Cory Hanley

Chris Durell

This week I am going to throw a little twist into the article by screenshotting one of my tournament stacks that I recommended this past week and analyzing the roster construction and results. I think it is important to not only look at what individual players did and did not work out but also how the lineup construction process worked out. This week I will be looking at one of my DraftKings Thursday-Monday lineups.

I wanted to focus on one of my Thursday-Monday slate lineups to emphasize the opportunity in targeting Monday night players and stacks. As you can see Andrew Luck and TY Hilton both came in around 1% owned ($1 First Down-7,058 entries). Dwayne Allen, not rostered, was also less than 1% owned and went off for three touchdowns and 29 DK points. Donte Moncrief was 4.25% owned for the Colts. You won’t get this low of ownership and upside every week, but the point is that if you like a team on Monday night it is best to get on them in a Thursday-Monday slate. Every week it’s the same thing. Almost 25% of the field targets players from the Thursday night game to get “action”. Even this past week in a projected low scoring game, the Cowboys/’Vikings game had six of the Top 11 highest owned players in the above $1 Thurs-Mon First Down. Take advantage of this!

Now let’s look at the lineup construction.

QB – Besides everything I stated above, I loved Andrew Luck this week for the reasons I explained in the stacks article. The Jets defense is lacking on the back end, combined with the projected low-ownership with the Q tag on Luck all week. It worked it as he was extremely effective completing 22 of 28 passes for 278 yards and four touchdowns.

RB – With the combined price of Luck and Hilton I decided to fade the Top 2 RB’s (Johnson/Bell) and look for some value. I was attracted to the matchup for LeSean McCoy against the Raiders bottom third passing defense. The LaGarrette Blount pick was a bit contrarian as the Rams rate as a Top 10 Defense vs. the Run on Player Lab. What got me was the -13.5 spread put on the home team. Game script fit perfectly for high usage and that’s what he got with 18 carries that he turned into 88 yards and a touchdown. The pair of RB’s combined for 73.6 DK points for a cost of $13,300 for just over 5x value.

WR – After selecting TY Hilton as my elite stacking option I decided to attack the highest projected scoring game of the week. This is where I don’t think I made the wrong decision but rather got a bit unlucky. Willie Snead was a great play when you looked at all the factors (matchup, price, vegas, etc..) but Drew Brees had an off day. It was the first time since 2009 in which he hasn’t thrown a touchdown at home. On the other side of the ball, Golden Tate was an excellent play who caught eight of his game-high 10 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown for 31.5 DK points (5.1x value). For my FLEX I also used a WR and selected Chris Hogan as a projected low owned home run play. He was questionable going into Sunday but was cleared to play and was extremely cheap. Even in a tie for third in targets (5), he was able to catch four for 23 yards and caught a big one in the redzone for his only touchdown which helped him get close to 3x value with 12.3 DK points.

TE – This is where, if I had the chance, I would get in my time machine and roster Dwayne Allen in my Colts stacks. Hindsight is 20/20. It was the one lineup I didn’t swap with the news snow in Green Bay. To be honest, though, I would have only moved him over to Lance Kendricks who was my other high owned value tight end last week.

Overall, it was a small profit thanks to Luck and the Colts stack that could have been much, much better had I went to Allen and upgraded Blount or Hogan. This week I will be playing more double-ups and 50/50’s on the Thursday to Monday slate while avoiding the Thursday game as it projected to be low scoring as most short week games are (10-5 Under to Over counting all Thanksgiving games).

Now let’s take a look at the Week 13 Game Balls.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Joe Flacco – Flacco had a huge day at home vs. the Dolphins completing 36 of 47 passes for 381 yards and four touchdowns (30.24 FD pts, 33.24 DK pts). If you played him in tournaments you likely padded your bankroll as he was very low owned facing what was a tough Dolphins passing defense.

Andrew Luck – As I discussed above he was low-owned, even in Sunday-Monday slate he had under 10% in most places. He didn’t hit the 300-yard mark for the three point DK bonus but was still the second-highest scoring fantasy QB in Week 13 due to his four touchdown passes on Monday night.

Matthew Stafford – One positive out of the Saints/Lions game was the continued success of Stafford in plus matchups. He completed 30 of his 42 pass attempts for 341 yards and two touchdowns (26.84 DK/23.84 FD pts). The upside is limited in the Lions dink and dunk offense so continue to only consider him in these plus matchups.

RB

David Johnson – Guess who? They might as well build a statue of him outside the University of Phoenix Stadium. He rushed 18 times for 84 yards and a touchdown while also catching nine of his 12 targets for another 91 yards and a touchdown (38.5 DK/34 FD pts). He now sits third in rushing behind Elliott and Murray but with his 704 receiving yards leads the league in all-purpose yards with 1,709.

Jordan Howard – The weather in Chicago lead to heavy usage for Howard this week and he didn’t disappoint fantasy owners. He toted the rock 32 times on Sunday picking 117 yards and three touchdowns (32.7 DK/29.7 FDD pts). He is a bell cow RB with a 64% Load % on Player Lab and gets a great matchup this week.

LeSean McCoy – McCoy shredded the Raiders for 130 yards rushing on 17 carries while catching all seven of his targets for another 61 yards receiving (29.1 DK/22.6 FD pts). His day could have been much bigger had Mike Gillislee not came in and vultured two touchdowns from Shady.

WR

Golden Tate – He ended up saving a ton of my lineups with a huge effort on Sunday. He caught eight of his game-high ten targets for 145 yards and a touchdown (31.5DK/24.5 FD pts). If Marvin Jones Jr. misses another game look for Tate to take control of the target share vs. the Bears once again.

Jordy Nelson – Even in bad weather Jordy came through on Sunday catching eight of his game-high ten targets for 118 yards and a touchdown while he and Rodgers continue to put up QB1/WR1 numbers on a pass happy Packers team.

TY Hilton – Back to the Monday night game and not for the last time in this section. Andrew Luck put on a show throwing four touchdowns and while zero went to Hilton he still ranked in the Top 3 of fantasy points at the position. He was very efficient catching nine of his ten targets for 146 yards(26.6 DK/19.1 FD pts).

TE

Dwayne Allen – He has a bit of an explosion on Monday Night Football catching all four of his targets for 72 yards and three touchdowns. He continues to share targets with Jack Doyle so don’t get too attached and fall into the recency bias web.

Dennis Pitta – He saw his second highest target total of the year (11) and didn’t let fantasy owners down. He finished the day catching nine of his 11 targets for 90 yards and two scores.

Travis Kelce – I was high on Kelce going into the week but the news of Jeremy Maclin being inactive put him at the top of my ranks on Sunday. He was impressive catching all eight of his targets for 140 yards despite not getting into the endzone.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Saints in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – Tampa Bay Bucanneers
Defense vs. the Pass – 24th

After back to back weeks holding the Rams and Panthers under 200 yards passing, the Saints were once again exposed through the air. Looking at the Player Lab Tool they rank 21st in Defense vs. the Pass and now face a Top 10 passing offense in Jameis Winston and the Bucs. It would be wise to get a ton of exposure to the highest projected game of the week and I lean Winston/Evans from a PTS/$ perspective as their roles are clear and now get an elite, high paced matchup.

Target the Dolphins in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Arizona Cardinals

This one is a bit of a layup but I am going to list anyway in case you were thinking of fading DJ. The Dolphins rank 28th in Defense vs. the Rush and have allowed the opponent to rush for 100+ yards in three straight games. Look for David Johnson to get heavy usage in the offense once again with a great shot to hit 100 yards rushing for the first time since Week 11. Either way, he will get his yards and fantasy points making him an elite play regardless of price.

Thursday Night Football

Oakland Raiders(10-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)
Favorite – KC (-3)
Vegas Total – 46

Offensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
OAK – 7th in Rushing(114.6 yards/game), 4th in Passing(277.1 yards/game)
KC – 22nd in Rushing(98.8 yards/game), 13th in Passing(234.6 yards/game)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA/Yards Per Game)
OAK – 28th vs. the Rush(124.8 yards/game), 19th vs. the Pass(264.8 yards/game)
KC – 19th vs. the Rush(121.9 yards/game), 12th vs. the Pass(263 yards/game)

This week on Thursday Night Football we get a critical AFC West matchup between two positive trending teams. The Raiders are coming in having won six straight games and with a 10-2 record hold a one-game lead over Kansas City. The Chiefs are also coming in hot winning two straight and seven of their last eight games. With the way the AFC is shaking out it is very likely the winner of the division will get a bye in the playoffs while the the other team would get a wildcard spot.

This game is also the second meeting between these teams as the Chiefs got the better of the Raiders 26-10 in soggy conditions back in Week 6. One trend I have been reading a ton about the last two seasons is the advantage to the defenses in the second meeting between division rivals. The combination of this trend and the short week leaves us with one of the lower Vegas totals (46) of the week. For me, it is going to be another week where I play multiple cash games and GPP’s without touching any players in the Thursday game.

If you are playing Thursday players there are a few to consider:

At the QB position I prefer Derek Carr who is facing a much better pace situation, projected for more passes, and has been much better for fantasy all season. It is unclear how the Raiders will play their wide receivers against the Chiefs with MCB Marcus Peters playing over 90% of his snaps on the defense’s left side. It is most likely Michael Crabtree gets the short straw as he plays over 50% of his snaps on the offense’s right side. This could certainly open things up for Amari Cooper who could matchup against Phillip Gaines who is one of the worst ranked corners in the league. Stay tuned leading up to the game.

