Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice – 8/17/16
Chris Durell
Welcome back to another exciting day of daily fantasy baseball. Today we have a split slate with a five game afternoon slate starting 1:05 pm and a 10 game main slate starting at 7:05 pm. Both slates are filled with top pitching options giving us some decisions to make if we are wanting to fit in some bats at Coors Field. Let’s take a look at some top pitchers and stacking options for the day.
PITCHERS
Chris Archer FD 9400 DK 10600
Opponent – SD (Friedrich) Park – @TB
FD – 40.51 DK – 26.62
You can go one of two ways for pitching on the early slate today. You can take the risk with Strasburg in Coors which makes a decent contrarian GPP approach. For safety I prefer Archer today who has a much better matchup at home vs. the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA against right handed pitching. Despite a few bad outings for Archer he has been decent this season with a 3.42 xFIP and elite 10.64 K/9 rate. The Rays are also early -200 favorites.
Carlos Carrasco FD 9800 DK 8700
Opponent – CHW (Gonzalez) Park – @CLE
FD – 35.01 DK – 22.89
The Indians are coming in as one of the biggest favorites(-225) of the entire slate and will be throwing Carlos Carrasco out on the mound today. He has had a few hiccups this year which stem from a high HR/FB rate(17%) and drop off in strikeouts from 10+ to 8.5 K/9. While he has given up three earned runs in each of his last two he has gone seven innings in both (first time since June) and has struck out a total of 17 batters. The matchup is the key today as the White Sox rank 20th in wOBA (.306) against right handed pitching with a 20.7% strikeout rate.
STACKS
Washington Nationals vs. Jon Gray (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field
Don’t over think things in the early slate when it comes to stacking. The Nationals are currently -145 favorites with a very high 5.75 team total. They will look to take the rubber match vs. the Rockies in a series that has hit the under in each of the first two games. I can’t see this happening again today as the Nats get a matchup vs. Jon Gray who has struggled at home this year and has also struggled most recently. In his last two starts(@PHI, vs. MIA) he has given up 16 hits and 14 earned runs in just eight innings pitched. He continues to show K upside striking out nine in those games but also struggled with control walking five batters. Look for Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Jayson Werth to crush their values today.
Chicago Cubs vs. Jimmy Nelson (Brewers)
Park – Wrigley Field
While the overall Vegas total is lower in this game than the Rockies game, the Cubs come with the highest team total(6.12) of the slate. The Cubs are the class of the major leagues right now with 75 wins and a crazy +201 run differential. They are stacked at the top of the lineup with Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist and have terrific value options in willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward and Javier Baez. They are ranked 7th overall in wOBA(.329) and wRC+(103) vs. right handed pitching and get one of the best matchups of the night. They will face gas can Jimmy Nelson who has pitched to a 4.80 xFIP this year with an average K rate(7.0 K/9) and awful walk rate(4.27 BB/9). He has also gave up a total of 17 home runs this season that equals a bad 13.7% HR/FB rate. The weather is a bit of a concern at this time with about a 30-50% chance of rain around game time. I think this will scare some off the Cubs making them an even better option in the MLB lineup optimizer if the game is to be played in full.