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Cesar Becerra

NFL Thanksgiving Daily Fantasy Football 3-Game Slate 11/23/17

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

NFL Thanksgiving Daily Fantasy Football 3-Game Slate 11/23/17

The classic Thanksgiving football tradition continues this season in week 12 of the NFL season. That means an extra slate for both Draftkings and Fanduel for degenerates such as myself and the several others reading this article. The slate features three games all that carry their fair share of fantasy goodness. Minnesota travels to Detroit in a pivotal divisional matchup. The Chargers face off against a Cowboys team both fighting for their playoff lives. The Giants look to shock the football world again by forcing another upset against their divisional foe Redskins. I’ll breakdown each game and identify the few plays that I will be targeting from each game.

 

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Minnesota Vikings (23.75) at Detroit Lions (20.75) o/u – 44.5

It’s worth noting that the Lions opened up as 1-point favorites at home against the Vikings who are coming off of a huge win against the LA Rams. THat line has since shifted in favor of the Vikings who are now 3-point road favorites after receiving 60% of the public bet.

Minnesota Vikings 

The Vikings offense leaves a lot to be desired without the presence of Dalvin Cook and Sam Bradford. Nonetheless they’re 8-2 and leading the NFC north by 2 games. Their offensive production is largely carried by Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph. With those playmakers on his side, it doesn’t take much from Case Keenum to do other than force the ball to the talented trio. Keenum is a cheap way to get exposure to these offensive playmakers, while differentiating your lineup construction. Keenum is the second lowest priced QB on (Draftkings at $5,300 and Fanduel $7,500). His offensive weapons and favorable team total make him a superior play at the bottom of the barrel at the QB position over Eli Manning. The Lions rank 18th in aFPA to opposing QB so Keenum has a relatively strong chance of going 3x on Draftkings where he would only need about 17 points to reach value.

Adam Thielen (DK $7,600, FD $8,300) and Stefon Diggs (DK $6,300, FD $7,500) are perhaps the most talented receivers on this slate. Thielen has out produced Diggs since his return from injury and Thielen now has averaged the most targets per game in the NFL since week 6. The matchup also favors Thielen because he may be able to avoid having to face Darius Slay. Thielen runs the majority of his snaps from the slot, meaning he could avoid Slay on Thursday morning. Diggs always has the upside to explode for a 200-yard 2 TD game, but he will have his work cut out for him going up against Slay.

Kyle Rudolph (DK $4,100, FD $5,800) has at least seven targets and five receptions the last six games. The Lions are among the worst in aFPA to TE and Rudolph is receiving over 35% of red zone targets for the Vikings. Rudolph is a great cash and gpp play if you want to go heavy on the Vikings.

I’ll be staying away from the running backs on the Vikings. Latavius Murray (DK $4,900, FD $6,500) and Jerick McKinnon (DK $5,200, FD 6,200) split the carries almost 50-50 and don’t have much upside. Murray has been getting the bulk of the work but simply hasn’t been productive with it. While McKinnon has been involved in the passing game, but has yet to separate himself as the main back. Murray would be the better bet to score a TD on the slate, but McKinnon is the better option if you think this game could shootout or the Vikings would be trailing.

Detroit Lions 

Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in his  last five games. He’s exceeded his salary point expectation in each of those games and has shown that he is worth the price the Lions gave up this offseason. The issue is he’s going up against a stingy Vikings defense that is 11th in aFPA. Stafford is always a threat to have a big game because of the amount of volume he see (30+ attempts in 7 of his last 8 games).

The Lions receivers Golden Tate (DK $6,200, FD $7,300) and Marvin Jones (DK $5,700, FD $7,000) are also in a difficult spot against the 15th Vikings who are 15th in aFPA. They rank in the middle of the pack because of their dominant performances by Xavier Rhodes and lackluster performances by Terence Newman. In their first meeting back in week 4, Rhodes shadowed Marvin Jones practically all game and held him to only two catches. That figures to be the case this week which leads to more targets for Tate against Newman. Tate is a much better play on Draftkings with the PPR format.

Similar to the Vikings running back situation, I won’t be having much exposure to the Lions running backs. They have two very cheap running back options in Ameer Abdullah (DK $3,900, FD $ )  and Theo Riddick (DK $3,600, FD $5,600) but have a difficult matchup against the Vikings who rank number 2 in aFPA to running backs. Abdullah may get the more volume in the game but Riddick gets the majority of targets out of the backfield. Abdullah can be in consideration on Fanduel.

Los Angeles Charger (25) at Dallas Cowboys (22.5) over/under (47.5)

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are coming off of a dominant performance against a Bills team that started a rookie quarterback and threw 5 interceptions. When you factor that in with a Cowboys offense that has been struggling, I expect their defense to be somewhat popular.

The offense last week was led by Keenan Allen (DK $7,300, FD $8,000) who had a monster game with 12 catches and 159 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest reason for his increase in production was the increase of routes run out of the slot. The Cowboys have struggled to cover receivers in general this season (25th aFPA) and have struggled with short catches. If the game plan stays to what it was last week, Allen should have a big game again. Because of Dallas’ ranking against receivers it’s fair to consider both Tyrell WIlliams (DK $3,400, FD $5,100) and Mike Williams (DK $3,100, FD $4,700) as punt plays. Mike is coming off of a season-high snap rate (55%) and had 8 targets last week, while Tyrell only received one target. We’ve seen Tyrell explode for 100-yard games already once this season so he’s a viable tournament option at this price.

Melvin Gordon (DK $7,600, FD $7,800) will be the unavoidable chalk of the week. He’s one of two running backs that figures to get the majority of the team’s carries and has the highest ceiling out of all the backs on the slate. A nice way to differentiate your lineup would be pairing him with Austin Ekeler (DK $4,200, FD $5,800) who has seen his role continue to increase the past two weeks. Ekeler has seen seven targets and 16 carries in the last two weeks and has turned that into over 40 DK points. People would likely fade the pairing both running backs on the same team, but with Sean Lee out for the Cowboys, that could open up the Chargers running game for both backs.

Dallas Cowboys  

The Cowboys offense has really struggled without Ezekiel Elliott and LT Tyron Smith. Fortunately they should be getting Smith back in this game which will help Dak Prescotts (DK $6,700, $8,900). Dak has failed to meet salary expectations the last two games and is coming off of a three interception game on national TV. Priced between Cousins and Stafford, he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the three and still provides a good deal of rushing upside. Dak has proven to be the Cowboys new goal line back so if the Cowboys are within the 5 yard line, that could lead to a rushing TD for Dak. Dak also has the luxury of playing in the game with the slates highest over/under. Dak is my favorite pivot off Cousins on this slate.

The Cowboy receivers don’t give a lot to be excited about but Dez Bryant (DK $6,400, FD $7,400) does provide some upside given his price range. He’s the fourth highest price receiver and has the largest percent of the team’s target share. The problem is that Bryant is going up against two pretty solid corners in Trevor Williams and Casey Hayward. The Cowboys wide receivers have tough matchups against the Chargers, especially if the Chargers pass rush can get to Dak. The recipe for success for the Cowboys might be to use Dak’s rushing ability and control the game with their running game. Bryant is viable for cash given the amount of targets he gets, but it’s difficult to see a breakout game with the matchup he has.

Speaking of the Cowboys rushing game, since Elliott’s suspension the run game hasn’t been very effective. Alfred Morris (DK $4,800, FD $6,100) and Rod Smith (DK $3,400, FD $5,300) will get the majority of the workload for Dallas. Morris has got 28 carries over the last two games, but Smith has gotten the majority of targets. The Chargers allow the third most fantasy points to opposing backfield so if the workload were to lean on one back they could have a big day. Depending on the game flow you expect, Morris could see upwards of 25 carries and Smith could get around 8-10 targets. The Cowboys have fell behind early the last two games and that has led to Smith getting over 54% of the snaps. They are 2.5 point underdogs so that very well could be the scenario this go around.

New York Giants (18.75)  at Washington Redskins (26.25) over/under 45

New York Giants

The Giants have the slate lowest implied team total at less than 20 points. Last week they were able to pull off the upset against the Chiefs in an overtime win, but still failed to score a touchdown. This week they find themselves in a similar situation. Their biggest threat in Sterling Shepard has missed practice all week and is a good bet to be inactive for this game. This could funnel the production to Evan Engram (DK $6,100, FD $7,600). Engram leads the team with 44 targets and four touchdowns since Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall went down for the season.  That production should continue with Shepard out. Engram is the only play worth considering for this slate.

Washington Redskins

The team with the highest implied total (26.25) and the most stable offensive production.

Kirk Cousins (DK $7,100, FD $8,800)  is the highest priced QB on the slate and will be the highest owner QB on the slate. He has the highest implied total and is playing at home, which bodes well for his owners. But there is cause for caution with Cousin missing two offensive linemen (Shawn Lauvao and Spencer Long) and also pass-catching running back Chris Thompson.

The benefit of rostering Cousins is that you can predict where his production will correlate. Jamison Crowder (DK $5,400, FD $6,300) and Josh Doctson (DK $4,700, FD $6,600) are the primary recipients of Cousins targets. Crowder is averaging over 9 targets per game in the last four and Doctson has emerged as the team’s deep threat after Terrelle Pryor has seen a limited role. Crowder is a viable cash game option given the amount of targets he receives. While Doctson is the darkhorse with the higher ceiling.

Samaje Perine (DK $5,000, FD $7,600) is the only running back outside of Melvin Gordon that is a lock to touch the ball more than 20 times. Perine is a home favorite and received over 70% of the carries last week. With Thompson out for the season, this is Perine’s backfield to control. Perine should get the bulk of the carries for the Redskins and will get a lot of opportunities if the Redskins can grab a lead early. The Giants rank 26th in aFPA to running backs.

Cash:

QB: Cousins, Prescott, Keenum

RB: Gordon, Perine, Murray, Morris

WR: Thielen, Bryant, Crowder, Tate

TE: Davis/Reed, Rudolph, Engram

DST: Redskins, Cowboys

GPP:

QB: Stafford

RB: Ekeler, McKinnon

WR: Doctson, Ty. Williams

TE: Henry

DST: Lions, Chargers

Fades:

QB: Rivers, Manning

RB: Abdullah, Riddick, Darkwa

WR: Diggs, Beasley, M. Jones, Lewis

TE: Ebron, Gates

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 11

Week 11 means we’ve made it to the end of the bye weeks! Only four teams are on bye this week, and they are the 49ers, Jets, Colts, and the Panthers. We typically three of those four defenses for Quarterbacks but this week we have a fair amount of options on the Draftkings main slate. A big note for this slate is that the Patriots and Raiders game will be played in Mexico City where the stadium sits over 7,000 feet above sea level. There could be a chance that players get tired as the game progresses.

The Draftkings main slate is without a few really good games this week, which means the PrimeTime slate should be a lot of fun this week. The Sunday Night Football game features the 1st seed Eagles at Dallas in a division rivalry, while the Monday Night game has the Falcons going to Seattle.

 

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Get our NFL Seasonal package for 50% off for a LIMITED TIME using code “NLA5017”

 

Vegas:

Since Vegas has become such a huge part of the DFS community and is where most DFS players start their research, I decided to write up a portion outlining the big Vegas numbers. All Vegas totals will be taken from Fantasy Labs Vegas page on Wednesday.

This week there are currently two games with a game total over 50 with the Patriots and the Raiders sitting at 53.5 and the Redskins at the Saints sitting at 51. These two games are above the rest of the pack with three games sitting with a total over 44. The Bills at Chargers (44), Chiefs at Giants (45), and the Rams at Vikings (45.5).

There are three games that Vegas has as over a touchdown favorite. The Chiefs led the way with as 10 ½ point favorite over the Giants, The Saints and Jags are tied for second on the main slate with a 7.5 point edge over the Redskins and the Browns, respectively. And the Patriots are 7 point favorites against the Raiders. There are four teams with implied team totals over 24 points. The Chargers (24), Vikings (24), Chiefs (27.75), Saints (29.25), and the Patriots (30.25).

I encourage you to check out the Fantasy Labs page on Sunday morning to see if there are any drastic changes to these game totals. Of course, Lineup Labs subs have access to this information in the player pool. Let’s dive into the slate.

Quarterbacks:

Alex Smith

This is a pretty good week for Quarterbacks. There are plenty of good options at the high priced tier, and a few good value plays. Starting with Drew Brees.

Drew Brees (DK $ 6,800) – Brees is the 2nd highest priced quarterback on the DK main slate. Brees is in an ideal spot as a home favorite with a high team total (29.25) and a high total (51). Brees has historically done well at home and Washington ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA to quarterbacks this season. Brees will likely be one of the most popular quarterbacks on the slate with his price reaching a season-low 6.8K. The concern here is that the Saints are not the same Saints team that we could on to throw the ball 40-50 times per game. The Saints are passing the ball only 52% of the time this season compared to 64% of the time last season. Brees has not attempted over 30 passes since week 7 against the Packers. Brees is always a threat to have a huge game at home. He will be popular so fade him at your own risk.

Alex Smith (DK $6,700) – If you are fading Brees, don’t overlook Alex Smith. Smith is about the same price as Brees and has similar Vegas numbers. Chiefs are big favorites (10.5), have a high total (27.75), and are facing a putrid Giants defense that just allowed CJ Bethard to score 26 DK points against them. The Giants are 30th in the league in aFPA to quarterbacks this season and have gotten burned by Jared Goff, Russell Wilson (on the road), Trevor Siemian, Philip Rivers, and Jameis Winston the past six weeks. This Giants team is #bad, and the Chiefs will have no problem with them coming off of a bye (Andy Reid is 16-2 lifetime coming off of a bye). I’d lean more on Smith than Brees because the Chiefs have a 57% rate and Smith provides some rushing upside. Smith is my favorite QB this week.