Both running backs are a little more valuable on DraftKings than on FanDuel and if I had to choose one I would take Spencer Ware. With the Chiefs being a home favorite the projected game script is in his favor. He also torched this Raiders defense back in Week 6 rushing for 131 yards on 24 carries and adding a touchdown.

The Raiders have been better than average against the TE position lately so in a projected low scoring game I will be avoiding Travis Kelce at his rising salary.

Both defenses would be in play in a good situation with a low projected total in the second game of the division series. Be careful with what stats you look at though as low scoring doesn’t always equal fantasy points for a defense. While both teams rank near the top in takeaways (Interceptions/Fumble Recoveries) they both also rank near the bottom in giveaways. There are more favorable opportunities for Defensive plays in the Sunday slate.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

It’s absolutely crazy that 12 weeks are already in the books. With Week 13 on the horizon there are just five weeks left in the regular season. Add in two good weeks of playoff DFS and we are getting down to the end and it makes me sad.

I have been having an up and down season and sit with a small profit but feel I have learned more in these 12 weeks than in my previous 5+ years of fantasy football combined. A lot of it has to do with the amount of research I have been able to do as I prep to write articles on a weekly basis. One of the biggest tools that has contributed to my growth and success as both a writer and player has been the Player Lab. Getting all the relevant stats and projections all in one spot combined with the fully customizable Player Lab and Lineup Optimizer has significantly reduced my research time and increased my lineup construction time. Below I am going to list a few of my favorite filters I have been using to construct tournament lineup stacks.

This one is pretty straight forward. I like to narrow the field down by starting with a filter around 48+ total points. Most weeks this gives us a large number of options but there are weeks where you will have to expand this a bit. You can customize these number’s by hitting the gear on the right-hand side of the filter. There are instances I won’t use this filter like when I am writing up the contrarian stack.

The default setting is 20th or worse for the defense which will eliminate right around 63% of the field. Most weeks this will work just fine, but if the search results still provide multiple options I will then bump the filter up to 25th or worse.

Finally, I love adding the High Team Passing and TD % filters and starting at 70% or greater. This narrows quarterbacks and passing games down to teams who rely on passing a high % of the time. When trying to go contrarian these are the two primary filters I use and target a game with a low total or a projected low ownership, which typically go hand in hand. I then try to target a quarterback who is projected for 35+ passes.

There are definitely a ton more filters to customize when constructing your own models but these are the key ones that I use on a weekly basis. I lean to these four mainly due to the fact that all of them carry over through all positions making it easy to narrow down a stacking team rather than individual players. We will get into that in next week’s article.

Let’s now dig into Week 13 using these filters on the Player Lab and find some stacks that can help get to GPP glory.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Options – Willie Snead
Secondary Options – Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas
Contrarian Option – Tim Hightower

The Saints have been discussed a lot throughout the week which has most people thinking chalk, chalk, chalk. While I do think Drew Brees will be one of the highest owned quarterbacks this week, I do believe that there are ways to differentiate yourself. For Brees, everything lines up for a monster game in the slates highest projected total with the Saints sitting around six-point favorites at home. Speaking of the Superdome let’s take a look at Brees home game logs this season on DraftKings:
Week 12 vs. Rams – 36.5 DK Pts
Week 10 vs. Broncos – 26.02 DK Pts
Week 8 vs. Seahawks – 20.7 DK Pts
Week 6 vs. Panthers – 36.6 DK Pts
Week 3 vs. Falcons – 29.94 DK Pts
Week 1 vs. Raiders – 35.42 DK Pts

As you can see, he has provided a floor of 20 points against one of the best defenses in the league. I will take that all day and then some tomorrow. Good news is he is projected to hit closer to his ceiling this week as the Lions rank 31st in Defense vs. the Pass. On DraftKings he has a realistic chance to get close to 5x value this week. I have Willie Snead listed as the elite stacking option for a few reasons. First of all, he is projected to face Quandre Diggs who is one of the worst slot corners in the league. There is also a ton of buzz around a bounce back spot for Brandin Cooks this week, but I am not totally buying into it. Even though the Lions rank 31st vs. the Pass, Cooks will most likely face Darius Slay who has been their best corner and one of the top ranked corners when looking at PFF’s WR/CB chart. The target share has been really close between the three receivers this season as all of them are averaging around seven targets per week. This makes it tough to nail down which one is going to blow up each week. I feel Snead has the best shot and could very well be the lowest owned of the three. If you want to go completely contrarian add RB Tim Hightower to your lineup. If the Lions can keep the game close or take the lead he could very well see 5+ targets once again like he did two weeks ago against the Panthers. Mark Ingram is still not practicing and was out-touched by Hightower last week making me like the pick even more.

Indianapolis Colts
QB – Andrew Luck
Elite Option – TY Hilton
Value Option – Donte Moncrief

Sticking with the same filters as above we will take a closer look at the Monday night game and the Indianapolis Colts offense. Andrew Luck sat out last week’s Thanksgiving day game vs. the Steelers as he was still in the league’s concussion protocol. He has now had plenty of time to rest and although he was just a limited participant at practice this week, he is fully expected to practice in full on Friday. Be sure to check the news throughout the weekend. There is certainly risk involved in stacking Luck and the Colts which will most likely leave him under-owned in a Sunday-Monday slate.

Breaking down the matchup using the
Player Lab there is definitely a lot to love about the Colts this week. First of all, they have no real threat in the running game as Frank Gore is averaging just 60 yards per game on the ground. This adequately explains why the Colts rely on Passing for over 70% of their total yards and touchdown production. Even if they did have a better running game the Jets rank
2nd overall in Defense vs. the Rush. This should force Luck to have to throw a ton which shows with his projection of 44 pass attempts. While the Jets dominate the run defense, they bleed yards through the air ranking 30th in Defense vs. the Pass. The Jets are projected to shadow both TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief for the most part but that doesn’t worry me much. Both Buster Skrine and Darrelle Revis have been disappointing this season ranking in the bottom 25 out of over 100 corners according to Pro Football Focus. Hilton was injured in the Thanksgiving Day game and has yet to practice this week. If he gets a full practice in on Friday I will feel comfortable pairing him with Luck to create some huge upside. If Hilton was to sit out that will present extra targets for Donte Moncrief. He hasn’t been putting up the yardage totals we would like but since returning from injury in Week 8 he has scored a touchdown in four straight games. I fully expect this streak to continue on Monday Night Football.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Option – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Jimmy Graham

It is crazy how one week in fantasy football can change the perception of a certain player or team. The Seahawks were one of my top stacks last week and completely let me and anyone who rostered them down. This week they fall into my Contrarian section as recency bias and a perceived tough matchup will keep a lot of the public off the Seahawks this week. I say perceived tough matchup as some people still believe the Panthers have a top defense. This just isn’t the case anymore, especially without Josh Norman who left in the offseason and Luke Kuechly who has been out for two weeks with a concussion. The rushing defense hasn’t really been affected as they rank 6th on the Player Lab Tool. It has been the passing defense taking the biggest hit as they rank 21st in that area allowing the fourth most passing yards per game(275.2). Look for Wilson to get back on track and makes an elite GPP play with his main target Doug Baldwin who did catch seven of his eight targets last week and led the team by a mile receiving 7.1 targets per week. Carolina has also been generous to the tight end this season ranking 24th according to the Player Lab so if you are keen on spending up at the position this week Jimmy Graham makes an excellent GPP play with 100 yard and multi-touchdown upside.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Doug Martin

Going with a cheap defense this week that comes with a ton of upside. The Bucs defense is near minimum price on both sites and I am not sure why. Over the last three weeks, they have recorded five interceptions, four fumble recoveries, 10 sacks and have not allowed an opponent (SEA, KC, CHI) to throw for more than 261 yards. It will be a bit tougher on the road in San Diego this week but the Chargers currently lead the league with 23 giveaways, 12 interceptions, and 11 fumbles lost. Look for constant pressure from the Bucs front four which should once again produce multiple sacks and possibly multiple turnovers.

After an eight-week absence due to injury Doug Martin will make his fourth straight start and looks to be getting stronger each week. He has received 20+ carries in back to back weeks and recorded a season-high 87 yards last week vs. a tough Seahawks defense. He gets a much easier test this week as the Chargers who rank 17th in Defense vs. Rush.

I don’t fully trust Martin in cash games but think he will come in under-owned in tournaments with many people paying up for the excellent matchups of the elite runners.

Thanks again for reading. If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock on Sunday you can reach out to us o on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

First of all, I hope everyone had a terrific Thanksgiving. As a Canadian I really enjoy the American holiday and to be honest it has everything to do with football. Other than opening night where we get two games, this is the only other week with multiple Thursday games and it runs all day! It was a horrible start to the day for me as a Vikings fan as I spent the first three hours of day yelling at the ultra conservative play calling of Mike Zimmer’s offense. Even from a fantasy perspective it was a disappointing game with a 16-13 finish. Anquan Boldin was about the only highlight as he caught seven of his nine targets for 69 yards and one of the two offensive touchdowns in the game.

