looking for additional power to add to your stack today, strongly consider Evan Gattis who provides big power upside against left handed pitching and normally hits in the five hole. The Astros will make for an interesting stack target to throw into the optimizer tonight.