Blaine Gabbert (DK $4,900) *expected to start* – I know, you probably threw up in your mouth and are skipping over this section. But Gabbert is getting his first start of the season against the Texans. The Texans rank 29th in aFPA allowed and have been burned for more than 20 points in four of the past five weeks by quarterbacks. Gabbert looked okay this past preseason, completing 61% of his passes and a QBR of 85.9. Bottomline is you’re probably not going to roster Gabbert here, but he’s super cheap and is going up against a bad Texans’ defense and has plenty of weapons to make plays for him.

Cash:

Smith, Brees, Brady, Carr

GPP:

(Above) Cousins, Rivers (if active), Cutler, Gabbert

 

Running back:

Alvin Kamara

There isn’t a clear standout running back on this slate, so there isn’t an incredibly priced up player like we saw last week at $9,800. This week Gurley (8.4K) is the highest priced back and Fournette (8.2K), Ingram (8.1K), and Hunt (8K) all round out the $8,000 range.

Leonard Fournette (DK $8,200) – Fournette burned me last week in his first game back. He was in an ideal spot and threw up a complete dud in my lineups. I generally don’t like playing running backs against the Browns, but this is a situation where I’m watching the weather very closely. Winds are expected to reach upwards of 20MPH on Sunday in Cleveland, and the Jags already hate putting the ball in Blake Bortles’ hand. The Jags run a league-high 51% of the time and are 7 ½ points favorites. If the weather holds up as it looks right now, this could be a sluggish game that Fournette ends up touching the ball around 30 times.

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,000) – I think Hunt will be the most popular top priced running back of the four mentioned above. The Giants rank 27th in aFPA for running backs and Kareem Hunt is a huge favorite with one of the highest implied team total. He’s not a bad play by any means, I just really like getting my exposure to this Chiefs offense through the passing attack. Also, I’ve seen Hunt turn into a 2-down back and be replaced by Charcandrick West more than I’m comfortable. In the Chiefs, las game Hunt saw his snap count dip from 67% to 54%. He still got 5 targets in the game, but only touched the ball 13 times. I understand that Hunt is in a good spot, I just like the passing attack more for KC. This could be a week that I venture away from the top priced running backs.

Alvin Kamara (DK $7,500) – Kamara just might be my favorite running back this week. He’s $600 cheaper than Mark Ingram and gives me exposure to both the Saints passing and rushing attacks. The past two weeks Kamara is only playing in 39% of the snaps but is receiving 92% of the targets out of the backfield. He’s combined for 40% of the running back targets with 33 compared to Ingram’s 38. Although the snaps are quite even, Brees looks to Kamara often, and on a PPR format like DK, Kamara only needs about 5 catches for 50 yards to put him on pace to reach value.

Rex Burkhead ($3,600), Dion Lewis ($4,200), James White ($4,700) – The trio of Patriots running backs are going to be somewhat popular. Burkhead might carry the highest ownership with his 3.6K price tag. But to try to figure out which running back, Bill Belichick will use, is anyone’s guess. Last week Burkhead led the three backs in snaps with 51% (Lewis 30%, White 16%, Bolden 3%). Lewis led the team in rushing attempts with 50% (Burkhead 36%, White 7%, Bolden 7%). Burkhead was tied with White in targets with 3 targets apiece (Lewis had 0). At the end of all this the touches brokedown this way – Lewis 14 touches, Burkhead 13, White 5, and Bolden 2. Like I said, anyone’s guess who will emerge here. I’d imagine Burkhead would be the best player because of his ability to catch and rush the ball, along with his low price. But it’s very tough.

Cash:

T. Gurley, L. Fournette, K. Hunt, M.Ingram, A. Kamara, M. Gordon, R. Burkhead

GPP:

(All Above), C. Thompson, Pats RBs, K. Drake

Wide Receivers:

Sterling Shepard

Michael Thomas (DK $ 7,400) – Thomas is the second highest price wide receiver and will be popular. He’s going to be the conventional stack with Brees. Thomas is 7th in the league with 83 targets, averaging over 9 targets per game. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 4 against so we can expect some positive regression for him. The one concern some people may have in rostering him could be ill-advised. People might be concerned that Josh Norman could shadow him, but that is not expected to be the case here. Josh Norman does not shadow receivers and has played all, but a handful of plays on the left side of the defense.75% of Thomas’ snaps are on the right side of the formation so he should avoid Norman for most of the game.

Sterling Shepard (DK $6,300) – Another popular play here with Shepard coming off of a 13 target game and 28 DK points. Shepard has received 22 targets in his last two games and had turned that into some good production (16 catches, 212 yards, 40.2 DK points). The Giants are likely going to be trailing, which will force Eli to throw the ball upwards of 30 times, and that means Shephard is likely to see 10+ targets again. The Chiefs are 31st aFPA to wide receivers so he should be a lock for cash games. His price continues to rise with his production as of late, but you’re looking at a receiver with a floor of 5 catches and 70 yards.

Tyreek Hill (DK $7,100) – This middle tier price range will be popular this week, especially without a clear stud to pay up for. Hill is typically more of a tournament play than a cash game play, but the matchup lines up perfectly for him this week. The Giants are one of the worst teams in the league at giving up the deep ball, and that fits perfectly into Hill’s game. Hill doesn’t have an exceptionally high floor, but his ceiling is the perfect play for tournaments.

Michael Crabtree (DK $6,600) & Amari Cooper ($6,000) – Going a little cheaper from the guys mentioned above, you can’t go wrong with either of the top two receivers for the Raiders. The Raiders are a touchdown underdog in the game with the highest total between two offenses that have the firepower to put up points. We’ve seen Derrick Carr eclipse more than 30 attempts in each of his last four games, including two game of over 49. It’s easy to see the Raiders airing the ball out to either keep up with the Pats or maintain a lead. If Carr is likely to throw 45+ times, these two could be in store for 10+ targets each against a Patriots defense that is much improved but still ranks 29th aFPA to wide receivers.

Value

Jeremy Maclin (DK $4,500) – Maclin caught 8 of his 9 targets last week for 98 yards against the Titans. This week he faces the Packers who rank 28th in aFPA to wide receivers this season.

Bruce Ellington (DK $3,000) – Ellington stepped in for an injured Will Fuller and caught 4 of his 8 targets for 41 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Ellington is going to face the 2nd corner with Patrick Peterson likely to follow DeAndre Hopkins all over the field.

Cash:

M. Thomas, S. Shepard, T. Hill, A. Cooper, J. Maclin, B. Cooks

GPP:

(All of the Above) D. Hopkins (too cheap), M. Wallace, M. Crabtree, E. Sanders, K. Allen, M. Evans, A. Thielen.

Tight End:

Travis Kelce

The top-priced tight ends are all in great spots (Kelce, Gronk, Engram). If you can fit one into your lineup, they are the clear top plays of the slate.

Tyler Kroft (DK $2,900) – A nice salary put here. Kroft has done a great job exceeding value since Tyler Eifert went down for the season. This week we get him at a discount after a poor performance in week 10. He faces the Broncos who have a tight end funnel pass defense and rank 30th in aFPA against tight ends. Kroft has scored at least 9 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.

Martellus Bennett (DK $2,800) – Bennett could be a sneaky pivot off of Gronk. In only a short period time with the Pats, Bennett caught all 3 of his targets for 38 yards last week. You don’t need much at 2.8K, a touchdown and 20 yards will give you a little more than 3X

Cash:

T. Kelce, R. Gronkowski, E. Engram, V. Davis (if Reed is out), T. Kroft

GPP:

(All of Above) J. Cook, B. Watson, J. Gresham, C. Brate

Defense:

Los Angeles Chargers

LA Chargers (DK $3,000) –  The Chargers are facing rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman in his first career start. The Chargers have a great defensive line and should be able to bring pressure on Peterman, forcing sacks and possibly interceptions.

Cash:

JAX, LAC, HOU, ARI, DEN,

GPP:

BAL, KC, NO, CIN






Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Draftkings NFL & Cash GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

Week 10 of the NFL features four teams on bye, and three of the four are teams that we generally like to use players from their offense. The Ravens, Chiefs, Raiders, and Eagles are on bye. Teams that are also not on the Draftkings main slate are the Seahawks, Cardinals, Patriots, Broncos, Dolphins, and Panthers. The slate features three teams that are more than 10 point favorites in the Lions (-13), Rams (-11.5), and the Steelers (-10.5).

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Get our NFL Seasonal package for 50% off for a LIMITED TIME using code “NLA5017”

Quarterbacks:

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

There are four teams implied to score more than 25 points this week, which is generally the mark we like to target for QBs. The Rams lead the league in scoring and lead the slate with a 28.5 implied total. The Lions are second with a similar projection at 28.25. The Steelers and Falcons are both implied to score about 27 points. These QBs should lead the pack in ownership this week a the QB position.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,800) – Stafford is the third highest priced QB on the main slate and faces the Browns who allowed the league’s worst aFPA (Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed) (20.4) to quarterbacks, per 4for4. Stafford is coming off of a 25 point performance against a bad Packers secondary. Stafford has thrown for over 300 yards in his last three games and has reached value in each of those starts. Stafford is still relatively priced down due to the fact he played on Monday night and is at $6,800. The Lions are implied to score the second highest points on the slate, and because of their running back committee, Stafford typically accounts for all the team’s points. Stafford is a safe cash play and is also viable in GPP’s.

Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,600) – For $200 less, you can end up with Big Ben who is in a great spot this week. He goes up against a Colts defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks when their team was implied to score more than 24 points. The Colts rank 25th in the league in aFPA, per 4for4 and Roethlisberger, is coming off of a bye. My concern here with Ben as a cash play is that the Steelers are on the road. Ben historically struggles on the road and quite frankly hasn’t been good this season for DFS. Ben has only hit value once this season but comes in with the most upside of all the quarterbacks. I’d use Ben as a GPP play only and find the extra $200 to get up to Stafford.

Value Play

Marcus Mariota (DK, $5,800) – An exciting value play is Marcus Mariota. I always like playing Mariota for his rushing upside, and now that he has his Chris Davis back he has more weapons at his disposal. Mariota goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks in the middle of the pack in aFPA. He’s failed to meet value five of his last six games, but the bright side is that you get him at a $600 discount. At $5,800 he only needs 17 points to hit value, and we’ve seen Mariota hit that earlier this season with Davis on the field. Mariota is a sneaky value GPP play that can help you fit in stud running backs.

Cash game plays:

M. Stafford, D. Prescott, T. Taylor, M. Ryan

Gpp plays:

(all of the above) B. Roethlisberger, M. Mariota, E. Manning

Running Backs:

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

This is a FANTASTIC week to pay up for running backs! Le’Veon Bell is the top-priced back at $9,800 on the road. Elliott and Gurley follow with an $8,800 and $8,700 price tag, respectfully. And then we have a slight drop off in price with Fournette ($8,400) and McCoy ($8,300). If I’m ranking these, I’d go Elliott, Gurley, Bell, McCoy, Fournette.

Ezekiel Elliott (DK $8,800) – Elliott again avoided suspension for yet another week. While that’s great for DFS, it’s a huge headache for season long. Fortunately, this write up is for DFS and Zeke is in another great spot. Zeke failed to reach value last week against the Chiefs, but outside of last week, he’s been a monster the two weeks before that. Zeke has 88 touches the past three weeks and has six touchdowns to show for the volume. This week he’s going up against the Falcons who allow the 6th most points to opposing running backs in PPR formats. They just let Christian McCaffrey score 20.4 PPR. That’s why I like Elliott; the Falcons are among the worst defenses in the league to give up points to pass-catching running backs. However, for Elliott, there is a concern being that he only has five targets and two catches in the last three games. I like Elliott more for GPP’s, but Gurley is by far the safer cash game play. I just have a feeling that the game flow could benefit Zeke getting around 35 touches.

Todd Gurley (DK $8,700) – If you like to go for trends then, Gurley is the obvious play over Zeke. Gurley checks all the boxes you’d want for a running back. He’s at home, favored by 11.5 points, and his team is implied to score the most points on the slate. Gurley has seen 12 targets out of the backfield and has caught seven passes for 97 yards. If there’s any concern here is that Gurley’s matchup is tough on paper. The Texans have allowed the least PPR fantasy points to running backs this season (15.7). The Texans rank second behind the Vikings in allowing opposing running backs to reach value with a -5.7 +/- rating per Fantasy Labs. The matchup is tough, but the Rams could get up early and feed Gurley so I can see him getting 25-30 targets.

Jordan Howard (DK $6,100) – Jordan Howard has received a lot of volume in the last four weeks. Howard has received 99 carries and has gained 410 yards in that four-week span. He’s getting a lot of work for a back at 6k and should eclipse 25+ touches. The issue with Howard is that he’s not very active on the receiving end. But in this case, I’m okay with giving up that receiving equity to gain the rushing attempts against a Packers defense that has given up the 10th most rushing TDs. Howard is a nice cash game play as a home favorite.

Carlos Hyde (DK $6,300) – Sticking around the same price range, Carlos Hyde has also been getting an uptick in touches since their rookie quarterback took over. Last week Hyde went for 4x value when he had a team-high 11 targets and caught nine balls for 84 yards to go along with his 12 carries. The 49ers pass blocking is terrible, and they rank in the top 10 in run blocking. In a game that should remain close, the 49ers could lean on Hyde over Bethard’s arm against the Giants who rank 21st in aFPA to running backs.

Bilal Powell (DK $4,000) – Forte missed practice on Wednesday. If Forte is out, Powell will see an uptick in snaps and targets. He’s your ideal back in a PPR format so if Forte’s limited he’s worth a shot.