As predicted the highest scoring game on Thanksgiving ended being in Dallas where the Cowboys beat the Redskins 31-26. Game flow favored the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott who rushed 20 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns. This helped the Redskins passing game as they trailed the entire game and were forced to throw a ton. Kirk Cousins ended up completing 41 passes on 53 attempts for a whopping 449 yards and three touchdowns. Because of the high volume there were multiple targets in the Redskins offense that paid off including Jordan Reed (10 of 12 for 95 yards & 2 TD), DeSean Jackson (4 of 8 for 118 yards & 1 TD) and Jamison Crowder (8 of 10 for 88 yards).

In the final Thanksgiving game we saw things pretty much play out the way we thought as the Steelers rolled over the Colts 28-7. We discussed targeting the Steelers, especially in the run game, and Le’Veon Bell didn’t disappoint getting 23 carries and totaling 120 and a touchdown on the ground while also securing four of his five targets for an additional 22 yards. It all counts. I also mentioned running a Ben Roethlisberger/Antonio Brown stack in GPP’s and they delivered on minimal volume this week. Big Ben completed just 14 of 20 passes for 221 yards but tossed three touchdowns, all to Brown. Impressive performance all around for the Steelers elite playmakers.

Looking at the stacks from last week things went quite well for the most part. We will start with the bad and the clears throat Seahawks. They scored five points! Looking for a positive, I think they present a great GPP value this week at home to the struggling Panthers.

One thing that worked out in a big way was the Monday Night Football combination of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams. Even with Aaron Ripkowski taking in a one-yard rush for a touchdown, Rodgers completed 30 of 39 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Adams benefited the most catching five of his six targets for 113 yards and two touchdowns while Jordy had a productive game catching eight of his 12 targets for 91 yards. That’s 17.1 DraftKings points where you get rewarded a full point for a reception. Even in a tough matchup vs. the Texans and potential hamstring ailment for A-Rod, you can continue to ride the Packer passing game if he is in the starting lineup.

The running back/defense combination worked out for the most part. The Chargers defense totaled 13 fantasy points with three interceptions, one sack and just 13 points allowed. They certainly paid off their low to mid-tier price across the industry. Melvin Gordon didn’t quite see the volume we expected with this game flow but was efficient totaling 70 yards and catching all four of his targets in the passing game. Had he scored it would have been a different story but with the expectations going in it was a mediocre performance for the level of ownership.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Note – We already discussed Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins who tore it up so we will touch on a few other options below

Trevor Siemian
He was quiet but efficient through the first three-quarters but exploded with two big plays in the fourth quarter to Emmanuel Sanders and Bennie Fowler. He ended up completing 20 of his 34 pass attempts for 368 yards and three touchdowns. His yardage total (2nd 300+ yard game) was a product of the big plays and the added overtime period so don’t expect production like this every week.

Drew Brees
It was Brees seventh game of the season throwing for 300+ yards and also his seventh game throwing for three or more touchdowns. The only odd part about the performance was that he failed to target Brandin Cooks once in the passing game. After watching the film, I am chalking it up to the defensive game plan of the Rams and won’t shy away from Cooks in the future.

Matt Barkley
The USC product had a very eventful first start in the NFL that could have been much better if not for two red zone interceptions. He did end up crushing his value in garbage time throwing two late fourth quarter touchdowns after the Titans had already taken a commanding lead.

RB
Mark Ingram
Even though he was out-touched by Tim Hightower he was the more productive back in the blowout win for the Saints. He totaled 146 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while also catching one of his two targets in the passing game for 21 yards and another touchdown.

LeSean McCoy
Even with injury concerns leading up to the game, Shady McCoy was one of just four running backs in Week 12 to total 100+ yards on the ground. It didn’t look good early as the Jags contained him to under 10 yards in the first half but the Bills made the necessary changes down the stretch. McCoy ended up with 103 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and also caught both of his targets in the passing game for an additional 31 yards.

Colin Kaepernick
I didn’t mention him in the quarterback section so I decided to mention his outstanding fantasy performance here. Kaep was not only one of just four players to rush for 100+ yards this week. He also threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in another 49er loss. He may not be a great “real life” QB but he is sure becoming a great “fantasy’ QB down the stretch.

WR
Davante Adams
He was the third-most targeted receiver in the Packers offense on Monday night but he was by far the most productive. He caught five of his six targets for 113 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With a low target share he will continue to be a GPP only play with inconsistent production.

Michael Thomas
With Cooks seeing zero targets on Sunday, it was rookie Thomas stealing the show with a game-high ten targets. He showed elite upside catching nine of them for 108 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Thomas has now caught eight of his ten red zone targets and leads the team with five touchdowns in that area. Look out!

Mike Evans
One of the best plays of the week at the WR position was Mike Evans. He came in around 5% owned in tournaments due to his perceived tough matchup against the Seahawks. I wouldn’t blame you if you faded the game (I was on Seahawks stack) as it ended up with just 19 total points. The problem is Evans torched the Seahawks secondary, catching eight of his 11 targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns. It was his ninth double-digit target game of the season as he continues to lead the league averaging 11.8 per game and is an elite play week in and week out.

TE
Travis Kelce
The touchdowns continue to be hard to come by for Kelce, but he did record eight catches on a season-high 15 targets for 101 yards. It was the second straight week Kelce had reached 100+ yards receiving and the third time in five games. We can deal without the touchdowns if he continues to rack up the yardage like this and his price stays affordable on both sites.

Jordan Reed
It didn’t look good early as Reed exited the game and was seen in a sling on the sideline. Turns out he has a Grade 3 AC Joint separation. Well, he returned to action anyway and proceeded to catch 10 of his 12 targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. His status moving forward is unknown but Reed says he will most likely play through the pain the rest of the season. If he does sit out this upcoming week, Vernon Davis would become a near must play on both sites.

Josh Hill
The snap count for tight ends swayed in favor of Hill this past weekend. Hill saw a bump and played in 78% of the Saints offensive snaps while Coby Fleener only seen 24%. Hill ended up catching all six of his targets for 74 yards and 13.4 DK/10.4 FD points. If this trend continues, Hill makes an excellent punt play at the tight end position.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Detroit Lions in the Pass Game
This week’s Matchup – New Orleans Saints
Defense vs. the Pass – 31st

The Lions have won three straight and continue to lead the NFC North. For the most part it has been the offense carrying them, especially the passing game as the defense ranks near the bottom in most categories. Looking at Player Lab Tool they rank 24th against the Run and 31st against the pass. They were not really tested the last four games facing the Jaguars, Texans and Vikings twice. They will be more than tested this week facing Drew Brees and the 5th ranked passing attack in football. There is a good reason this game has the highest projected total of the week.

Target San Francisco 49ers in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Chicago Bears

Here we are back to take a shot at the 49ers rush defense. They have been a bit better as of late, holding opponents under 100 yards in two of their last three games but still rank dead last in rush defense and it isn’t even close. They are allowing 171 yards per game and the next ranked team (CLE) is allowing just 140.6 per game. That’s 30 yards a game difference. Incredible.

This is a good sign for RB Jordan Howard who gets a shot at them this weekend. The rookie has impressed with four 100 yard games so far. He is averaging 76.6 yards per game and has also received four or more targets in the passing game on seven occasions. The game itself has a low total (44) with a close spread so expect closer to 20 carries this week for Howard.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys(10-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings(6-5)
Favorite – DAL(-3)
Vegas Total – 44
Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
DAL – 250.4 Passing Yards per Game(16th), 157.3 Rushing Yards per Game(2nd)
MIN – 223.8 Passing Yards per Game(24th), 71.1 Rushing Yards per Game(32nd)

Defensive Rankings(Player Lab Rankings)
DAL – Defense vs. the Pass(23rd), Defense vs the Rush(8th)
MIN – Defense vs. the Pass(4th), Defense vs the Rush(12th)

This week’s Thursday Night Football matchup brings us two teams headed in opposite directions. The Cowboys have been rolling along all season since losing in Week 1. They have won 10 straight and lead the entire NFC with an impressive 10-1 record. On the other side of the ball, we have the Vikings who came out of the box on fire winning five straight before their bye week. Since the bye week they have dropped five of their last six games and now sit a game out of the NFC North. It is highly unlikely more than one team will come out of the NFC North so look for a full effort on Thursday night in a near do or die situation.

Looking at the Vegas line for this game it is projected to be a low scoring, close matchup. The Vikings have been terribly disappointing on offense, but have taken the next step with their young defensive core. They have been tough against the Pass(12th) and even more resilient against the Run(4th). Even with a solid matchup it will most likely be Ezekiel Elliott once again carrying the load. He has shown us that he is pretty much matchup-proof with the elite offensive line in front of him and he is also an excellent receiver and could easily see 5+ targets this week. Dez Bryant faces a tough matchup in Xavier Rhodes so if you want to attack the passing game take a value shot with Cole Beasley who has four or more receptions in 11 of his 12 games this season.

From a Viking perspective, there is absolutely no reason to target their running game as they rank dead last in the league and get a tough matchup vs. the Cowboys Top 10 rushing defense. It will be a bit contrarian but you can take a shot with Sam Bradford and Stefon Diggs (if he plays). The Cowboys weak spot is through the air as they rank 23rd overall vs. the Pass. They have surrendered 400+ passing yard in two of their last three games. Bradford is certainly not Big Ben or Cousins so don’t expect career-high numbers, but I could easily see 250+ yards and multiple touchdowns this week. If Diggs is to sit out again take a close look at Adam Thielen or Cordarrelle Patterson.

It is a difficult week to target fantasy output on Thursday, so I will be limiting my exposure to just a couple of lineups. In one lineup I will be targeting the Vikings pass game which should be forced to throw a ton in the second half. Bring on the garbage time! In one of my other Thurs-Mon lineups I am going to fade the Thursday game all together in hopes of a low-scoring, dry fantasy point game. I love this strategy when the TNF game is projected to be low scoring. I will throw this lineup mostly in 50/50’s and double ups as so many people will game stack the Thursday game just to get the action. Take advantage of these people!

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Value Option – Davante Adams

Kicking things off in Week 12 we are going to go a bit contrarian with the Packers on Monday Night Football. I gravitate to this game for a few reasons, all of which are outlined in my selected filters on the Player Lab Tool this week. First of all, it has the third highest projected Vegas total (48) of the week with the struggling Packers coming in as four-point dogs. For game flow purposes this immediately has mean leaning Aaron Rodgers and Packers passing game. Despite the overall team struggles, Rodgers has been fantasy gold averaging 318 passing yards and three touchdowns per game over the past five weeks. Looking back at the Player Lab Tool I also set the “High Team Passing Yards%” and “High Team Passing TD%” filter to 70%+ this week to get a look teams that rely heavily on the pass. With no rushing game in Green Bay since the loss of Eddie Lacy the Packers have been one of the most pass-happy teams in the league. They rely on passing for 89% of their overall touchdowns and 72% of their total yardage. The elite option to pair up with Rodgers is going to be Jordy Nelson who has been a touchdown monster this season with nine coming into this game including one in four straight games. Breaking down the WR/CB matchups it appears Davante Adams will draw the Eagles weakest corner(via PFF) Nolan Carroll opening up some value in the Packers stack.

The reason this stack is going to be contrarian is the fact that the Eagles have the #1 defense against the pass when looking at the Player Lab Tool. This combined with the fact that the game is not on the main slate means some very low-ownership and a great opportunity to cash in. I am not totally ignoring the Eagles defense but find the volume and projected ownership too hard to pass up this week.

New England Patriots
QB – Tom Brady
Elite Option – Julian Edelman
Value Option – James White

Next up on the Player Lab Tool I tried to narrow the field down by looking for quarterbacks going up against weaker defenses against the pass who are projected for 40+ attempts and have been extremely efficient so far in 2016. This spit out two options this week. I will be avoiding the Dolphins, for the most part, as I think Jay Ajayi is in for another big week taking away value from Ryan Tannehill and the passing game. I will be loading up on Tom Brady who is the other QB showing up under the above filters. Since returning from his “Deflategate Suspension” to open the season Brady has been on a mission throwing for 300 or more yards or multiple touchdowns in all six games and is third in the league with an extremely impressive 70.4% completion percentage. Even without Gronk last week and a limited output from Martellus Bennett, Brady still threw four touchdowns in a beat down of the 49ers. He is unlikely to have Gronk again this week so look for Julian Edelman to continue to see a high % of the target share. He is coming off a season-high 17 targets, catching eight of them for 77 yards and a touchdown. A similar line could be in the cards this week. What sways me towards the Pats the most this week is the fact that the Jets are elite (2nd) against the run but severely struggle against the pass (28th). Lock and load!

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Option – Doug Baldwin
Secondary Options – Jimmy Graham

If you are looking to go a little off the board this week take a look at the Seahawks, who will be taking the big trip to Florida to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The reason this falls under the contrarian section this week is because it falls outside of most or all of the filters this week. The projected total is one of the lower ones of the week, the Bucs sit right in the middle of the league (16th) in Defense vs. the Pass, and Wilson is only projected for around 35 passing attempts. So what is there to like about the Hawks? Wilson is starting to heat up after injuries hampered his play early in the season. After only attempting no more than three rushes in four straight weeks he more than doubles those averages in Week 11 with eight attempts. He has been consistent with 20+ fantasy points in three straight games and has shown upside that we like for tournaments. With C.J. Prosise out, Thomas Rawls will step back in as the lead dog in the backfield but he could be somewhat limited in his second game back due to his nine-week absence due to injury. The elite stack with Wilson this week is going to be Doug Baldwin who plays out of the slot and has huge home run and multi-touchdown potential. He also has one of the best matchups in the entire league this week as he is projected to face Vernon Hargreaves, one of the worst rated corners in the league (via PFF). If you want to go even more contrarian pay up at TE and add Jimmy Graham to your stack. He has been quiet with under 50 yards receiving in the last two games but has scored a touchdown three touchdowns over his last three weeks and has broken the 100-yard barrier three times this season.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

San Diego Chargers & Melvin Gordon

This week for the RB/Def combo I looked closer at the Player Lab Tool and entered a few filters to break things down. I started by looking for running backs with a “High Load %” above 70%, averaging 80+ rushing yards per week and projected to get the ball 20+ times in Week 12. Those filters narrowed things down to two options. We all know about David Johnson and his elite abilities rushing and as a receiver but I lean Melvin Gordon for a few reasons. The game flow fits Gordon a bit better as the Chargers are favorites and Gordon is the only running back in the league with a Load % greater than 80%. That is due to the team losing Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen early in the season but it doesn’t matter why he gets the bulk of the production, just that he does!

Another reason I lean Gordon this week is the defensive aspect to the stack. I will be avoiding the Cardinals to will be traveling to the dome in Atlanta to face one of the top offenses in the league. I would rather take my chances with the Charges defense. They usually come in low- owned and are a very affordable option. They are more than just a safe floor as they have recorded double-digit fantasy points in three of their last five games.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

It was a very interesting and mostly forgettable week in the NFL. From a record setting 11 PAT’s missed on Sunday, to multiple injuries to key players, to Russell Wilson catching a touchdown pass from Doug Baldwin we nearly saw everything. There were only two games that saw a combined point total exceed 50 points and if you told me before kickoff that one of them would have been the matchup between two top 10 defenses in the Vikings and Cardinals I would have called you crazy! Despite the wind in Washington Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins combined for 726 yards through the air and six touchdowns. Unfortunately for the struggling Packers Robert Kelley ran all over them for 137 yards and three more touchdowns as the Redskins beat up on the Packers 42-24, handing them their fourth straight loss.

The defenses we talked about targeting in last weeks early article turned out nicely. Even with Tom Brady taking control and throwing four touchdowns, my target of LaGarrette Blount still ended up with 19 carries and 124 yards rushing. I also mentioned jumping on board with the Steelers in a matchup vs. the Browns but unfortunately the weather really limited the passing as Ben Roethlisberger ended up with just 167 yards passing. The defense played a big factor with eight sacks and a pick-six on the day. The game flow presented opportunity to RB Le’Veon Bell who rushed it 28 times for a 146 yards and a touchdown. He also caught eight of his nine targets for another 55 yards. Antonio Brown was somewhat quiet catching eight of his 10 targets for just 76 yards.

Both main stacks from last week were destroyed by the wind. We already discussed the Steelers and if you played Bell in cash games like I did you may have at least broke even. The other stack turned out better for the Giants, who won their 5th straight game, than it did for our fantasy lineups. Eli Manning was efficient completing 21 passes on 36 attempts for two touchdowns and no interceptions but just 46 yards of that production went to Odell Beckham Jr.. The one highlight was value play Sterling Shepard who picked up five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown and is being relied on more consistently in the Giants offense. It was Rashad Jennings stealing the show with his second straight game with 15 + carries and 80+ yards. He also scored a touchdown on the ground and added five receptions for an additional 44 yards.

Injury Report

With so many key injuries, I am going to highlight a few them and some possible values with their absences before moving on to the game balls of the week.

A.J. Green – Green put up a goose egg before exiting with a hamstring injury on Sunday. It was originally feared he was lost for the season but the tear turns out to be minor. He is considered week to week. The biggest beneficiary in his loss will be rookie Tyler Boyd who has seen his role grow each week and became Andy Dalton’s favorite target after Green was ruled out. Against a tough Buffalo defense he finished with six catches for 54 yards and a touchdown.

Giovani Bernard – The Bengals definitely got hit the hardest as they will also lose Bernard for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. Jeremy Hill will see a boost in value in Bernard’s absence and should easily see 15+ carries going forward.

Ryan Mathews & Darren Sproles – Mathews injured his knee it was seen with a brace in the locker room. The Eagles don’t play until Monday night so take what you will from the coach saying he is just day to day. Sproles has a cracked rib and while he is expected to play through the pain, don’t expect him to see the same usage in the offense. Wendell Smallwood will be the biggest beneficiary if Mathews is indeed out and Sproles is limited this week. He is value priced on both sites and facing a Packers team who have given up 150+ yards in back to back weeks.

C.J. Prosise – He suffered a fractured scapula and will be out at least 2-3 weeks. This opens the door for the return to a full workload for Thomas Rawls who has been out of action since Week 2.