Cash:

E. Elliott, T. Gurley, L. Fournette, J. Howard, O. Darkwa

Gpp:

(all of above) L. Bell, L. McCoy, L. Fournette, M. Gordon, C. McCaffery, M. Ingram, T. Rawls

Wide Receiver:

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

Julio Jones (DK, $8,000) – Seriously, what is up with Julio this year? I knew the Falcons offense would regress without Kyle Shanahan, but I did not expect Julio to only have one touchdown through week 10. Last week was Julio’s best game in terms of yardage. He saw double-digit targets (12) for only the 3rd time this season and caught half of his targets for 118 yards. The Cowboys rank 24th in the league in aFPA allowed to wide receivers so if Julio is going to get going you’d expect it to come in a home game that could go back and forth. This game has the highest over/under on the slate so it also has the potential to shoot out.   

Golden Tate (DK $6,800) & Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $6,200) – If we expect Stafford to be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, it’s not a bad idea to bring it back with his two primary receivers. We saw Jones go off against the Packers on Monday night and his price does not reflect it, jumping up only $700. Jones actually leads the team in targets the past 3 games with 44 and Tate is second with 32. Tate is more of the slot receiver that racks up PPR points, while Jones is emerging as the bigger red zone threat. Both are in play here against a Browns defense that doesn’t scare me.

Robert Woods (DK $5,000) – Can I catch lightning in a bottle two weeks in a row? I’m not sure. But the Rams receivers are in a decent spot against the Texans who rank 29th in the league in aFPA to wide receivers. Over the past three games, Woods has taken over the target share for the Rams passing offense. Woods leads the wide receivers with 27 targets, followed by Cooper Kupp with 26 and over-rated Sammy Watkins has 16 in the past three weeks. There isn’t much separation, but Woods has returned value his last four games. The problem is that I will likely get my exposure to this high team total with Gurley and Woods is $1,300 more expensive than the past four games.

Value Receivers (I like these value receivers quite a bit)

Adam Humphries (DK $3,100) – He’s the T.Y. Hilton of this week. Nearly the stone minimum with an increase of snap count and a potential increase in targets with Mike Evans suspended for this game. I’m not sure if he’ll be popular, yet but he’s a clear value play to punt at this position. I’m hesitant because Ryan Fitzpatrick will be throwing him the ball and their team total is very low at 20 points.

Corey Davis (DK $4,000) – I’m a fan of Corey Davis for the talent he has. He had a very promising first week of the season, receiving ten targets and catching more than half of those but his progression was slowed down by injury. Last week he returned and played 75% of the snaps. He received five targets and caught two passes. I expect Davis to be on the field more and if you’re playing Mariota, why not stack him with Davis for some salary relief.

Marqise Lee (DK $4,100) – Lee has been the biggest beneficiary once Allen Robinson went down. Since week 2, Lee leads the team in targets with 54 and is averaging over seven targets per game. This week he faces the Chargers who are 17th in aFPA to wide receivers.

Cash:

A. Brown, J. Julio, G. Tate/M. Jones, A. Thielen, A. Humphries, M. Lee

Gpp:

D. Hopkins, D. Bryant, S. Diggs, J. Kearse, R. Woods, J. Smith-Schuster, S. Shepard

Tight End:

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

Eric Ebron (DK $3,100) – Again, back to the Lions passing attack. But this is just following my general rule of thumb. Which team is playing the Browns? Which tight end is starting for them? Play that tight end. Ebron has only scored once this season, but the Browns have given up 6 to tight ends this season.

Garrett Celek (DK $2,500) – Starting tight end George Kittle has already been ruled out for this game, pushing Celek into the starting lineup. In 3 games since starting for the 49ers, Cj Beathard has targeted his tight ends 18 times. The Giants are second to last behind the Browns for most aFPA to tight ends.

Cash:

E. Engram, C. Brate, E. Ebron, G. Celek

Gpp:

V. Davis, D. Walker, H. Henry,

Defense:

Draftkings NFL Cash & GPP Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 10

Defenses are the most volatile picks in a DFS lineup; I often recommend going with whatever is best for your roster construction. This week there are three teams as big favorites and are viable plays. The Browns, Packers, Colts, Texans, Bengals, Chargers, 49ers, and Bucs are all implied to score less than 20 points. Targeting any one of their opponents should be fine for a defense to play.

Cash:

Tennessee, Los Angeles, Chicago, Detroit

Gpp:

Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New York Giants






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 – Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Week 7 is an interesting week that doesn’t feature many heavy favorites. The biggest favorite on the slate are the Dallas Cowboys against the San Francisco 49ers, and the spread is at 6. The big game that most people would like to target is the Falcons at Patriots. However, since Draftkings recently removed the Sunday Night Game off of the Main slate, that game is not available on unless you play the Thursday through Monday slate. Since this article is mainly driven on the DraftKings main slate, I will not be addressing plays from the Sunday Night Game.

For Sunday’s Main slate there are four games that have respectable game totals. The Saints (26.5) at Packers (21) lead the way with a 47.5 over/under followed by the the Rams (25) at Cardinals (21.75) with a 47 o/u. The Browns (20.5) at Titans (26) and the Cowboys (26.25) at 49ers (20.25) both have a total of 46.5. Outside of those games, Vegas sees a lot of cross off games like the Jets (17.75) at Dolphins (20.75), Vikings (22.75) at Ravens (17.25), and even Bears (17.75) at Seahawks (23). Each of these games has over/under of 41 points or less.

Quarterbacks

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 - Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

Tyrod Taylor (DK $5,100) – Taylor might be the highest owned quarterback this week. Taylor is coming off of a bye and is going up against the Bucs who rank 27th DVOA against the pass this season. This gamer currently doesn’t have a line because of the injury status of Jameis Winston, but this game should feature a fair amount of possessions with both teams ranked in the top 15 of the pace of play. Taylor always provides nice rushing upside. We’ve seen Taylor rush for more than seven attempts in all but one game this season. He has yet to find the end zone on the ground, but he could be in for some positive regression.

Dak Prescott (DK $7,300) – The top projected quarterback on the board according to our partner 4for4 projections is Dak. Unfortunately, he doesn’t come cheap as he’s the second highest priced QB on the slate behind Drew Brees. Dak is going up against the 49ers defense that ranked 32 DVOA against the pass, and the Cowboys are projected to score 26+ points. I think this game has some sneaky shootout potential with both defenses ranking in the bottom half of the league (DAL 22nd DVOA). I also think Dak will be a nice pivot off of Elliott who is the chalkier play in this game.

Ben Roethlisberger (DK $6,200) – I haven’t played Ben all year, and I’m pretty happy about that. A big reason why I don’t play Ben is because of his home and road splits. This week, Ben finds himself on the positive side of that splits at home against the Bengals. The Bengals are a far from ideal matchup as they rank 8th DVOA against the pass this season. But he had a nice bounce-back effort last week against the Chiefs after a performance that had him contemplating retirement against the Jags. Ben is a little risky due to his matchup and his performance this season. I just think he has so many talented weapons on his side that this offense has to get it rolling at some point. He’ll be low owned, and the game should stay close, so I like the game script for this matchup.

GPP Value Play

Brett Hundley (DK $5,100) – I keep seeing Hundley’s name on Twitter so it makes me think he won’t be as low owned as I expect but he’s a nice pivot from Taylor. Hundley didn’t look so great replacing Rodgers last week, but this week he gets a full week with the first-team offense. Hundley has been in the Packers organization for the last three season and has a good amount of weapons at his disposal. I expect Drew Brees and the Saints to light up the Packers, so that gives Hundley plenty of opportunity to throw the ball playing catchup. Hundley did rush for over 1,700 yards and 30 touchdowns at UCLA so he can make some plays with his feet. At 5.1K it doesn’t take much to hit value.

Cash Considerations:
D. Brees, D. Prescott, T. Taylor.

GPP:
B. Roethlisberger, B. Hundley, C. Palmer.

 

Running BacksNFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 - Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

Todd Gurley (DK $8,200) – Gurley leads all the running backs in terms of projected raw points. Yes, even over Bell, Elliott, and Fournette who are all priced higher than him. Each of those backs are in great spots as well, but the 4for4 projections as of Wednesday night has Gurley as the frontrunner. Gurley is in an ideal spot for a running back. He’s a home favorite on a team implied to score over 25 points and has received 30 targets this season. The concern is that he’s facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd DVOA against the run.

Jay Ajayi (DK $6,200) – If we’re looking for highest projection of points per dollar, Ajayi leads the charge per the 4for4 projections. Ajayi is projected at over 18 points and with his 6.2k price tag he comes in at over 3x value. Ajayi is also in the same situation as Gurley as he’s a home favorite (-3) against the Jets who rank 21st DVOA against the run. I typically like to target running backs that have more targets upside, but Ajayi has seen some 10 targets the past four weeks. He’s playing on 72% of the snaps and has 88% of the rushing attempts. This game could be low scoring, and if the Dolphins are around their implied total, Ajayi figures to be the primary beneficiary.

Jerick McKinnon (DK $6,300) – We saw McKinnon go off last week for both rushing TD and receiving TD when he was chalk. This week his ownership should regress back down to average as he’s seen his price spike up over $1k. Mckinnon is a home favorite against the Ravens. The Ravens have one of the best passing defenses and have a modest rushing defense so their somewhat of a funnel defense. Baltimore ranks 17th DOVA against the run. If the Vikings are going to attack this Ravens defense, it’s going to have to do so on the ground since Diggs has not practiced and Keenum will be behind center. I’d lean Ajayi over Mckinnon if I had to choose between the two.

GPP Value Play

Alvin Kamara (DK $5,600) – Kamara disappointed some people last week after being out produced by Mark Ingram. Last week Kamara was out snapped 30:47 by Mark Ingram and only received 29% of the rushing attempts out of the Saints backfield. We knew going into last week that Ingram was still the early downs back and Kamara would get his opportunity during 3rd downs. Kamara caught all 4 of his targets last week but only produced 12 receiving yards. He’s still a talented back, and at 5.6K he’s still relatively cheap to garnish some GPP consideration.

Cash + GPP Plays:
Gurley, Bell, Ajayi, Fournette, Elliott, Ingram.

Gpp Plays:
McCoy, Hyde, McCaffrey, Kamara, McKinnon, Henry (if Murray is out Henry is a top play).

Wide Receivers

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 - Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

Aj Green (DK $8,300) – Currently the second highest priced wideout and the second highest projected receiver on our board, Aj Green is a great play this week. Since changing offensive coordinators, Green leads the team in targets with 33 (11/game) and has scored three straight weeks. Bill Lazor is making an effort to get the ball to Green, and he’s showing them why by posting up monster games. He’s priced up with Antonio Brown, but if you want to make a contrarian lineup, paying up for both of these receivers and finding value at running back is a good way to do so.

Dez Bryant (DK $7,800) – Dez and the Cowboys receivers are going up against the 49ers who rank dead last DVOA against opposing receivers this season. Bryant has a solid floor with over 11 projected targets according to 4for4. At $7,800 he’s the third highest priced receiver on the board and has the third highest projection of the week. I think this game could be a sneaky shootout and I think a Bryant/Dak stack could be a nice hedge from the Cowboys running game.

Devante Adams (DK $5,800) – Adams was Hundley’s favorite target last week after replacing Rodgers. Adams had a difficult matchup last week against Xavier Rhodes but still saw 10 targets from Hundley. He was able to produce 5 catches for 55 yards and a score with those Targets. This week he’s going up against a Saints defense that ranks 12th DVOA against receivers, but I see Adams getting an ample amount of targets in this one.

GPP Value Play

Bennie Fowler (DK $3,300) – Emmanuel Sanders is expected to miss this week, and Fowler figures to set into Sanders’ role. Fowler saw 8 targets from Siemian last week and played 75 % of the snaps. He only has 13 catches on the season, but most of his production has come from the slot. Now he should get some time as the 2nd receiver behind Thomas. Fowler did score twice against the Chargers in week 1, so there could be something he sees against this Charger defense.

Cash + GPP Plays:
Brown, Green, Bryant, Thomas, Fitzgerald, Landry, Baldwin, Adams, Garcon.

GPP Plays:
E. Decker, K. Benjamin, J. Nelson, K. Allen, R. Matthews, M. Lee, B. Fowler, R. Woods.

Tight End

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 - Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

Delanie Walker (DK $5,800) – Walker has had a down start to the season, yet to find the end zone. But what do I always say? Play tight ends against the Browns. This week Walker is that tight end. He is second on the team in targets only behind Rishard Matthews but is averaging 14% targets per snap. He is, however, the most expensive tight end on the board.

George Kittle (DK $3,600) – Kittle’s price is starting to rise against with his production the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, Kittle has had 17 targets and has caught 13 receptions for 128 yards and a touchdown. This week the 49ers will roll out rookie QB CJ Beathard who out of Iowa. Beathard and Kittle were teammates for four years in college. The rookie could lean on Kittle to move the ball. The Cowboys also rank 31st in DVOA against the tight ends this season.

GPP Value Play

Zach Miller (DK $3,200) – Miller has seen an uptick in production since the Bears made the movie to first-round draft pick Mitchell Trubisky. Miller has 5 receptions on 10 targets with Trubisky under center and has scored twice the past two weeks. Miller is a nice value play at this price.

Cash:
Kittle, ASJ, Witten, Graham.

GPP:
Walker, Engram, Miller, Kroft, Bennett, Fleener.

Defense
NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football Week 7 - Draftkings Cash and Gpp Plays

Rams (DK $2,600) – Defenses are so volatile I usually tend to look for the defense with the best value. The Rams rank third in our projected points per dollar scoring and are home favorites against the Cardinals. The Cardinals offense airs out the ball quite a bit and gives up a lot of sacks. The Rams front seven should be able to put pressure on Palmer and get a few sack in this game.