Robert Woods – Why am I mentioning Woods who has been fantasy irrelevant for all but one week this season? Because it may spell the return of Sammy Watkins who has been out since Week 2. He should be avoided this week as the chances are very low he gets more than 50% of the snaps after being out so long.

Lesean McCoy – After picking up 33 yards and a touchdown, McCoy exited the game with a dislocated thumb and had surgery Monday morning. His status is up in the air at this point and if he ends up sitting out Mike Gillislee would become a solid value play on both sites.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB
Aaron Rodgers – Led the way at quarterback with 29.3 FD/32.3 DK points on the back of a 351 yard/3 TD performance on Sunday night. Despite the Packers struggles, Rodgers has been exceptional for fantasy lately and has attempted 38+ passes in seven straight games with multiple touchdowns in six of them.

Kirk Cousins – In the same game it was Cousins helping lead the Redskins to victory with 375 yards passing and three touchdowns despite the heavy winds in Washington. It was the third time in four games Cousins has thrown for 300+ yards which just happens to be a bonus on DraftKings.

Dak Prescott – The #3 spot was tough this week with multiple options (Brady, Carr, Mariota) right on the fringe. I lean Prescott as the rookie was extremely efficient completing 27 of his 36 passes for 301 yards and three touchdowns.

RB
David Johnson – He continues to be one of the best all-around backs in the league with another masterful all-purpose game. He rushed it 22 times for 103 yards and a touchdown and caught seven of his 11 targets for another 57 yards and a touchdown. He sits just nine yards behind the Cowboys Ezekiel Elliott for the all-purpose yards lead.

Le’Veon Bell – It was a product of the wind limiting the pass and the fact Bell is a dominant force in the league. The Browns knew what was coming all day and still couldn’t stop it. Bell ended up rushing for 146 yards on 28 attempts (5.2 average) and also caught eight of his nine targets for another 55 yards in the passing game.

Rob Kelley – Fat Rob, the undrafted rookie out of Tulane, had a huge game against the Packers on Sunday night. He ended up with 137 yards and three touchdowns on the ground and now has received 20+ carries in three straight games for the Redskins.

WR
Pierre Garcon – If you stacked Garcon with Cousins this week you probably have a fat wallet this week. He didn’t come out of nowhere by any means as he has produced some double digit fantasy outputs this season but no one expected 100+ yards. It was his first one since week 3 of the 2014 season. Don’t expect him to be highlighted in this section again this season.

Rishard Mathews – Despite not scoring a touchdown he recorded his biggest yardage day of the season with 122 on nine receptions. Speaking of touchdowns, he has scored six in his last seven games. Keep rolling him out there at a price right around $6K on both sites.

Dez Bryant – Bryant had another productive outing catching six of eight targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns. He has now picked up 100 yards or a touchdown in five of his last six games.

TE
Jared Cook – Don’t put too much stock into his monster game Sunday (six catches on 11 targets for 105 yards/1 TD). The wind limited the downfield attack forcing Rodgers to attempt a ton of short passes. He also faces a tough Eagles defense who are even better at home while many people will hop aboard the train. Easy fade spot for me in Week 12.

Travis Kelce – He continues to come in under owned and paid off this week catching seven of his nine targets for his second 100 yard game in the past four weeks.

Eric Ebron – He continues to provide excellent value with his third straight game with 70+ yards receiving. He also chipped in with a rush at the goal line and picking up the touchdown.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the Jets in the Pass Game
This weeks Matchup – New England Patriots

Looking at the Player Lab Tool the Jets rank 3rd in stopping the run but have really struggled against the pass ranking 27th overall. They have done a good job limiting weaker quarterbacks but have struggled against the upper tier guys. Big Ben put up 380 yards and four touchdowns, Russell Wilson put up 309 yards and three touchdowns and even Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. They get their toughest test of the season in Week 12 as Tom Brady and the Patriots come to town. Brady has been unstoppable since returning from his suspension with 1,915 yards passing and a 16-1 touchdown to interception ratio. He is averaging 26.3 DK/24.3 FD points per game. Brady is projected for 45+ passing attempts and is the clear #1 option this weekend.

Target the Colts in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – Pittsburgh Steelers

Without even looking at the Player Lab Tool< we all know Le’Veon Bell is an elite running back in this league. Look closer and he should be in 100% of your lineups on Thursday. He is facing the worst run defense according to our metrics at Lineup Labs in a very game script heavy setup for Bell. The Colts are likely to be without Andrew Luck who is in the league’s concussion protocol. This will almost certainly mean Bell should be able to hit his projection of 20 rushes while adding his usual 5-10 receptions. Another thing to point out is his low TD Dependency of 15% compared to other elite options like Elliott (30%), Murray (34%), Johnson (34%). This is great as he doesn’t necessarily have to score to hit value.

Thursday Night Football

Happy Thanksgiving my American friends!

While many of you will be enjoying Turkey and the comfort of close family and friends I will have my eyes glued to the television for 12 straight hours. This will mark the first time since Week 1 where there will be multiple games and with so many comes a ton of different DFS slates and contests. Whether you prefer to play just Thursday games or combine them with Sunday-Mon games, there is a wide range of offerings on both sites.

In this section I am going to be covering all three Thursday games with a quick preview of the matchups as well as some of the top DFS plays from each game. Let’s get started!

Minnesota Vikings(6-4) vs. Detroit Lions(6-4)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
MIN – 223.8 Passing Yards Per Game(24th), 70.0 Rushing Yards Per Game(32nd)
DET – 252.2 Passing Yards Per Game(16th), 79.5 Rushing Yards Per Game(30th)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
MIN – 12th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 4th in DVOA Passing Defense
DET – 24th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 32nd in DVOA Passing Defense

The day kicks off with a huge NFC North tilt between two teams with identical 6-4 records. If the playoffs were to start today the Lions would win the division as they own the tie break beating the Vikings earlier in the season. For the Lions Thanksgiving Day games are nothing new as it has been a tradition for them since 1934. This year is bigger than most as there is plenty on the line when looking at the playoff picture. Of all the Thursday games this one has the lowest Vegas total (43) which makes perfect sense as both teams rank in the bottom half f the league in points per game and as you can see above neither of them have overly impressive offenses. For cash games I would limit my exposure to this game but for GPP it may be an attractive source if you are wanting to go a bit contrarian.

For the Vikings, it is all about the pass as they have little to no value in the run game but are presented with a terrific matchup through the air as the Lions rank dead last in DVOA against the pass. Look for Sam Bradford to target Stefon Diggs at a high rate should he be cleared for the game. Diggs was limited on Monday and did not practice on Tuesday. Be sure to monitor the situation before lineup lock. If he is ruled out, look for some extra target share for TE Kyle Rudolph who has been a touchdown dependant value at this position. Adam Thielen would also see a boost if Diggs is out. He has been receiving around five targets per game and has made some terrific catches and has scored in two straight games.

For the Lions, it is a little more unclear, especially in the passing game. Matthew Stafford has been very conservative in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense and hasn’t topped 300 yards passing since Week 3. I don’t see it happening this week either against a Vikings defense that ranks 4th in DVOA against the pass. They have limited teams to just an average of just 223 yards through the air. The other problem is the number of viable targets Stafford has to throw to. It starts with his wide receivers Golden Tate and Marvin Jones Jr. who have flip-flopped salaries and production. Jones started out hot when Stafford was taking downfield shots, but since he has become more conservative it has been Tate getting the largest target share. Eric Ebron makes a viable TE play this week at a very affordable price and has topped 70 yards receiving in three straight games. He hasn’t scored but that level of consistency is perfect for cash games.

Washington Redskins(6-3-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys(9-1)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
WSH – 301.4 Passing Yards Per Game(3rd), 117.1 Rushing Yards Per Game(10th)
DAL – 256.4 Passing Yards Per Game(15th), 156.7 Rushing Yards Per Game(2nd)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
WSH – 29th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 17th in DVOA Passing Defense
DAL – 8th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 28th in DVOA Passing Defense

Game two on Thursday presents another huge divisional matchup. The NFC East-leading Cowboys travel to Washington to take on the Redskins. The Cowboys have been red hot since losing in Week 1, winning nine straight games and leading the NFC with just six games remaining. The Redskins are not out of the division by any means and a win on Thursday afternoon would put them right back in the race. As for the Wild Card, they currently occupy the last spot in the conference ahead of the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Eagles. This game will go a long way to shaping the entire NFC playoff picture and with an Over/Under of 51 should be filled with fantasy gold.

With the Cowboys opening as seven-point favorites with their 2nd ranked rushing game going up against the Redskins 28th ranked defense, we can expect a huge workload once again from rookie Ezekiel Elliott. He currently leads the league in rushing with 1,102 yards and has also hauled in 22 receptions on 27 targets for an additional 280 yards. The Cowboys have an elite offensive line and have allowed Zeke to average a touchdown per game through his first 10 NFL games. The Redskins should be able to keep this one close with their prolific passing game meaning there is also value in stacking Dak Prescott with Dez Bryant. Due to game flow during the winning streak Dak has not attempted 40 passes in a game since Week 1 but has recorded 18+ fantasy points in each of the Cowboys last nine wins. Dez has been excellent since returning to the lineup with two 100 yard games and four touchdowns in four games. If you are looking for some cash game value you can also consider Cole Beasley who despite not logging a 100-yard game this season has double-digit fantasy points in eight of his ten games (7 on FD where it’s .5 point PPR).