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 6 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

The Week 6 teams on bye aren’t as difficult to overcome compared to last week’s teams. This week the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks are all on bye. That being said there are a few games that are worth targeting if you are starting your research with Vegas totals. There are 7 games with a game total over 46 points, including the most appealing of them all in New Orleans (50). Let’s take a look at some plays this week from each position.

Quarterback:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints - Lineup lab

As I’ve mentioned throughout this year, quarterback ownership is almost always spread out equally, that there rarely is a QB that we see over 20% owned. That figures to be the case this week with several good options on the slate.

Drew Brees (DK $7,200, FD $8,600) – Brees is surprisingly not the highest priced QB on neither DK or FD. He’s the third priced QB on both sites and is in a pretty damn good spot. If you’re a football fan, you’re well aware of Bree’s home and road splits. Brees has averaged over 300 yards and has had a 2:1 TD to interception ratio in dome stadiums. This week Brees is at home coming off a bye against a Lions team that has been over performing to start the season. To add more frosting to the cake, Brees is a slight home favorite implied to score 27.25 points. This game has the slates highest over/under (50), so Vegas is expecting these two teams to light up the scoreboard. Brees will be popular this week.

Matthew Stafford (DK $ 6,500, FD $8,500) – For all the reasons mentioned in the Brees section, I think Stafford will be popular on this slate. He’s $700 cheaper on DK than Brees so the savings could make him higher owned than Brees, but on FD he’s essentially a pick ‘em with only $100 separating the two. This game is one of the few games with a high total and a relatively close spread so if any game is going to shoot out; it will likely be this one.

Deshaun Watson (DK $6,700, FD $7,900) – Watson is another QB I expect will garnish some ownership based on his recent play. Watson has averaged 31.8 DK points over the past 3 weeks, and his price spike reflects his performance. He does have a good matchup as a home favorite against the Browns who are worst in the league in adjusted fantasy points allowed (26.3). His rushing ability gives him a nice floor for cash games, but in gpps, I like fading him for my favorite quarterback on the week (next player). He’s not a bad play at all, but he’s gotten to be a little too expensive for my taste, especially when you consider that most of his TD production last week came during garbage time against the Chiefs.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,800, FD $ 7,800) – Cousins is the same price point as the last two QBs I mentioned above, and I feel he will be the least owned, which is why I like him for gpps. Cousins is coming off of a bye week and facing the 49ers who are coming off their second consecutive road overtime loss. Cousins and the Redskins go into week 6 with the highest implied team total (28.8) and are 10.5 point favorites. The 49ers are probably the best winless team in the league, losing 4 games by a combined 11 points, but their secondary can be attacked. Per PFF, the 49ers have 3 of the worst rated corners. Dontae Johnson rated no. 108 of 109, Rashard Robinson is no. 104, and K’Waun Williams is no. 99. The Redskins should be able to attack through the air, especially with Rob Kelly expected to be out.

Bargain Barrel:

Carson Palmer, Jameis Winston, Jacoby Brissett

Running Backs:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeVonta Freeman - Lineuplab.com

Kareem Hunt (DK $8,200, FD $9,300) – I wasn’t going to write up Hunt because by now you should be aware of the amount of volume he’s been getting this season. On DK he’s $1,400 cheap than Bell, which is insane when you factor in that the Chiefs are home favorites over the Steelers. Hunt lost a lot of fantasy points last week with two flukey touchdowns by Charcandrick West. This week Hunt is going up against the Steelers who are 31st DVOA against the run and just got burned for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns from top rookie Leonard Fournette. Hunt is currently projected as our top RB this week over Bell, regardless of price.

Leonard Fournette (DK, $8,000, FD, $8,600) – Speaking of rookies. It’s about time to start talking about Fournette on a consistent basis. He’s averaging 24 touches per game and has scored in all but one game this season. There’s no secret the Jags are trying to keep the ball out of Bortles’ hands as much, which leads to Fournette carrying the offensive workload. Through the first 5 weeks, Fournette has received 70% of the carries and has been targeted 15 times. He’s going up against a Rams defense that ranks 32nd in aFPA (32.8). The Jags are a slight home favorite, so that also bodes well for Fournette.

Devonta Freeman (DK $7,400, FD $ 8,500) – Freeman is the better play on DK since his salary gives you bigger savings from the two backs mentioned above. Freeman has the luxury of playing behind the number 1 rated run blocking offensive line according to PFF. The Falcons are among the biggest home favorites this week (11.5) and are implied to score over 28 points. The Dolphins rank in the middle of the pack in aFPA with an average of 21 PPG. There’s always a concern with splitting carries with Tevin Coleman, but through the Falcons first 4 games, Freeman has 73% of the carries compared to Coleman’s 27%.

Mark Ingram (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,900) – A true committee that a lot of DFS players will have their eye on. With the trade of Adrian Peterson, this backfield is now a true timeshare between Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara (DK $4,500, FD $ 5,800). My initial thought is that Kamara will be the more popular back because of his involvement in the passing game and his big game before last week’s bye. Kamara went for 25.6 DK points on 10 receptions for 71 yards and a TD. This game has shootout written all over it so Kamara could continue to see more passing targets out of the backfield. My only concern here is that although Ingram is being phased out by the coaches, he’s still seeing over 55% of the carries and 36% of the targets. Ingram does have pass-catching upside and is still the goal line back, so he’d be the preferred choice on FD. However, on DK I think I’d have to lean on Kamara for the bigger PPR upside.

Jerick McKinnon (DK $4,100, FD $5,600) – Another running back situation that people will monitor is the Vikings’ committee. Last week in their first week without Delvin Cook, McKinnon saw 67% of the snaps compared to Murray who saw 31%. The carries were 55% for McKinnon and 41% to Murray. McKinnon led all backs with 6 receptions on 6 targets, while Murray seemed to be phased out in the second half. McKinnon was more successful with his workload averaging 5.9 YPC compared to Murray’s 2.6. McKinnon is currently rated as our top value play (points per dollar) on DK and FD.

Chris Thompson (DK $5,000) – A nice GPP pivot off the chalkier cheaper options I mentioned above. If Rob Kelly misses like the reports indicate he is, Thompson could be a great gpp option against the 49ers. He’s not that cheap on DK but has a lot of upside. Samaje Perine could work the early downs but Thompson is the featured back in the passing game, which I expect the Redskins to focus on.

Other Viable Options:

CJ Anderson, M. Gordon, T. Gurley, A. Jones *T. Montgomery out*, L. Miller, E. McGuire.

Wide Receivers:

NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - DeAndre Hopkins - Lineup Lab 

Wide Receiver is a little more open season when compared to running backs. There are a lot of teams that are big favorites so there are really only a few passing offenses that you want to use.

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,100, FD $8,000) – Nuke’s price took a STEEP hike on DK, rising over $1,700 after a 3 touchdown performance against the Chiefs. But even at over 8K, that price is finally warranted for a guy that is receiving over 12 targets per game. Through 5 weeks of the season, Hopkins only trails Antonio Brown for most targets in the league. This week Hopkins has an above average matchup against Jason McCourty, who actually has a great grade on PFF(91.7), but the past two seasons he’s averaged a grade in the mid 50’s. It’s also worth noting that Hopkins is expected to lineup against Jamar Taylor (has a 45.1 PFF rating) in two WR sets. Hopkins should be able to produce with the 12+ targets he’s expected to see.

Julio Jones (DK, $8,300, FD $8,400) – I have yet to roster Julio this season, and thankfully so. Julio has yet to score this year and only has 30 targets on the season (4 games). But I have a feeling this is the week we see Julio get back on track. The Falcons are really thin at WR and Julio will be facing either Cordrea Tankersley or Xavien Howard. Regardless of who Julio matches up against, he’s virtually matchup proof. Julio notoriously plays better at home than on the road. It’s about time Julio finds the endzone this week.

Pierre Garcon (DK $ 6,300, FD $6,800) – I loved Garcon last week against the Colts despite going up against Vontae Davis. This week I want to go back to the well in a game that I expect the 49ers to be trailing. The Redskins will be without Josh Norman which helps Garcon. Garcon is currently 8th in the league in targets with 44 through 5 games. This week Garcon could face Quinton Dunbar and Bashaud Breeland who are both targetable corners. I expect Garcon to get 10-12 targets this game and can very well see him putting up over 14 fantasy points.

Adam Thielen (DK $6,000 FD $6,500) – Thielen gets a great matchup here against a bad Packers secondary. Thielen is the primary slot receiver for the Vikings so he’ll face Quinten Rollins who is one of the worst slot corners according to PFF. The Packers should jump out to an early lead, which would mean the Vikings would have to pass the ball more. It’s worth monitoring Bradford’s status as game day gets closer.

Cash Viable Plays:

M. Thomas, K.Allen, L. Fitzgerald, J. Landry, G. Tate,  C. Hogan, A. Cooper.

Gpp Flyers:

D. Jackson, John Brown, M. Jones Jr., T. Hill, D. Amendola, B. Cooks, T. Pryor Sr.

Value Receivers

A. Wilson, J. Kearse, J. Crowder.

Tight Ends:

Hunter Henry - NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - San Diego Chargers - Lineuplab.com

Hunter Henry (DK $4,100, FD $5,400) – Henry looks to have finally taken over the tight end position for the Chargers. After 3 weeks of force-feeding Antonio Gates, Henry has finally become a part of the offense. He has now scored in two straight weeks. He ran 33 routes in over 75% of snaps he played last week.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $4,300, FD $5,600) – ASJ came through last week by scoring a touchdown. That now gives him an average of 6 targets the past 3 weeks. He’s going up against the Patriots who will get out to a big lead and have allowed the most passing yards in the league. 

Travis Kelce (DK $6,100, FD $7,200) – Kelce is the top projected TE on both sites this week. Kelce has 20 targets the last two weeks. Keep an eye out on the Chiefs injury report to make sure Kelce is active.

Defense:

 NFL Lineups Daily Fantasy Football - Baltimore Ravens - Lineuplab.com

There are 5 teams that are currently more than a touchdown favorite. The Patriots are the only team in that bunch that is not at home. The Ravens (16.5), Falcons (17.25), Redskins (18), Texans (18.5), and the Patriots (20) are all going up against teams implied to score less than 20 points. Defense is very volatile so any one of these could land atop the leaderboards. The Ravens are currently our top projected defense. While the Bucs are the best value projected to score nearly 3x.

Good Luck!






NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 5 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Week 5 brings us the first scheduled bye week (Tampa Bay and Miami week 1 bye week was obviously not scheduled). This leaves us incredibly thin at Quarterback if you are playing the main slate. *Note that Draftkings main slate does not include Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, nor Monday Night Football* This week we’ll be without the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, and Washington Redskins.

Let’s get to the position breakdown.

Quarterbacks

As I mentioned, QB is incredibly thin if you’re playing Draftkings main slate. With the teams on byes that leaves us without Brees, Ryan, Siemian, and Cousins. Each are quarterbacks who could warrant usage in a week with a solid matchup. The list of available quarterbacks becomes even shorter when you exclude the TNF, SNF, and MNF game. That removes Brady, Winston, A. Smith, and Watson from the slate. So as you can see we are missing quite a few relevant quarterbacks on the main slate. My best advice if you want to get exposure to any of these guys would be to play on the Thurs-Mon slate, but for the sake of consistency, I’ll only address players on the main slate.

Aaron Rodgers (DK $8,100, FD $9,500) – The highest priced QB on both sites and for a good reason. Rodgers comes into the game with the highest over/under at 52.5. The Packers are currently 2 point underdogs implied to score the second highest mark on the slate (25.25). Rodgers has played three of his first four games at home but was able to eclipse the 300-yard mark and throw two touchdowns against the Falcons in week 2. This week the Packers offense should look to rely more on Rodgers’ arm with Ty Montgomery expected to miss the game with a rib injury. Pay up for Rodgers if you can afford him in cash games.

Dak Prescott (DK $6,800, FD $7,700) – Staying in the same game, let’s go to the opposite side of the ball. Prescott and the Cowboys currently have the largest implied team total on the slate (27.25) and are at home against a Packers secondary that has yet to allow a 300-yard passer through the first four games. The Packers secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to an average of 210 yards and 1 touchdown. It is worth noting that three of those four games have been at home and against quarterbacks off to a slow start (Wilson, Dalton, and Glennon). The situation may not seem to be ideal for Prescott, but I expect the Packers secondary to regress a bit, especially with Rodgers needing to throw the ball more. Prescott does have some rushing equity, which could help him reach value. Currently, Dak is projected to score the fifth highest total according to Lineup Labs player pool.

Carson Palmer (DK $5,900, FD $7,200) – If you’re looking for value you may want to consider Carson Palmer, who is currently rated as our second highest points/dollar QB. Palmer is on the road facing the Eagles who have averaged 300 yards and 1.8 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks per game. The Cardinals are about a touchdown underdog so the game script could favor Palmer if the Cards fall behind and he has to throw 40+ times. Consider Palmer a gpp only flyer.

Other options to consider
Matthew Stafford (DK $6,300, FD $7,600) – Stafford is one of the most talented QBs on the slate but has a difficult matchup against the Panthers at home. The Panthers have averaged 211 passing yards and 1.3 touchdowns this season. They have shown vulnerabilities against good QBs, allowing Brees and Brady to combine for 527 yards and five touchdowns the last two weeks.

Brian Hoyer (DK $4,700, FD $6,500) – Again a pure value play that allows you to allocate salary at other positions, but Hoyer is facing a Colts defense that has averaged a touchdown and over 240 in every game this season.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,500, FD $9,500) – Finally, the Le ‘Veon we all grew to know and respect made an impact this season. Bell is coming off of a 39 touch game, in which he totaled 186 yards and two touchdowns against a solid Ravens defense. The Steelers are the biggest favorite on the slate (8.5) and are at home so Le’Veon checks all the boxes you’d want for your number 1 running back. The issue is trying to get the salary to pay up for him.

Todd Gurley II (DK $8,000, FD $7,800) – Gurley makes his way on the list over Zeke simply because of the salary savings you get. On DK you save $800, and on FD you save $900 from Zeke. I expect Zeke to have higher ownership than Gurley and rightfully so as Like Bell, Zeke is a home favorite and coming off of a big game. But here’s the kicker, Gurley is too. Surprisingly the Rams are a slight favorite over the Seahawks at home (-1) and are implied to score 24.25 points. Gurley has been heavily involved in the passing game this year and should get plenty of work in a game I expect to be a slugfest. Gurley is second in our projected points behind Bell.

Jonathan Stewart (DK $3,900, FD $5,700) – Looking for a value you may want to drop all the way down to Jonathan Stewart. Yes, I know his role has diminished since McCaffrey has joined the Panthers backfield, but Stewart has continued to get the majority of the carries. Through the first four weeks, Stewart has received 63% of the rushing attempts out of the Carolina backfield. Stewart is only playing in 42% of the snaps, which trails McCaffrey, but at 3,900 on DK if Stewart finds the end zone he could very well hit 3x value. Stewart is currently ranked as our top-rated value play according to DFSR projections.

GPP Flyer 

Joe Mixon (DK $5,500, FD $5,900) – His price actually dropped a couple of hundred dollars ($200) on DK, which is surprising. Coming into the season, it was only a matter of time before Mixon took over the Bengals backfield. Since firing Ken Zampese and appointing Bill Lazor as the OC, Mixon has received 52% of the snaps and 65 % of the rushing attempts out of the Bengals backfield. Last week Mixon had 17 rushes and four catches on four targets but was only able to muster 28 yards. He’s going up against a tough Bills defense, but as a 3 point home favorite, I can get around the idea of sprinkling in some Mixon on my GPP teams.

** It’s worth monitoring the Packers practice reports. Montgomery is expected to miss so that could lead to more opportunities for Aaron Jones. But at $5,100 on DK and $5,900 on FD, I’d rather take my chances with Mixon over Jones.

Other options to consider
Melvin Gordon, Jay Ajayi, Frank Gore, Ameer Abdullah, Duke Johnson, Bilal Powell, Wendell Smallwood.

Wide Receivers

Dez Bryant (DK $6,500, FD $7,800) – Dez is perhaps my favorite wide receiver to play this week for the sole reason that the game script may lead to more targets for Dez. Dez is currently 4th in the NFL in targets with 40, which is just over 42% of Dak Prescott’s targets. The Cowboys are implied to score over 27 points, and the game script could mean that the Dallas passing offense will need to be in full force, so I expect Bryant to get a lot of looks. Bryant only has a 40% catch rate on his targets, but that has a lot to do with the difficult matchups he’s had to deal with through the first four weeks of the season. I like a Dak and Dez stack to help differentiate lineups.

Jordy Nelson (DK $8,100, FD $8,600) – Jordy will be the most popular receiver in the slate. Nelson figures to get a lot of work considering that the Packers will abandon the run game and force Rodgers to throw 45+ times. Nelson is coming off of a week 3 where he caught 4 of his seven targets, which included two touchdowns against the Bears. Nelson has now caught over 60% of his targets and has scored four touchdowns in what really was only 3 full games on the field.

Randall Cobb (DK $6,700, FD $6,600) – If you have not noticed yet, I really like every aspect of this Green Bay vs. Dallas game. The Packers are going to be one dimensional, and I think the Cowboys are going to have to play catch up. But Cobb is my sneaky play here. With Ty out I can see a situation where Cobb gets some work out of the backfield, adding in 3-5 more touches for the game. Cobb does most of his damage in the slot, but if Adams and Montgomery are out, I see him playing the same role that Montgomery played last year where the Packers had backfield issues. This, of course, could make Geronimo Allison a play with Cobb getting less work in the slot. This entire Packers offense is a situation worth monitoring.

DeVante Parker (DK $6,600, FD $ 6,100) – It’s tough to trust any aspect of the Dolphins offense attack, especially when you consider that Jay Cutler hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdown passes in his last 16 starts. That being said, Parker is someone worth writing about. Parker is 18th in the league with 18 targets and has caught over 75% of those targets (14). The Titans rank 32nd in the league in aFPA to wide receivers, so this could be the breakout week for Parker.

Aldrick Robinson (DK $3,100, FD $4,600) – One of my favorite DFS writers, Adam Levitan love Aldrick for the sake of #Preseason. Aldrick has dominated preseason the past two years under Shanahan and now may get more of an opportunity with Marquise Goodwin in the concussion protocol. Last week Robinson had 12 targets in an 86% of the offensive snaps. If Goodwin is out, like I expect him to be, Robinson is likely to be a beneficiary. The 49ers are going up against the Colts secondary that has had a lot of trouble at WR this year.

Tight End

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK $3,500, FD $5,500) – I don’t know why I went away from playing tight ends against the Browns last week but lessoned learned and I’m not doing that again. The Browns rank 32nd against TE in aFPA, averaging just over 15 points per game. Jesse James lit up this defense in week 1 and so did Ben Watson, now after adding Tyler Kroft to the list, I can’t help but add ASJ to the list.

Delanie Walker (DK $4,700, FD $6,000) – Walker is 6th in the league in targets with 14 and now has to deal with a quarterback change with Mariota out. Matt Cassel will start this week and will likely be looking for a security blanket to dump the ball off to. Walker should be the most significant beneficiary of the Mariota injury. Walker is currently the third highest projected tight end according to our projections.

Tyler Kroft (DK $ 3,200, FD $5,500) – Kroft leads our projections as our top value play for the week. After a big performance against the Browns, Kroft figures to be an essential role in the Bengals red zone passing attack. Kroft caught six of his seven targets last week with Tyler Eifert out for the Bengals.

Defense

Pittsburgh Steelers (DK $3,900, FD $4,800) – The Steelers are the highest projected defense on both sites according to Lineup Labs and rightfully so. They are the biggest favorite on the slate, at home, and are going up against the Jags who are implied to score 17.5 points. The issue here is that they’re costly. They may be safe, but I’ll more than likely be looking elsewhere for defense.

San Francisco 49ers (DK $2,600, FD $4,200) – I think the 49ers are in a good spot to take advantage of a lousy offense. The Colts line gives up over 3 sacks per game, and the 49ers have a much improved defensive line. This 49er team has had a rough schedule to begin the season, but their defense has performed well even without their late first-round pick Reuben Foster.

 

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 3 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

We close the book on Week 2 of the NFL season after a relatively chalky NFL slate. We saw several of the obvious plays hit like Tom Brady, Ty Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, and even Coby Fleener all hit value

 

Now we transition to Week 3, which opens up as an unusual ten home teams as current underdogs. The Patriots, Eagles, Panthers, Titans, and Packers are the only home teams that are favored in the main slate. That doesn’t exactly say everything about the slate quite yet; it just means ownership may be more spread out than what we’ve seen the first two weeks. So without further or do, let’s dive in.

Quarterbacks

Matt Ryan (DK $7,100, FD $8,500) – One of the first things I look for when looking into Quarterbacks are team implied totals. Matt Ryan comes in after a dominant performance against the Packers on Sunday Night Football with an implied team total of 26.75 against the Lions. That’s good enough for third highest on the slate behind only the Patriots and the Raiders. The Lions are currently 12 worst in the league by averaging 236 passing yards per game and are averaging 40 passing attempts allowed per game. This game originally opened up with a 48.5 o/u and has since moved to 50.5, which is good enough for the second highest total of the week. The game is on the road for the Falcons, and Ryan is known for performing better at home, so there is a reason to temper expectations. But in a matchup against an improved Lions offense with a secondary bad secondary, the game flow could mean Ryan will a lot of opportunities to chuck the ball.

Matthew Stafford (DK $6,200, FD $7,900) – Pivoting to the other side of the ball, Stafford has done reasonably well his first two weeks against the Cardinals and the Giants. Two opponents that are tougher on paper than his matchup this week. Stafford comes into the week as a 3 point underdog and with an implied team total of 23.75. Stafford is returning home where he threw for 4 touchdowns and 292 yards in Week 1 against a good Cardinals secondary. Out of all the games this week, this Lions/Falcons game is my favorite for quarterback points.

Kirk Cousins (DK $6,100, FD $7,600) – Cousins has been disappointing the first two weeks. He had a disappointing game on the road against the Rams and was mediocre against the Eagles in the opening week. This week could potentially be a rebound spot for Cousins. He’s at home facing a Raiders defense that has been overachieving the first two weeks of the season. The Raiders are averaging only 200 passing yards per game and have only allowed two passing touchdowns on the year. Last year the Raiders were one of the worst secondaries in the league and did very little to improve that unit this offseason. Oakland does have one of the league’s best offenses in the league, which explains the high o/u at 54 (highest of the week). Give me a low-owned Kirk Cousins against a weak secondary at home, even as a 3 point underdog.

Value QB

Andy Dalton (DK $5,100, FD $6,800) – Andy Dalton has been terrible the first two weeks. In fact, the entire Bengals offense has as they are 1 of 2 teams (49ers) that have yet to find the end zone this season. That being said, Dalton has had two difficult matchups after facing the Ravens and the Texans on a short week. The Bengals opened the week as a 10 point underdog on the road against the Packers, but have since narrowed the line to +8.5. Aaron Rodgers is without a doubt looking to light up the scoreboard after getting run over by the Falcons (again) on national TV, so I expect Dalton to have plenty of garbage time opportunities to throw the ball.

Running Backs

Le’Veon Bell (DK $8,800, FD $8,700) – To say Bell has been disappointing the first two weeks is an understatement. He’s been so disappointing that Elliott eclipsed him as the most expensive running back on this week. But this week could be the week we get Bell at depressed ownership and in a bounce-back spot. He doesn’t quite check all the boxes going up against an improved front seven in Chicago, but the Steelers are 7 point favorites. We saw Bell get 27 rushes last week and also 4 targets, so the volume is much improved after that bizarre first week. We all know Big Ben’s struggles on the road, yet the Steelers are still are implied to score 26 points. This should be a get well spot for Bell.

CJ Anderson (DK $5,800, FD $6,900) – Anderson is way too cheap on DK at 5.8k. The Broncos have shown that Anderson is the feature back while Jamaal Charles has only found his way on the field in passing situations. Anderson owns 70% of the Broncos rushing attempts after two weeks and has produced just under 200 yards (199). He also has 4 catches on 6 targets, which adds to his value on DK. The Broncos are a 3 point favorite against the Bills in a game that could feature both running backs with their pedestrian passing games and minimal projections. Anderson is projected as the third best running pack (point per dollar) on LineupLabs.

Isaiah Crowell (DK $4,800, FD $6,600) – If you drafted Crowell as I did in season long or redraft leagues, you’re probably frustrated with the thought of playing him in DFS. But the truth is, if there is ever a spot to play Crowell, it might be this week. Crowell is facing a Colts defense whose defensive line may have more holes than swiss cheese. This game has one of the lowest totals on the week and rightfully so as both teams have young offenses. Crowell does have the luxury of running behind the best offensive line in the league per PFF.com, so this could be a breakout week for Crowell.

GPP Flyer

Mike Gillislee (DK $5,700, FD $6,800) – Probably the better site to play him is on FD since he’s so touchdown dependent, but that’s exactly why he’s a shot in the dark. Gillislee has scored 4 touchdowns in the first two weeks. He leads the league in rushes inside the 5-yard line, converting each 4 of his carries into touchdowns. Although Gillislee is touchdown dependent, he does own 59% of the market share of rushes out of the Patriots backfield. The Pats are the biggest favorite of the week (13.5), and at home so Gillislee should get a shot at a cheap TD.

Cash game plays not noted above: M. Gordon, K. Hunt, J. Ajayi, T. Montgomery.
GPP Flyers: L.McCoy, D. Freeman, C. McCaffrey

Wide Receivers:

AJ Green (DK $8,100, FD $ 7,500) – I talked about Green’s quarterback up top. I like the idea of targeting this game from the Bengals passing attack with the likelihood that they will be playing catch-up for the majority of the game. Green currently accounts for 30% of the Bengals’ targets through the first two games of the season. He’s seen 18 targets and has caught 10 of them for 141 yards. He has yet to find the end zone, but as I mentioned with Dalton, they have had two tough matchups. This week they go up against a Packers secondary that got torched by Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu in really what was only one-half of competitive football. The Packers rank 18th in the league in FP allowed to opposing WR by allowing 18 points through the first two weeks. I can see Green getting one, possibly two touchdowns in garbage time.

Michael Crabtree (DK $7,400, FD  $7,700) – I really thought that Amari Cooper was going to peak this season and Crabtree was going to begin declining. That clearly wasn’t the case last week when Crabtree scored 3 times on 6 targets, while Cooper only saw 5. I still think this may happen, but at least for this week, Crabtree might be the play over Cooper again. The big reason is that I expect Josh Norman to spend most of his time against Cooper, which would leave Crabtree lined up against Bashaud Breeland who currently has a PFF grade of 67.2. If Crabtree does face Breeland throughout the game, he should be able to find the end zone again.

Value

Rashard Higgins (DK $4,000, FD $5,100) – Higgins got a lot more playing time once the Brown’s top receiver Corey Coleman left the game. Coleman was eventually placed on IR and Higgins looks to be the biggest beneficiary from the move. Higgins got 11 targets from Kizer and caught 7 for 95 yards last week.