On the Redskins side of the ball, you are going to want to load up on the passing game. While RB Rob Kelley has been a world destroyer lately he is going to be highly owned and facing a Top 10 defense against the run. As I mentioned earlier, the Skins are also seven point dogs, so game script is also not in Kelley’s favor. Don’t get me wrong, if you are playing a Thursday only slate he is definitely in consideration in GPP formats. The key to the Redskins offense is going to be Kirk Cousins who has been red hot lately with 300+ passing yards in three of his last four games with eight touchdowns in that time. For safety the top option for Cousins will be Jamison Crowder who has logged three 100 yard games in his last four games and has also scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. For GPP’s take a shot with Desean Jackson who is again being limited at practice this week but that didn’t stop him from scoring on four receptions last week against the Packers.
From a tight end perspective, Jordan Reed has been relatively quiet this season and has yet to top 100 yards and has just three scores. If you are playing a Thursday only slate he is a fine option, but I would fade him if you are playing a Thursday-Monday slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers(5-5) vs. Indianapolis Colts(5-5)

Offensive Rankings(Yards Per Game)
PIT – 268.2 Passing Yards Per Game(7th), 96.2 Rushing Yards Per Game(23rd)
IND – 260.8 Passing Yards Per Game(12th), 95.8 Rushing Yards Per Game(24th)

Defensive Rankings(DVOA Rankings)
PIT – 11th in DVOA Rushing Defense, 16th in DVOA Passing Defense
IND – 31st in DVOA Rushing Defense, 29th in DVOA Passing Defense

The final game of the day originally looked like it had shootout potential with Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck going head to head. That does not appear to be the case anymore as Luck is currently going through the league’s concussion protocol and is unlikely to play Thursday night. Due to this we saw the overall total drop with the spread tilting even more in the Steelers favor. Both teams come in with identical 5-5 records and both still have very realistic shots at their division titles. The Steelers are tied at the top of the AFC North with the Ravens while the Colts sit just one game back of the Texans in the AFC South.

For the Steelers, it is pretty clear who is going to get the bulk of the workload. Le’Veon Bell is an elite option and is a must play in all formats. Since returning in Week 4 Bell has scored double-digit fantasy points in all seven games and has 15+ fantasy points in all but one game. He has topped 140 yards rushing twice in those seven games and is an elite option in the passing game, catching 53 of his 65 targets for 415 yards and a touchdown. With game flow expected to be heavy in the Steelers favor we can expect 20+ carries from Bell. Game flow and weather held Big Ben down last week as he only recorded 167 yards passing. With a quick turnaround from Sunday I expect most people to avoid him due to recency bias which will make him an excellent GPP stacking option with Antonio Brown. The cost is high on the pair but the upside is tremendous. It could be a situation similar to *Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. Everyone and their dog expected LaGarrette Blount** to go wild and score multiple touchdowns on the 49ers and it ended up being Brady throwing four touchdowns with limited ownership. The slate is much smaller but the same scenario could play out. Be sure to roster at least one Big Ben/AB stack.

With Andrew Luck out of the picture expect Scott Tolzien to get the start for the Colts. He is dirt cheap and would allow for a ton of salary to spend elsewhere but beware. He hasn’t made a start in the NFL in over three years when he started back to back games for the Packers. The volume will most definitely be there, but it is hard to predict what we are going to get from Tolzien. The Luck news is going to be huge for the Colts offense. With the climbing price of Colts wide receivers TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief I think you have to avoid them if Tolzien gets the start unless you are looking to go ultra-contrarian in large field GPP’s.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool, and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
QB – Eli Manning
Elite Options – Odell Beckham Jr.
Value Option – Sterling Shepard

After entering the above filters into the Player Lab Tool this week it spit out two options, both of which I will be heavy on this week. I lead off with the Giants who come into Week 11 red hot winning four straight games to keep pace with the Cowboys in the NFC East. They are a terrific team to stack almost every week as they are such a throw heavy team. Looking at the Player Lab Tool you will notice that the Giants rely on passing for 78% of their total yards and 79% of their total touchdowns on offense. Eli Manning comes in with an affordable price due to inconsistency but is coming in on a roll throwing three or more touchdowns in three of his last four games. He benefits from having an elite WR in Odell Beckham Jr. who sits sixth in the league in targets per game (10.1) and has not had less than eight in any week this season. After starting the year off with four straight games without a touchdown, OBJ has exploded with six in his last five games. The Bears come in ranked 19th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool and have given up some big days to wide receivers this season. Take a look at Weeks 1, 5 and 7 for instance. Looking at the Pro Football Focus Player Grades for Cornerbacks the Bears only have one (Bryce Callahan) who ranks among the Top 50 and he hasn’t touched the field since Week 7. They will most likely lock Tracy Porter on OBJ which could end up being a big mismatch as Porter has been dealing with a knee injury. The Bears lack depth in the secondary so expect both OBJ and Shepard to receive double-digit targets even with RB Rashad Jennings back in the mix.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
QB – Ben Roethlisberger
Elite Option – Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell

The Steelers are one of only a few teams you can feel confident in running a three-headed QB/WR/RB stack. They will definitely be the chalk this week in an elite matchup vs. the Browns who rank 32nd in Defense vs. the Pass giving up 275 yards per game. I think you embrace the chalk this week and differentiate your lineups in other areas. It’s going to be tough to get all three in your lineup which puts the emphasis on finding the right value plays. It’s a scenario where I would build five or more lineups all with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell and interchange the rest of the lineup. The volume will surely be there as the Browns not only allow opponents 67+ plays per game but the Steelers rely on the passing game for 76% of their yards and 78% of their touchdowns. It makes sense when you have Big Ben throwing to Brown, who sits behind only Mike Evans in targets per week (11.6) for WR’s, and Bell who leads all RB’s in targets (9.3) this season. The only concern in this game is the forecast for 25+ mph winds in Cleveland. Monitor the weather leading up to the game and make your best call. I will be updating the weather on Twitter (@jager_bombs9) if you want to check in before lineup lock.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions
QB – Blake Bortles
Elite Option – Allen Robinson

If you are looking to go contrarian this week and take on a little risk consider the garbage-time king Blake Bortles. It comes as no surprise he is projected for 43+ pass attempts as he has exceeded those totals in each of his last four games. He has only topped 300 yards passing once in that span but has thrown multiple touchdowns in three of those four games. He has an elite WR to count on in Allen Robinson who is coming off his first 100 yard game of the season last week against the Texans tough pass defense. Things will get much easier this week in a matchup vs. the Lions who rank 31st in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool. Game flow should also be in the Jags favor as the Lions open as 6.5 point home favorites. I smell the garbage already.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Miami Dolphins & Jay Ajayi

Week 11 marks a great week to jump on board the Dolphins defense. They have recorded eight interceptions and 12 sacks over their last four games and now get a golden matchup against first overall pick Jared Goff making his NFL regular season debut. Is he ready? That has been the question all season as we have had to witness Case Keenum continually underperform behind center. He was touted by draft experts as having NFL-caliber tools but took longer than expected to pick up the offense which is a change from what he ran at Cal. Look for the Dolphins to put on the pressure from the opening whistle which gives us upside of multiple sacks and turnovers.

The running game for the Dolphins appears to be in a tough spot as the Rams rank 9th in Defense vs. the Run. They will be tested this week as the Dolphins, on the back of Jay Ajayi, rank third in the league in rushing offense when looking at DVOA rankings on Football Outsiders. Ajayi somewhat disappointed last week with just 79 yards rushing after totals of 111, 214 and 204 the three previous weeks. Not that those monster weeks are sustainable. From a yards per game perspective, the Rams are giving up over 100 yards rushing (17th) so another 100 yard game for Ajayi is definitely in the cards. Chances are he will also be extremely low owned, perfect for large field GPP’s.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Welcome to our early week article where we will be focused on recapping the prior week, previewing the Thursday Night game and going over some key defenses to target when looking at the Def vs. Position filter on the Player Lab Tool.

What We Learned

It was an up and down week for me batting around .500 with last week’s recommendations. It all started with the idea of targeting the Saints passing defense. It started out right on track as Trevor Siemian drove the Broncos offense down the field to score a touchdown on the opening drive. Things went downhill from there as he couldn’t get the downfield game going and relied too heavily on the dink and dunk which lead to completing just 25 of 40 pass attempts for 258 yards. He did throw two touchdowns but also threw two interceptions. Demaryius Thomas lead the way as the top receiver catching eight of 11 balls for 87 yards and a touchdown. It was Thomas’ fifth straight week with double-digit targets. I will continue to target the Saints in the passing game; I will just pick and choose my quarterback a little more wisely when doing so.

The ultimate chalk call of the week ended up paying off at the end of the day but it wasn’t in the most conventional of ways. Things didn’t look promising for David Johnson early as the 49ers looked like a team that is completely embarrassed about giving up over 190 rushing yards a game and determined to make good. While Johnson was held to just 55 yards on 19 carries he did score on the ground and added five receptions on seven targets for another 46 yards and a touchdown. What did we learn here? Even if teams strategize on shutting down DJ in the run game he has proven over and over that he can hurt you in so many other ways.