Devin Funchess (DK $4,200, FD $4,800) – With the injury to tight end Greg Olsen, Cam Newton will have to find someone over the middle of the field to dump the ball off. Per PFF.com, Funches is expected to lineup in 2 and 3 wide receiver sets against P.J. Williams. Williams is by far the Saints worst graded corner (42.7) in a secondary that has gotten torched by Brady and Bradford to begin the season. With Olsen out that’s going to open up more targets for the Panthers passing attack. I expect McCaffrey to see an uptick in targets but Funches should also benefit from Olsen’s absence.

** Devonte Adams is practically a free square if Nelson and Cobb are out ** 

GPP Flyer

DeAndre Hopkins (DK $6,200, FD $ 7,500) – Similar to Green’s situation, Hopkins is likely to find his team chasing a high-powered offense. Hopkins is currently third in the NFL in targets with 13 and also leads the NFL in team target market share 54.2%. It’s amazing how Watson just continues to chuck the ball Hopkins way. The Pats are currently 29th in the league against WR by allowing an average of 27.6 points to opposing wideouts. Hopkins is GPP only because Belichick is notorious for taking away the opposing team’s best weapon, which is Nuke.

Other Middle/Top Tier Options: M. Evans (GPP), K. Allen (Cash), D. Baldwin (GPP), T. Hill (Cash)

Tight End

For the first time this season there isn’t a clear-cut chalk tight end that will be heavily owned in cash games. At least for now. Below are a few of the best options when considering price per dollar spent.

Martellus Bennett (DK $4,400, FD $ 5,600) – Bennett is the tight end that I’m watching pretty closely. As I’m writing this Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have missed practice early in the week after leaving last week’s game against the Falcons. If one or neither of these players play that leaves plenty of targets up for grabs for the Packers, pass catchers, and I expect Bennett to be a beneficiary. Last week Bennett saw 11 targets with both Nelson and Cobb out of the game. Bennett would face a Bengals defense that ranked 30th in the league against tight ends last season.

Jack Doyle (DK $ 3,600, FD $5,300) – Doyle may be the heaviest owned TE on the week considering many DFS players will stick to recency bias and save their money by using Doyle as their value play. Doyle is certainly cheap and is coming off of a nice outing with Colts’ new quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Brissett targeted Doyle 8 times last week and Doyle caught every one of those targets and gained 79 yards to lead the team in receiving.

GPP Flyer

Jordan Reed (DK $5,400, FD $ 6,700) – Reed is limited to a tournament play only because he has missed practice early this week. Reed is listed as questionable which is likely to drive down his ownership. I already expressed my interest in the ‘skins offense in the QB section and I think adding Reed to a game stack for this Sunday night hammer could lead to a big payoff. Reed is among the top 5 TE in targets this season accounting for 20% of the team’s targets.

Cash game plays not noted above: Z. Ertz, T. Kelce, E. Ebron

Gpp Flyer: R. Gronkowski, D. Allen (if Gronk is inactive)

Defense

With 10 home teams as current underdogs ownership is likely to be spread out at defense.

New England Patriots (DK $3,800, FD $4,900) – The Patriots are at home facing the Texans who are implied to score a slate low 15.25 points. According to Vegas, they seem like the safest play. The issue is that they’re the most expensive option on DK and 4th most expensive on FD. If you’re able to fit them in your lineups, you probably should. Belichick will without a doubt have a scheme to unravel rookie QB Deshaun Watson

Tennessee Titans (DK $ 2,700, FD $4,300) – If you’re scraping the bottom of the barrel on defense I won’t blame you. As we get deeper in the week, I find myself justifying using the Titans for a few reasons. They’re home favorites (-3), Russell Wilson’s terrible home/road splits, and the Seahawks’ team total has dropped from 20.25 to 19.75. The Seahawks haven’t got their offense going this season and were lucky to survive a home game against the 49ers. The Titans like to control the clock by running the ball which could limit possessions, which limits scoring

 

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football: Week 2 Cash and GPP Plays

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

The NFL Week 2 slate kicks off with two games on the main slate that currently have Vegas over/under greater than 53. Per usual, these games will see the heaviest amount of ownership in cash games and tournaments. The difference this week from the first week is that these games actually consist of four high-powered offensive teams. Before I dive into this week’s positional breakdown, I’ll give a preview of the two games that could dictate the landscape of week 2.

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Put our picks into the optimizer and let us help crunch the numbers, or browse through the Week 2 studs and sleepers with NFL Player Lab.

Patriots (31) @ Saints (24.5) o/u 54 (open) 55.5 (live)

The Patriots come into week 2 0-1 for the first time since 2014. If you’re panicking as a Patriots fan, you really shouldn’t, the last three times the Patriots started 0-1 they went on to win the Super Bowl. Bill Belichick is 42-6 following a loss. The Vegas lined open with the Patriots as a 4.5 point favorite but has since moved to a 6.5 favorite over the Saints giving the Patriots the highest implied team total on the main slate. They are going up against a Saints defense that just got lit up by Sam Bradford on Monday night football. Last season the Saints ranked 27th in the league in Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) and 23rd against opposing wide receivers. To say the Saints have a bad secondary is an understatement. So Tom Brady against the Saints after not throwing a touchdown pass in the first game of the season is in a great spot. The Patriots offense as a whole with 10 days to prepare for this week going up against a Saints defense that has had 5 days to prepare an irritated Belichick.

Now the Saints aren’t in a bad spot themselves. They are playing in what many of the DFS community call the Coors Field of the NFL, the Superdome. The Saints offense passed the ball on nearly 60% of their offensive plays in the first week against the Vikings. The fact that they are about a touchdown underdog shows that Vegas believes they could be trailing throughout the game and could lead to more of the same game script for the Saints offense. Drew Brees is notorious for his home and road splits, and this week he’s back at home, and the Saints offense has performed much better when playing at home.

We always got to remember that Vegas isn’t always 100 percent right, but they are often a good indicator of game scripts. Figuring out how to roster a few players in this game will be key having a successful week 2.

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Packers (25.5) @ Falcons (28) o/u 53.5

These two teams meet up for the first time since the NFC Championship in a highly anticipated rematch. These two teams are also coming off of a week 1 offensive let down where they had similar positive Vegas numbers. Both teams had their fair share of concerns back in week 1. The Falcons were on the road, and the Packers were going up against an improved Seahawks defense. But onward to this week!

The Falcons return home where they flat out dominated the league with their high-powered offense. The difference is that this season they have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Sarkisian who managed the Falcons to a 57-43 pass to run ratio. Matt Ryan is going up against the Packers defense that was 31st in passing yards allowed and 29th in quarterback touchdowns. Matt Ryan at home against a mediocre Packers secondary is just as must as a lock as a top quarterback could be.

While the Falcons are favored by just under a field goal, the Packers implied total is also top 10 in the week. The Packers offenses threw at a 60-40 percent ratio against a tough Seattle passing defense and were able to manage over 300 yards. Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Falcons in his first two meetings against them accumulating 7 touchdowns on 573 yards against the Falcons.

This game will be featured as the Sunday night game, and you’d want to construct your lineups to have some exposure to this game or else you could see yourself dropping on the leaderboards.

Now that we looked into the two games that could have the highest impact on this week’s slate let’s take a look at a few other options at the different positions.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football - Lineuplab - Derek Carr

Quarterbacks:

If week 1 taught us anything, it was that paying up for the premium quarterbacks is over rated. The average quarterback scored 15.5 points on DraftKings and 14.62 points on FanDuel. We saw plenty of lineups at the top of the leaderboards with Carson Wentz and Matthew Stafford, and there were plenty of bust in the higher tier (I’m talking about your Russell Wilson). This week it may be harder to get away from the top tier (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Ryan) but there are always a few options in the middle and lower tier we can consider.

Derek Carr (DK $7,200, FD $8,300)
There are two quarterbacks that I like this week as a pivot from the quarterbacks mentioned above and the first is Derek Carr. Carr is coming off a week 1 performance where the Raiders offense controlled the game against an improved Titans defense and Carr completed over 68% of his passes. This week the Raiders are a huge 14 point favorites (second biggest on the slate) with an implied total of 28.5 at home against the Jets. The Jets have among one of the worst defenses in the league and last year allowed 30 passing touchdowns, which ranked in the bottom 10 in the league. The Jets also have a funnel defense which could force the Raiders to more passing situations with the Jets ability to limit the run game.

Russell Wilson (DK $6,800, FD $8,100)
Similar to Carr, Wilson comes into week 2 with an implied total of 28 points at home against a 49ers team that also allowed 30 passing touchdowns last year. The 49ers front seven is much improved from last season but could be limited depending on the status of rookie linebacker Reuben Foster. In week 1 the Seahawks had a 60-40 pass to run ratio, and Pete Caroll could look to stick with that ratio as Seattle has a lot of question marks in their backfield. Wilson has traditionally performed better at home than on the road, and Wilson is averaging 2.83 DK points at home than on the road. Wilson has averaged 19.7 DK points against the 49ers at home in two meetings against them in his career. These two quarterbacks are likely to be the most popular pivot from the high priced guys.

Carson Palmer (DK $6,000, FD $7,500)
Palmer did not look good against the Lions last week. He completed just 56% of his passes and threw 3 bad interceptions that allowed the Lions to come from behind and steal a victory. The bright side is that Palmer did throw the ball 48 times. The Cardinals also lost their star running back, David Johnson and have a mess in the backfield. Although Johnson is a huge weapon for Palmer out of the backfield, this could force even more passing plays for Palmer. This week Palmer is going up against a Colts defense that just got exposed for a 300 yard game by Jared Goff and a mediocre Rams offense. The Cardinals are an 8.5 road favorite with a score of 25.75. Palmer doesn’t quite check all the boxes you’d like to see for a quarterback, but he’s worth a flyer in tournaments, especially if you stack him with Larry Fitzgerald.

Joe Flacco (DK $5,200, FD $7,000)
Recovering from back injury, Flacco was eased back into live action in week 1. The Ravens protected Flacco by running the ball 71% of their offensive plays, but Flacco has a juicy matchup against the Browns. With an implied total of 23.5 and an 8 point favorite, the Ravens could very well continue to run the ball, but Flacco could be a big part of getting the big league for the Ravens. The Browns cut Joe Haden this preseason and ranked 30th against the pass last season DVOA, so this could be a get well game for Flacco down at $5,200 on Draftkings.

NFL Lineup Daily Fantasy Football - Ty Montgomery - Green Bay Packers - Lineuplab.com

Running Backs:

Last week I was a part of #TeamJamEmIn and rostered both LeVeon Bell and David Johnson. It didn’t work so well last week, and we no longer have that option with DJ out until possibly December. This week there aren’t a lot of backs that fill the bill with situations I like (home favorites with a high team total), but I’ll give you a few that stand out.

Melvin Gordon (DK $7,000, FD $7,600)

Gordon is insanely cheap on FanDuel, but he’s also relatively cheap on DraftkKngs as well. Due to the amount of volume he receives, he could be a steal at that mid-tier price point. Last week, Gordon had a pretty solid showing on the road against a tough Broncos defense. He totaled 23 touches and 79 yards and a touchdown (16.4 FDp & 18.9 DKp). This week Gordon is one of the few running backs that check all the boxes for being a home favorite running back with a decent team total. Gordon is the 6th highest price running back on DraftKings and 10th on Fanduel so he could warrant lower than expected ownership on DK considering he’s $200 more than Kareem Hunt.

Ty Montgomery (DK $5,800, FD $6,500)

If you’re looking for another non-expensive running back look no further than Montgomery. Montgomery is the 15th most expensive back on DK and 20th on FD. When you look at Montgomery’s game log in week 1, the one thing that stands out was his pass catching ability. A former receiver converted to running back, Montgomery caught each of his 4 targets against the Seahawks and turned that into 19.3 DK points. Although Montgomery is a road underdog against, he does have a high team total (25.25) in a game that is projected to be a shootout (53.5 o/u) and faces a Falcons defense that ranked dead last this past season in allowing running backs receptions (109) and yards (870). Montgomery is a good way to get exposure to this game at a very cheap cost.

Kareem Hunt (DK $6,800, FD $7,800)
The rookie burst onto the scene last week with a huge night racking up 248 total yards and 3 TD’s in 23 touches against a much improved Patriots defense. Hunt is likely to be very popular this week as he’s up against the Eagles who rank 22nd in aFPA per 4for4. Hunt is one of those running backs that check all the boxes as he’s a home favorite (-4.5) with an implied total of 26 points. It’s important to note that he’s not as cheap on FanDuel, where he is the 7th highest priced back.

Jacquizz Rodgers (DK $4,400, FD $6,000)
Rodgers will get his first of three starts as the Bucs premier back with Doug Martin suspended for three games this season. Rodgers had over 17 touches per game in spot starts last season and could be in for a heavy workload as a home favorite against the Bears. The Bears do have an improved front 7, so I could see a game script where Dirk Koetter elects to test out Winston’s new weapons on offense. Rodgers is cheap and should get anywhere from 15-18 touches in the game.

Tarik Cohen (DK $4,1000, FD $7,000) – A road underdog that has the game script that will likely feature a pass-catching running back. The Bears showed that Cohen is their clear pass catching back.

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Wide Receivers

In a slate that features four high-powered offenses with great Vegas totals, all of the high-priced receivers are in good spots this week to have a monster year. Antonio Brown is a beneficiary of Big Ben’s home splits and the same goes for Julio Jones.

Julio Jones (DK $9,200, FD $8,800)
Julio is in a ridiculous matchup. We’ve already talked about his high team total and the fact that that game has shootout written all over it. On top of all that, Jones is going up against the Packers defense that ranked 29th in wide receiver fantasy points allowed last season. Even last week when they bottled up Wilson, Baldwin was still able to manage a decent 63 yards on 4 catches. Julio will go up against Damarious Randall who allowed the second-most fantasy points per snap on a per-route basis in week 1 per Mike Clay. Julio and Ryan at home are a dynamic duo and could be in line for a monster game.

Brandin Cooks (DK $8,200, FD $7,900)
Another wide receiver in a high over/under game. Naturally, Cooks would have to make this list. He’s returning to the Superdome to play against his former team #NarrativeStreet. The Patriots were already without Julian Edelman and are more than likely to be without Danny Amendola who has not practiced this week due to a concussion and knee injury sustained in week 1. The Patriots will likely have two healthy receivers who are familiar with the playbook and Cooks has the upside to have a huge game.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK $6,500, FD $6,600)
Fitzgerald is a stud in the first six weeks of the season. Last week he received a team-high 13 targets and caught 6 of them for 74 yards. This week without David Johnson I expect the Cardinals to rely heavily on the passing game. We already talked about how the Colts got torn apart by a mediocre Rams offense. The savvy vet Fitzgerald is almost a sure bet to find the end zone.

Marqise Lee (DK $3,800, FD $5,900)
If you’re looking for value, unfortunately, it may lie on Marqise Lee. Lee could be the benefactor from the injury that causes Allen Robinson to miss the rest of the season. Lee is likely to move into the starting wide receiver spot and will play alongside Allen Hurns who caught under 50% of his targets last season. Lee was held without a catch last week against the Texans, but he should be in line to see more volume this week. Bortles leaves a lot to be desired, but Lee is very cheap and could help you fit in some of these top priced studs.

Adam Thielen (DK $ 5,000, FD $5,800)
Thielen had a breakout game 1 of the 2017 season on Monday night. He racked up 157 yards on 9 catches and out-targeted the Vikings number 1 receiver Diggs. He’s not a big red zone factor for Bradford, but his game script does indicate the Vikings could be playing catch up and throwing a lot as a 5.5 underdog against the Steelers on the road.

NFL Lineup For Daily Fantasy Football - Coby Fleener - Indianapolis Colts

Tight End

Tight End is a position I traditionally like to find value. This week is no different. While there are viable top-tier options that are worthy of rostering, I find that in this week it’s easier for roster construction to find value at tight end.

Coby Fleener (DK $3,100, FD $5,300)
Fleener will be the consensus chalk on DraftKings. As the 15th price tight end, Fleener opens up a lot of salary to afford a higher priced stud. Fleener looks to benefit from the absence of Willie Snead as in the two games without Snead, Fleener has averaged 8.5 targets for an average of 81 yards and a touchdown. The Saints are a home underdog, but Fleener has traditionally done better at home. Fleener is looking to be like the free square that Ertz was last week.

Jared Cook (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
I like Jared Cook as a pivot off Fleener’s high ownership this week. Cook receiver 20% of the target market shares in an Oakland offense that is implied to score the second most points on the slate. He looked like a nice security blanket for Carr down the seems and is an excellent pivot from both Fleener and the popular Carr/Cooper or Carr/Crabtree stack. He’s up against a Jets funnel defense that allowed the third-most touchdowns to tight ends last season.

Gpp consideration
Carles Clay (DK $3,300, FD $5,100)
Another pivot from Fleener, Clay led the Bills with 9 targets in week 1. Clay is going up against the Panthers who allowed the second-most touchdowns last season.

NFL Lineup For Daily Fantasy Football - Oakland Raiders Defense - Lineup Lab Advice NFL

Defense

If week 2 is as crazy as week 1 was we better be ready to hit on defense. Last week we saw 4 different defense score over 20 DK points, and it was almost impossible to land atop the leaderboards without them.

Oakland Raiders (DK $3,500, FD $5,300)
There are a few chalk options this week, starting with the Raiders.They’re at home and face a Jets team that is implied for 15 points (second lowest on the slate). The Raiders are coming off of an impressive performance on the road against a much improved Titans offense. Playing the Raiders with Marshawn Lynch could be a nice way to get exposure to the game on both sides of the ball.

Baltimore Ravens (DK $3,700, FD $4,700)
A better play on FanDuel, the Ravens defense comes into week 2 in a great spot. After holding the Bengals to 0 points in week 1, the Ravens shift their focus to the Browns. Like the Raiders, the Ravens are a double-digit (10) favorite against a poor offense. Although the Brown showed some promise last week against the Steelers, the Ravens are at home and had a 71% run percentage last week, which suggest there could be very limited possessions in this game. The Browns are implied to score 15.5 points (third worst on the slate), so the Ravens could be a nice pivot for teams that want to save the $200 with the Raiders.

Other considerations;
Seattle Seahawks (DK $4,000, FD $5,400)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (DK $3,200, FD $4,500)






Daily Fantasy Football: NFL DFS Week 1 Cash and GPP Picks

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Quarterbacks:

Daily Fantasy Football - Marcus Mariota - Lineuplab.com

Quarterback is the most underpriced position in both Draftkings and Fanduel. The main reason why the quarterback position is wildly underpriced is that there isn’t a large gap between the top scoring QB opposed to the 12th scoring QB. It also has to due in large part with the fact that their scoring is weighted lower than other positions. QB’s receive 4 points per touchdown and 1 point for every 25 yards gained. If you play on Draftkings they give a bonus for quarterbacks that throw over 300 yards. That may alter your decision making because it makes quarterbacks more reliant on touchdowns in FanDuel than in Draftkings. Now that we broke down the scoring discrepancies, let’s take a look at a few quarterbacks you should be targeting for both cash and gpp games.

Cash:

Marcus Mariota (DK $6,700, FD $7,700)
Mariota comes into week 1 as the consensus chalk quarterback. The 6th highest priced QB on DK and 7th highest priced QB on FD, Mariota won’t be heavily owned because of his bargain price. Instead, Mariota will likely be the highest owned QB in cash games because of his favorable Vegas totals. The Titans come into week one as a 3.5 point favorite against the Raiders in a game that features the highest over/under 50.5. This high over/under gives the Titans an implied total of 26.5 points, good enough for second on this slate only behind the Steelers. Quarterbacks with similar Vegas totals have gone on to perform well in the past. Mariota has had the best red zone touchdown efficiency rating since joining the league in 2015. When you add up all that and include that the Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the league last season, you can see why Mariota is expected to be the highest owned quarterback.

GPP:

Russell Wilson (DK $ 6,900, FD $8,000)
After a let down 2016 season, Wilson finds himself looking to hit the refresh button. His fantasy production last season took a dip because he only rushed for 259 yards on the season with one rushing touchdown. It’s been heavily reported that Wilson changed his workout routine over the offseason and is looking to recapture his 2015 form this season. Well, week 1 is a nice opportunity for Wilson to put his new offseason regime to the test against the Packers. The Packers allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game last season and did hardly anything to improve their secondary in the offseason. This game opened up with an over/under just under 50 but has since increased to 51, giving this game the highest over/under on the slate. The Seahawks are on road underdogs, and that generally isn’t a recipe for success, but the Packers secondary is bad enough for you to consider taking a flier on Wilson in tournaments.

Plays worth considering in Cash & GPP:

Matt Ryan (DK $6,900, FD $8,500) – The Falcons are tied for 1st on the slate for implied team points with 27.5. Matt Ryan is going up against a Bears defense that is significantly improved in the front seven and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could look to air it out in their first game to get Falcon’s fans over their 28-3 blown Super Bowl win. However, Ryan does come with some red flags as he is playing on the road and there truly is no way of telling how the offense will function without Kyle Shanahan.

Ben Roethlisberger ($DK 7,300, FD $8,200) – Big Ben comes in with the same implied team total as the Falcons. He’s playing an abysmal Browns team and is an 8.5 point favorite. Ben will have his full assortment of weapons to his use with the return of LeVeon Bell and Martavis Bryant. The concern here is Ben’s home and road splits.

Running Backs

Daily Fantasy Football - Carlos Hyde - San Francisco 49ers

The running back position is almost always dominated by Le’Veon Bell (DK $9,800, FD $9,300) and David Johnson (DK $9,400, FD $9,400). This week is no different. Both are elite plays and expect to be the highest owned backs in this slate. Now the question is if you can play both of them. The answer is yes. There’s certainly enough value in other positions that allow you to make your lineup construction with these two elite backs. But if you have to choose one over the other I like Johnson over Bell because of the simple fact that the game has a closer spread and David Johnson plays for a Cardinal team that has fewer mouths to feed than the Steelers.

Chalk

Todd Gurley (DK $6,000, FD $7,300)
If you’re looking for a chalk alternative from the two safe, elite backs look no further than Todd Gurley. More of a value on Draftkings than Fanduel, Gurley comes into week 1 in an elite spot. The Rams are currently home favorite against the Andrew Luck-less Colts and have seen the Vegas line shift them from 3 point underdogs to 4 point favorites. With a poor offensive line and Jeff Fisher calling the plays last season, Gurley had a letdown year after being selected as the number 1 RB in most season-long drafts last season. This year the Rams have made some moves to improve their offensive line and also brought in Sean McVay to jumpstart their offense. Gurley should have an ample amount of opportunities to get to the 100 yard DK bonus and could even fall into the endzone.

GPP

Carlos Hyde (DK $4,600, FD $6,800)
If you’re looking for a cheap running back in your roster construction, Carlos Hyde is your answer. With Joe William landing on the IR and Tim Hightower being a surprise cut out of the 49ers camp, Hyde only has to share targets with undrafted rookie Matt Breida. Hyde should be a lock for 25 touches with Kyle Shanahan calling the plays now and his price on both sites could help open up salary in other roster spots.

 

Wide Receivers

Daily Fantasy Football - Amari Cooper - Lineuplab.com

Depending on lineup construction, wide receiver could be where you really differentiate yourself from the field. The top 3 studs are all in strong positions. Antonio Brown (DK $ 8,800, FD $9,100), Julio Jones (DK $8,500, FD $9,000), and AJ Green (DK $8,000, FD $ 8,400) are all in spots where we can see them have a big game. But let’s take an audible into some plays that people may be overlooking

Doug Baldwin (DK $6,700, FD $7,500)
I mentioned how the Seahawks passing offense was in a good spot against the Packers. The game flow looks to be in Baldwin’s favor as the Packers had the worst secondary in the league last season, and quite frankly their cornerbacks don’t scare any passing attack. Baldwin will face either Quinten Rollins, Davon House, or Damarious Randall neither was graded higher than top 50 of Pro Football Focus Cornerback Rankings.

Kendall Wright (DK $3,200, FD $5,200)
Kendall Wright looks poised to take advantage of a Bears receiving corp that is extremely depleted after losing Cameron Meredith for the season. Although Wright is not listed as the number two receiver behind Kevin White, Wright will be on the field in three wide receiver sets. That may sound concerning, but during preseason the first-team Bears offense ran three wide receiver sets 14 out of their 15 plays, so Wright is a sneaky cheap option to get some much volume. Wright was signed by the Bears after his previous work with offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. Under Loggains, Wright saw and an average of 8.7 targets per game back in 2013. In a game that the Bears are heavy underdogs against the Falcons, the offense could be throwing the ball more than 40 times opening up cheap targets for Wright to snag.

Amari Cooper (DK $7,200, FD $7,600)
Amari Cooper should be another popular play. Playing in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, Cooper is going to have an ample of opportunities to bring in targets. The Titans last season ranked in the bottom of the league in points per game allowed to wide receiver, and with a duel of Cooper and Crabtree, the Raiders passing game could be in store for a big game.

Larry Fitzgerald (DK $5,900, FD $6,400)
Fitz is a veteran that could be heavily owned in this first few weeks. The one thing about the vet is that he has some drastic splits from the first half of the season and the second. Fitzgerald has averaged 13.9 points in the first 6 games of the season compared to 11.3 games in the second half. The Cardinals passing offense faces the Lions who were 32nd in DVOA.

** Fanduel only ** Terrelle Pryor (FD $6,200) is extremely underpriced in Fanduel. Although his preseason action with Kirk Cousins left a lot to be desired, Pryor should see a massive target amount.

Tight End

Daily Fantasy Football - Zach Ertz - Philadelphia Eagles

Drafting a tight end in DFS is often dependent on the site you play. In Draftkings touchdowns become less important than targets, while on Fanduel touchdowns valued higher than targets/receptions.

Chalk

Draftkings – Zach Ertz (DK $4,300, FD $6,100)
Ertz is the uber chalk on Draftkings. With the Eagles getting rid of Jordan Matthews and Alshon Jeffery expecting to be shadowed by Josh Norman, Ertz becomes the immediate beneficiary of targets from Carson Wentz. Ertz doesn’t have the touchdown upside that others like Jared Cook or Tyler Eifert may have, but his price and volume make him a nice cash play on Draftkings.

Fanduel – Tyler Eifert (DK $4,600, FD $6,100)
Eifert is an example of how site determines what would be the better player. With Green sucking up most of the targets, Eifert is left with minimal targets. Fortunately for Eifert, he scored on over 40% of his targets last season. Although that number is likely to regress, Eifert is at a good price for such a volatile position.

Defense

Daily Fantasy Football - Los Angeles Rams - Lineuplab.com

Los Angeles Rams (DK $3,200, FD $4,600)
The Rams’ defense is in a good spot as a 4 point home favorite against a team that doesn’t have their starting quarterback. The Colts could very much be a train wreck come Sunday, and although the Rams will likely be without their All-Pro Aaron Donald, their defense should be able to handle Scott Tolzien and Frank Gore.

Houston Texans (DK $3,800, FD 5,100)
The Texans are the chalkiest defense with the highest upside. Aside from the fact that they are with the most talented defense in a prime matchup, they get to face Blake Bortles. Bortles looked dreadful this preseason and last year ranked in the bottom-10 in interception rate (3.7%). They are the most expensive defensive option out of the other chalk defense.