Looking at the Friday stacks article it was yet another take the good with the bad situation. The contrarian stack was a huge letdown as Jay Cutler stunk up the field completing just 16 of 30 for 182 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The only positive I take from this is the low exposure I had to the Bears offense, as contrarian as it actually felt entering those lineups on Sunday morning.

The other letdown was the much-anticipated matchup between the Eagles and Falcons. I underestimated the Eagles defense at home thinking the Falcons would roll forcing a ton of passes from Carson Wentz. The game was 7-6 at half! This is where I shut the game off until Tuesday morning game film. Wentz wasn’t bad at all completing 25 of his 36 passes (69%) but didn’t throw a touchdown as Ryan Mathews game controlled the day. Yep, Ryan Mathews who was supposed to be playing second fiddle to Darren Sproles according to Doug Pederson. What a liar! LOL. I still feel positive about the upside of this offense in the right situation and game script. Jordan Matthews and Darren Sproles lead the team in targets with TE Zach Ertz right behind them with seven targets. If you are feeling bold in large field GPP’s this week load up on the Eagles once again in a road matchup in Seattle where they will be bottom feeders in ownership.

Speaking of the Seahawks, they actually brought some joy to my Sunday after I had witnessed my team (Vikings) lose once again and sent most of my lineups up in flames. The afternoon was a different story as I had plenty of exposure to Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin who exploded for three touchdowns. Wilson ended up with 348 yards passing on 25 completions. Jimmy Graham saw his lowest target share (4) since Week 2 of the season and was a product of Baldwin having the hot, hot hand.

Game Balls of the Week

This section will highlight the top three fantasy performers from the previous week at each position.

QB

Aaron Rodgers – 371 Passing Yards, 2 TD (32.54 DK Pts)
Game flow worked out perfectly this week as the Titans took the lead early and never gave it up. Rodgers was forced to pass a ton (51 attempts).

Ben Roethlisberger – 408 Yards, 3 TD (31.42 DK Pts)
Big Ben went off on the Cowboys in one of the best games of the season. He completed 37 of 46 pass attempts(80%) for 408 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort. How amazing has Ben been this year? That was his 3rd best fantasy output of the 2016 season.

Marcus Mariota – 295 Yards, 4 TD (28.6 DK Pts)
He continues to prove he is an elite fantasy QB on a run heavy team. He only attempted 26 passes on Sunday but completed 19 of them for almost 300 yards and four touchdowns. He is very mobile in the pocket and while he didn’t this week, can kill you on the ground if you play man to man. He is also doing this without an elite WR1.

RB

Ezekiel Elliott – 114 Yards, 2 TD + 95 Yards Receiving, 1 TD (43.9 DK Pts)
WOW! He tallied his fifth 100+ yard rushing game of the season to top 1000 yards total through just nine games this season. He also added two catches on Sunday, one that went for 83 yards and a touchdown.

Le’Veon Bell – 57 Yards, 1 TD + 77 Yards Receiving, 1 TD (34.4 DK Pts)
Bell struggled to get it going on the ground with just 57 yards but did score a touchdown. He really paid off his value through the air catching nine of his ten targets for 77 yards with a touchdown.

Ryan Mathews – 109 Yards, 2 TD + 30 Yards Receiving (32.9 DK Pts)
It pains me to write this as I was on the Eagles passing game once again. Doug Pederson told everyone Darren Sproles was the go-to guy. Don’t believe anything you hear. Mathews looked confident with his biggest workload (19 carries) since Week 1.

WR

Antonio Brown – 154 Yards, 1 TD (37.4 DK Pts)
Brown caught 14 of his 18 targets for another monster game and endzone celebration. That was the second time this season he has received that many targets in a game and was his fourth 100+ yard effort.

Stefon Diggs – 164 Yards (32.4 DK Pts)
He didn’t score a touchdown but caught 13 balls (two weeks in a row) for 164 yards as he continually got open for Sam Bradford. He is about the only Viking to trust for fantasy right now as he has recorded 13+ targets in three straight games.

Jordy Nelson – 126 Yards, 1 TD (33.6 DK Pts)
He certainly benefited from Rodgers having to throw the ball 51 times and seen 18 targets himself, catching 12 of them. That is now three straight games for Nelson with 94+ yards and a touchdown.

TE

Delanie Walker – 124 Yards, 1 TD (30.4 DK Pts)
Walker exploded for his best game of the season catching nine of his 11 targets and his first 100+ yard game in 2016. He continues to lead the team in targets (62).

Cameron Brate – 84 Yards, 1 TD (21.4 DK Pts)
He caught all seven of his targets from Jameis Winston for a season-high yardage. He has now scored in three straight weeks and continues to be under priced.

Martellus Bennett – 102 Yards (20.2 DK Pts)
He didn’t score on Sunday but broke 100 yards for the third time this season. With Rob Gronkowski dealing with a chest injury there is a chance he once again plays a big role.

Defense vs. Position Rankings

Target the 49ers in the Run Game
This week’s Matchup – New England Patriots

This almost blew up in my face last week with the ultimate chalk call of David Johnson vs. the 49ers awful run defense. They appeared to put a lot of emphasis on shutting down the run and forcing the Cards to beat them through the air. They happily accepted.

This week the 49ers welcome the powerhouse from New England that will have to be game planned completely different from the Cards. The #1 goal should be to shut down Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady which could leave a lot of running room for red hot LeGarrette Blount. Against a tough Seahawks defense he compiled 69 rushing yards and three scores. The Patriots continue to give him the ball around the goal line creating plenty of opportunities for cheap fantasy points.

Target the Browns
This week’s Matchup – Pittsburgh Steelers

No surprise here as the Browns are the worst team in the league. Behind the 49ers they allow the most rushing yards per game (143.7) and the 6th most passing yards per game(275.4). Looking at the Player Lab Tool that equates to 32nd in Defense vs. the Pass and 29th in Defense vs. the Run. No matter which way you slice it appears the Steelers offense will be in for a big week. I could see the merit in rostering the three head stacking monster of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown.

Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints (4-5) vs. Carolina Panthers (3-6)

Offensive Rankings (Yards Per Game)
NO – 322.7 Passing Yards per Game(1st), 105 Rushing Yards per Game(16th)
CAR – 252.8 Passing Yards per Game(15th), 113.9 Rushing Yards per Game(11th)

Defensive Rankings (Player Lab Tool)
NO – 30th in Defense vs. the Pass, 26th in Defense vs. the Run
CAR – 22nd in Defense vs. the Pass, 5th in Defense vs. the Run

This week was an excellent week to get in on a Monday – Thursday slate contest. I made five lineups and mixed and matched AJ Green and Odell Beckham Jr. and even had two lineups with both and Sterling Shepard who also scored.

Ok, enough about the Monday nighter. Let’s get into Thursday’s game. The game opens as one of the highest totals of the week (52) with a fairly tight spread as the home team is currently a three-point favorite. With the Falcons unable to pull away in the division (6-4) both the Panthers and Saints have a realistic shot at catching them.

From a matchup standpoint I absolutely love both teams in the passing game. I favor Drew Brees in this one as the Saints lead the league in passing yards per game and Brees sits 2nd behind only Matt Ryan with 2,992 yards and is tied with him with 24 touchdown passes. I love Willie Snead this week coming off a two-touchdown effort vs. the Broncos. The Panthers have struggled on the back end, and their weakest CB (according to PFF CB rankings) has been slot corner Leonard Johnson. I would load up on Brandin Cooks who has seen his salary trend down and has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games. I would avoid Mark Ingram this week as the Panthers rank 5th in Defense vs. the Run.

From the Panthers side of things, I am not as excited as they are more expensive and have not produced at the same level. I will have exposure as the matchup is just too hard to pass (pun intended) up. It will be another excellent opportunity for Cam Newton to get on track as he has not thrown for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in three straight weeks. For him to take the next step he will need Kelvin Benjamin to step up. He has not had a 100-yard game since Week 2 and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4. Even the steady Eddie of the offense hasn’t been producing like himself lately. Greg Olsen leads the league in targets (78) by a tight end but hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 5. From a rushing standpoint you can trust Jonathan Stewart this week who gets a much easier task against the Saints 26th ranked pass defense. The last time these two teams met he ran for 85 yards and two scores.

I will be looking for fireworks on Thursday night as the last two times these teams have met there have been exactly 79 total points each game. Lock and load!

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool , and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Seattle Seahawks
QB – Russell Wilson
Elite Options – Jimmy Graham
Value Option – Doug Baldwin
Opposition Correlation Option – Rob Gronkowski

This week we start with Sunday Night Football and the much anticipated Super Bowl 49 rematch between the Patriots and Seahawks. The Patriots open as 7.5 point favorites in one of the slates highest overall totals (49). The Patriots have been unbeatable at home (4-0) while the Seahawks have struggled on the road (1-2-1). While the spread suggests the Patriots should roll over the Seahawks there is more at play here. Pride is at stake after the nature of the defeat the Hawks took in the Super Bowl. I fully expect this to be a boxing match between heavyweights exchanging blows till the final bell or whistle.

The Seahawks offense should once again rely on the legs and arm of Russell Wilson as the run game has been nonexistent. They rank 30th as a team in rushing yards per game (75.4) and in a 31-26 win over the Bills on Monday night no player had more than five rushing attempts. Wilson has been dealing with injuries for most of the season and has seen his rushing totals drop off the table but so has his price. He is trending in the right direction rushing three times last week, one of which resulted in a touchdown. The Patriots have been tough on the tight end from a fantasy perspective but haven’t faced one of Jimmy Graham’s caliber yet. The good news is that the Patriots rank 25th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool putting Graham in a great situation to explode this week. The resurgence has been fun to watch as he has already recorded three 100 yard games and it is getting close that 1/1A status with Rob Gronkowski. Speaking of Gronk, if you are looking for a contrarian approach to tournaments this week consider paying up for both elite tight ends. There is enough value at wide receiver to make it happen and still get David Johnson in your lineup.

Philadelphia Eagles
QB – Carson Wentz
Elite Option – Jordan Matthews
Value Option – Zach Ertz

Looking at the Player Lab Tool this week we see that the Eagles are going to receive a pace upgrade facing the 6-3 Falcons. This is good news for rookie Carson Wentz coming off one of his best games of the year. The completion % wasn’t there as he completed just 27 of 47 but threw for a new career high 364 yards. He didn’t record a touchdown but could have easily had multiple scores throughout the game last week against the Giants. This week he faces a Falcons team that ranks 26th in Defense vs. the Pass and are allowing opponents to run a very high 67.7 plays per game. Pair Wentz with #1 receiving option Jordan Matthews who has been trending up over the last few weeks. In divisional matchups vs. the Cowboys and Giants he has caught 17 balls on 25 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. Facing another high-powered offense it is very likely Wentz out performs his passing attempt projection of 37. This will give Matthews a great shot at making it three straight games with double-digit targets. He is an elite play from a PTS/$ perspective at a price under $7K on both sites. Tight end Zach Ertz has been very inconsistent this season but also appears to be trending up as he received a season-high eight targets last week putting up 97 yards, which was also a season high. His inconsistency has kept his price in the low tier on both sites. Much like the Seahawks, stacking the Eagles opens up a ton of salary that can be used on multiple elite players elsewhere in your lineup.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Chicago Bears
QB – Jay Cutler
Elite Option – Alshon Jeffery
Correlation Opponent Option – Mike Evans

From a contrarian side of things this week I will be focusing my attention on the matchup between the Bucs and Bears. The Over/Under has opened up at 46 with the Bears sitting as one-point road favorites. If the Bucs Mike Evans is cleared from the concussion protocol and is a full go I can easily see the Bucs ending up as the favorites by Sunday while the total could also climb closer to 50. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league when looking at points per game but it’s the defensive side of the ball where we will be focusing our attention. The Bucs have struggled defensively this season, in particular through the air where they rank 24th in Defense vs. the Pass on the Player Lab Tool allowing 281 passing yards per game. This gives a boost to Jay Cutler who made his return last week throwing for 252 yards and a touchdown vs. a tough Vikings defense. Those totals should be closer to his floor this week with multiple touchdowns and 300 yards a real possibility. Look for him to get elite wideout Alshon Jeffery involved early and often. He has seen 32 targets over the past three weeks and will be looking to record his first 100-yard game since week one. I have been big on the correlation between the top two receiving options on opposing teams in my stacks and will highlight this once again here. If the game turns out to be a shootout both Jeffery and Evans should see double-digit targets and fill the fantasy box score.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Arizona Cardinals & David Johnson

This section pretty much wrote itself this week. We will start with the Cardinals defense that is leading the league allowing just 297 total yards per game. They get an elite matchup vs. the 49ers offense that ranks 29th with just 314.5 yards per game. That isn’t all. Holding opponents to minimal yards and points doesn’t always equate to the type of fantasy points needed to win a GPP. Good news! The Cardinals sit tied for fifth with 15 takeaways this season while the 49ers sit in a tie for second with 17 giveaways. Now that sounds like a recipe for a big fantasy day from the Cards defense.

From a running back point of view, there is no other matchup better than facing the 49ers this season. They have been historically bad ranking 32nd in Defense vs. the Run and allowing a phenomenal 193 yards per game. You would take any running back against this defense but it isn’t any running back they will face this week. David Johnson has been elite this season sitting fourth in rushing with 703 yards and leads all running backs in targets (55), receptions (35) and yards (407) through the air. The Cardinals are huge favorites(-13.5) and should control this game from the start leading to another high volume game from Johnson. The only fear is that the Cardinals get too far ahead in which they rest Johnson in the second half.

Thanks for reading this week’s article and stay tuned later in the week for my favorite stacking options for the main slate this weekend. If you have any questions in the meantime be sure to hit us up on Twitter @jager_bombs9 & @lineuplab

Chris Durell

There is a tremendous amount of data available in the Player Lab Tool , and I have been incorporating more and more of it into my models each week to build the optimal lineup stacks. The tool is fully customizable allowing you to filter only the data in that you want and enabling you to set the thresholds for each filter. Once you get players that look good to you per your specifications, you can easily flip it over into the lineup optimizer where you then can create and export up to 50 lineups.

Here is a look at a few of the filters/stats I look at when constructing my tournament stacks:

High Vegas O/U – I always start with this filter most weeks have the threshold set at 47 or higher. It’s pretty obvious as you always want to target players in the highest scoring games. Vegas isn’t always right, meaning you can find low-ownership by going outside the threshold but concentrating on more individual matchups.

Defense vs. Position Ranking – This one is also pretty obvious but is much deeper than just passing/rushing/receiving yards against. It incorporates DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) which is more of a situation and opponent based ranking. It helps us to really break down which are the best teams to target at each position and when I find one team who ranks poorly against almost all positions they are close to a lock stack for me.

Pace – This breaks down the number of plays the opponent allows per game. Finding teams who are projected to score a lot of points vs. teams who are weak against the position. This allows a lot of plays and is an excellent way to maximize the upside of stacking.

Let’s take a look at some of the top stacking options using these filters.
Good Luck everyone!

Green Bay Packers
QB – Aaron Rodgers
Elite Options – Jordy Nelson
Value Option – Davante Adams

Relax! Aaron Rodgers is back ladies and gentlemen. While he didn’t throw 300 yards last week he recorded four touchdowns, to four different receivers, without the services of Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb. As of Thursday night it is still unclear on either of their statuses, and I just don’t see Rodgers throwing three-quarters of his touchdowns to Geronimo Allison, Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis. That means a big game is coming for Jordy Nelson and the pair, that comes at a high cost, makes a terrific combination on Sunday. The Colts rank 30th in Defense vs. the Pass this season and could be without the services of star corner Vontae Davis who is currently in the league’s concussion protocol. If you are looking for value you rely on Devante Adams once again of Montgomery and/or Cobb is out. He has seen 20 targets over the last two weeks, catching 15 for 206 yards and two touchdowns.

New Orleans Saints
QB – Drew Brees
Elite Option – Brandon Cooks
Value Option – Michael Thomas

Looking at the Player Lab Tool this week I tried to narrow down the field with filters you see above. Only Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees showed up. Brees has been astounding once again this season with 2,366 yards passing completing 69.5% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just five interceptions. If you are looking for volume the Saints offense is the place to be as Brees has attempted 35+ passes in every game this season with 42+ in five of those games. A lot of it has to do with a run game that is struggling withMark Ingram but the Saints are pass happy and that isn’t going to change anytime soon. They get an elite matchup this week against the 49ers who rank 27th in Defense vs. the Pass and are one of only two teams playing this week that allow 70+ plays per game to their opponents.

Contrarian Stack of the Week

Miami Dolphins
QB – Ryan Tannehill
Elite Option – Jarvis Landry

The Miami Dolphins once again fall into the contrarian portion of the article as the game is projected for just 44 total points. There is still a lot to like about the Dolphins this week. They went into their bye week winning two straight against the Steelers and Bills outscoring them 58-40. The contrarian part of the stack is that those wins were on the back of an astonishing two-game rushing attack from Jay Ajayi who became just the fourth player ever to record back to back 200+ rushing games. Ryan Tannehill struggled big time in those two games throwing for just 456 yards combined with just one touchdown. What is to like this week? First of all, I don’t think there is any way Ajayi will come anywhere near his previous two weeks totals as the matchup is against an extremely tough Jets team that ranks 3rd in Defense vs. the Rush. This explains the sky high passing attempt projection (39) for Tannehill and combine that with the fact the Jets rank 29th vs. the pass. Add it all up and you could get low-ownership with tremendous opportunity for 300+ pass yards and multiple touchdowns and discounted prices.

Defense/Running Back Stack of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs & Charcandrick West

The 5-2 Chiefs come into this week’s home matchup vs. the 2-5 Jaguars on a hot streak from a fantasy perspective. They have scored double-digit points in three straight in four of their last five games and lead the league with 11 interceptions on the season. They now face a team in the Jags who rank 21st in the league with a -8 turnover differential and 26th ranked offense on a yards per game basis. Look for another double-digit effort in Week 9.

From a running back standpoint you aren’t getting a stud this week but rather a top value play due to injuries. Jamaal Charles was placed on IR last week and Spencer Ware left last game and did not return with a concussion. Definitely monitor the status of Ware going into the weekend but if he does not play, West becomes a near must play on both sites vs. a Jags team that ranks 27th in Defense vs. the Pass.