 

 

Fantasy Football 101: Draft Picks Strategies and Running Back Concerns

by Cesar Becerra 0 Comments

Last week I wrote up a report on how to approach your fantasy draft before your draft day. Whether this is your first ever fantasy football draft or your tenth, that guide will help you craft a team that will put you in a good position to win your league with the proper draft pick strategies.

Now, being that it is “National Draft Week,” I’ll look into providing you with a strategy for wherever you may be picking, either 1-12 through the first five rounds in this installment of Fantasy Football 101. A lot can be pre-decided if you know where you are picking in your fantasy draft, but the later picks in the draft should generate some discussion.

Generally, a top 5 pick guarantees you a top tier running back to build your team around. Unfortunately, that’s not the case this season. This season the “top tier” running backs ranked 3 through 12 all have question marks. That leaves us with two consensus running backs, Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson. Those two will be the first two players off the board in 98% of leagues. There’s no justification needed to draft either of these guys in the first round because they’re so far and beyond better than the next best running back. I’m going to point out some concerns over the next running backs with their average draft position (ADP) within the first two rounds.

LeSean McCoy - Buffalo Bills - draft pick strategies

LeSean McCoy – Ever since the news about the suspension of Ezekiel Elliott, McCoy has moved up to the number three ranked running back. While McCoy provides lots of upside for the number three ranked back, he has some concerns heading into the 2017 season. McCoy plays for the dumpster fire that is the Buffalo Bills. The Bills offense will be managed by former Denver Broncos Coordinator, Rick Dennison. Dennison ranked in the middle of the pack in run-pass percentage last season with the Broncos, which is surprising considering they had a subpar quarterback for most of the season. It will be interesting to see how much Dennison decides to utilize McCoy in his offense that no longer has a receiver that could stretch the field. That is because the Bills also just traded away their number one receiver and cornerback, so it’s anyone’s guess what direction this team is heading and if they even are looking to win this season. The Bills could find themselves out of several games early and often this season, and that doesn’t bode well for McCoy’s touch numbers.

Verdict: McCoy is a talented back that has finished in the top three of running back scoring in three of the last four seasons. His talent isn’t questioned, it’s the team that surrounds him that makes me skeptical of using a top 3 or even 5 pick on him with the direction of the organization. I’d be willing to pick him as early as 8th overall.

Melvin Gordon – Like McCoy, Melvin Gordon provides a good deal of upside, which is why I have him ranked as my number four running back. He had a nice bounce back season after a terrible rookie year in 2015. With Anthony Lynn as the new head coach, Gordon could be a lock to have his first 1,000-yard season. The biggest flaws with Melvin Gordon is his offensive line. Pro Football Focus ranked the Los Angeles Chargers as the 21st ranked offensive line in the league. The Chargers did their best to upgrade their offensive line by adding Russell Okung and Dan Feeney but whether or not they have a good year remains to be seen. Gordon is also coming off of a knee injury that cut his season short last season. He didn’t have surgery in the offseason, so that’s a good sign, but owners who are investing a top 10 pick would want to keep an eye on that knee this preseason.

Verdict: Gordon plays for a Charger offense that has plenty of weapons to keep the defense honest, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon has a breakout season. He relied heavily on touchdowns last season so if his TD numbers don’t translate into this season he could see a drop in points. There’s no other running back on the Chargers roster that will take away from Gordon’s reps, and Anthony Lynn has proven to feed his running backs the ball with 14 consecutive 1,000-yard rushers in his career. I can justify taking Gordon as the 10th pick.

Devonta Freeman - draft pick strategies - Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman – Freeman has been a pleasant surprise over the past two seasons. He’s a dual threat running back that plays for the most dangerous offense in the NFL. However, there are reasons to be wary of drafting him in the top ten. Freeman’s touches last year were down from his 2015 breakout season. Last year Freeman had 58 fewer touches than he did in 2015, that is due in large part to Tevin Coleman. Also, Atlanta lost their offensive guru Kyle Shanahan and replaced him with Steve Sarkisian. There’s no telling how Sarkisian will run this high powered offense, but that could mean that Freeman loses some pass catching opportunities, which hurts his value.

Verdict: Freeman is the more talented back out of the two in Atlanta. He received most of the goal line work last season and didn’t have to worry about eight men in the box with Matt Ryan under center. Freeman is a borderline top 12 pick in my opinion as the wide receivers available at the end of the first round are too consistent to pass up. He’s missed time this preseason due to concussion concerns so that would be a situation to monitor moving forward.

DeMarco Murray – Murray had a nice bounce back season last year after an atrocious season with the Eagles. Despite being 29, he didn’t falter with production, totaling over 1,500 total yards last season. The concern here is with his role in the team moving forward. We saw rookie running back Derrick Henry steal some of his touches last year, and he was producing with the opportunities. Henry had 123 touches and scored five times last season. Being that it’s Henry’s second year in the offense, you can expect to see him eat into Murray’s production particularly in the second half of the season. Aside from Henry’s presence, the Titans also revamped their passing game by drafting Corey Davis and signing Eric Decker in free agency. Mariota has plenty of offensive weapons now with Davis, Decker, Delanie Walker, and Rishard Matthews, so it’s fair to question Murray’s workload this season.

Verdict: Murray will still be the featured back in this backfield, but barring injury or a breakout season by Henry who knows what his workload could look like. The Titans like to run the ball, but with a revamped passing game perhaps the offense becomes more balanced this season. Nonetheless, Murray is still a solid option if you’re drafting at the later part of your draft. I see Murray as a top 14 pick in non-PPR format.

draft pick strategies - Ezekiel Elliott - Dallas Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott – This is pretty clear, the suspension really killed his ADP. After being hit with a six-game suspension, Elliott went from number 3 overall to a borderline second rounder, in my opinion. There’s no doubt about Elliott’s talent and supporting cast, but the fact that he’s going to miss half of the fantasy season puts teams who draft him in a difficult spot.

Verdict: Elliott was one of the few running backs that could look to improve off of a stellar rookie season. The suspension is certainly something that should weigh down his value, but if you do decide to take him, make sure you’re drafting Darren McFadden as a handcuff in the later rounds. There are too many solid wide receivers to justify taking Elliott in the first or even early second round. I see Elliot drafted within the top 24 picks, but even that could be a reach. There’s no doubt that he has the talent to be a top 5 back. But risking half of the fantasy season on one player is a risk too steep for me to get over. Elliott would need to fall dramatically for me to own him this season.

These next few guys I’m going to bunch into one category because they all fall under the same tree.

Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Isaiah Crowell – All these running backs round out the top 12 of the running back position. What do all these backs have in common? They all play for bad teams. Every one of these running backs plays for a team that has quarterback questions. This leads to more men in the box and less running lanes. It also will be difficult for running backs to get consistent touches on a weekly basis when their team projected always to be trailing. It isn’t as if these running backs are multi dimensional. For the exception of Gurley and Crowell, none of these backs caught more than 40 passes last season so, for the most part, they are dependent on rushing yards and touchdowns.

Verdict: We know that each of these running backs possesses high upside. We saw Ajayi’s 200-yard weeks, Howard and Crowell had nice seasons last year for terrible teams, Gurley was an absolute stud two years ago, and Fournette is considered the best running back out of this rookie class. They just aren’t as safe as the wide receivers available in their draft range.

If I’d have to go with two of these backs, I’d say my favorite would be Gurley and Crowell. Gurley had a terrible follow-up to his rookie season, but now with new head coach Sean McVay and an upgraded offensive line, it’ll be interesting to see how McVay incorporates Gurley into the offense. The Rams offense added a few offensive weapons in Cooper Kupp and Sammy Watkins so if Jared Goff can make a leap perhaps Gurley can have another big season. Isaiah Crowell had a sneaky good season last year, which is why I like him. I’ve seen Crowell fall on draft boards because he plays for the Browns but here’s the thing. The Browns actually come into the season with the number 2 ranked offensive line according to PFF.com. Although the Browns are likely to be terrible yet again, Crowell has established himself as the feature back in Cleveland over Duke Johnson and should score the majority of the points that Clevland scores this season.

Recap:

The Running Back position is the most important position in fantasy football. This is a position where it’s difficult to find production when you miss on top players. This year is not easy just jamming in the top running back in your first two picks. Aside from the creme of the crop, the other top running backs have some issues that you should at least consider before investing your first pick on one of them. When you compare that to the depth of top wide receiver position, it’s tough to justify forcing a running back to your team in the early rounds. It really depends on where you draft and who’s available, so I’ll show you how I’d approach a draft based on the different draft slots available.

Live Draft

The picks below were taken from a draft that I participated in earlier this week where I picked 7th. I’ll add some input on each team’s picks through the first five rounds.

Team 1

1.01 – Le’Veon Bell (David Johnson)

2.12 – Dez Bryant

3.01 – Demaryius Thomas

4.12 – Larry Fitzgerald

5.01 -Jordan Reed

What sticks out to me is Bell over Johnson, but there really is no right or wrong answer here. Picking at the top of the draft is always difficult to find a solid RB 2. I can understand how this team went WR in three consecutive picks.

Team 2

1.02 – David Johnson

2.11 – Doug Baldwin

3.02 – Rob Gronkowski

4.11 – Danny Woodhead

5.02 – Jarvis Landry

Solid start. Again this shows that when you pick early in the draft, it’s hard to find a decent RB 2 in the first three rounds. I think this team made out okay by drafting Woodhead in the fourth round.

Team 3

1.03 – Antonio Brown (Julio Jones)

2.10 – Leonard Fournette

3.03 – DeAndre Hopkins

4.10 – Frank Gore

5.03 – Delanie Walker

This team was a prime example of drafting a player based on the need to fill every starting spot right away. Drafting Walker was a reach if I’ve ever seen one. Walker has an ADP of going in the 8th round and the fact that he got taken in the 5th shows this team panicked when they saw the TE position thinning out and drafted by need, not by value. Also, I can’t see drafting Hopkins over Pryor or Crowell, but maybe this team knows something I don’t.

Team 4

1.04 – Mike Evans  (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)

2.09 – Ezekiel Elliott (Dez Bryant)

3.04 – Terrelle Pryor

4.09 – Bilal Powell

5.04 – Mark Ingram

This team took the chance to draft Elliott. Elliott was drafted in the late second round, which is right around where I’d expect him to go. My issue with this is that he didn’t do that great of a job covering his grounds by drafting Ingram and Powell, both are backs that split time and don’t have lots of upside. Ingram? Maybe but that’s only at the end of the season if Peterson gets injured.

Team 5

1.05 – LeSean McCoy (Julio Jones or Odell Beckham Jr.)

2.08 – Brandin Cooks (Dez Bryant)

3.05 – Marshawn Lynch

4.08 – Golden Tate

5.05 – Devante Adams

Out of the first five teams, this is the team to beat right now. One thing that this team did that’s worth noting is that they skipped over three pretty good wide receivers (Jones, OBJ, & Green). This team was set on running back early and drafted McCoy. In this case, it worked out because of how low the receivers dropped, and the team was able to draft a good WR in the second round. Not a bad strategy when you consider how deep WR is.

Team 6

1.06 – Julio Jones

2.07 – Michael Thomas

3.06 – Isaiah Crowell

4.07 – Alshon Jeffery

5.06 – Greg Olsen

Solid start. Would be interesting to see where this team goes for their second running back slot.

Team 7 – My team

1.07 – Odell Beckham Jr.

2.06 – Todd Gurley

3.07 – Christian McCaffrey

4.06 – Aaron Rodgers

5.07 – Emmanuel Sanders

First off, I was thrilled that OBJ fell this far in the draft. This was a no brainer for me, and I still can’t fathom how this happened. The one thing I did here that I RARELY do is I drafted a QB. But to me drafting Rodgers in the fourth round was too good of a value to pass up. The decision was between Rodgers and Tate, and I felt that Rodgers production was far and away better than the other QBs than Tate was with the remaining WR. Hence the Sanders pick that followed.

Team 8

1.08 – Devonta Freeman (Melvin Gordon)

2.05 – Amari Cooper

3.08 – Dalvin Cook

4.05 – Martavis Bryant

5.08 – Julian Edelman

I felt Bryant was a reach in the early fourth round, only because you don’t know what role he’ll play with this offense that already has so many mouths to feed.

Team 9

1.09 – A.J. Green

2.04 – Lamar Miller (Dez Bryant or Todd Gurley)

3.09 – Carlos Hyde

4.04 – Kelvin Benjamin (Alshon Jeffery or Aaron Rodgers)

5.09 – Allen Robinson

This team has a solid balance of players who are going to see a lot of volume. I have Gurley and Bryant ranked over Miller, but I can understand why he decided to go with Miller over those two.

Team 10

1.10 – Melvin Gordon

2.03 – T. Y. Hilton

3.10 – Michael Crabtree

4.03 – Doug Martin (Alshon Jeffery)

5.10 – Kareem Hunt

My biggest issue here is drafting Hilton this early. With Luck’s timetable up in the air, you don’t know what type of production you’re going to get from Hilton Scott Tolzien behind center. Also, Doug Martin is suspended for the first four games.

Team 11

1.11 – Jordy Nelson

2.02 – DeMarco Murray

3.11 – Tom Brady

4.02 – Travis Kelce

5.11 – Jamison Crowder

This team jumped the gun on Tom Brady and Travis Kelce. Certainly two of the top players in their position but this puts the team under pressure to have a strong back end of the draft at essential positions.

Team 12 

1.12 – Jordan Howard

2.01 – Jay Ajayi

3.12 – Ty Montgomery

4.01 – Keenan Allen

5.12 – Tyreek Hill

The triple running backs method. It didn’t seem to hurt this team as they were able to get some wideouts with high upside. Ironically I think the wideouts are safer than the running backs, though.