bpender

Chris Durell

We have another busy day in daily fantasy baseball this Wednesday. The slate is split down the middle with eight early games and seven main slate games starting at 7:05 pm et tonight. It is going to be an easy day to go ahead and pay up for bats as there are few safe options at pitcher. With all the weather concerns causing issues last night, the forecast looks clear as of now so I am giving an all systems go for the day but be sure to check all weather prior to lineup lock. Let’s take a look at a few viable pitching and stacking options for today. 

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started with the premium lineup optimizer here!

PITCHERS

Justin Verlander FD 9600 DK 11000
Opponent – MIN (Santana)
Park – @DET
FD – 34.55 DK – 22.82

Verlander comes in as the top option on the early slate today vs. the Twins. He has been hot in July limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in three straight starts while striking out 23 batters. The Twins come in ranked 21st in wOBA(.309)  vs. right handed pitching while striking out 21.7% of the time and hold the majors worst road record at 14-32. Look for Verlander to continue his streak of great pitching making him a safe option in all formats.

Wei-Yin Chen FD 8400 DK 6800
Opponent – PHI (Young)
Park – @PHI
FD – 29.85 DK – 20.02

Chen is a much better second pitcher option on DraftKings at $6.8K but playable as a GPP play on both sites tonight. As of now the Marlins are slight favorites(-133) on the road while the Phillies are projected to score under four runs tonight. The Phillies also rank dead last in wOBA(.296) and wRC+(64) vs. left handed pitching while striking out 23.9% of the time. There is enough going on in Chen’s favor to consider rostering him tonight in GPP’s. Good luck!

STACKING OPTIONS

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)
Park – Chase Field

The obvious choice is to stack Coors Field today, especially the Rays who hit left handed pitching quite well. The Jays will be quite chalky as well but I feel they are in a much better spot on Wednesday. They rank 12th in wOBA vs. left handed pitching for the season and 1st over the last two seasons combined. They will face Patrick Corbin today who has struggled in 2016 after two fairly impressive season in 2015 and 2014. His strikeout rate(6.73 K/9) has dropped considerably while the hard contact rate(38.8%) has jumped up over 7%. All Jays hitters are in play even left handed Michael Saunders who has hit lefties well; and Corbin has actually struggled more against left handed hitters giving up over 46% hard contact. I’ll be stacking me some jays tonight in the lineup optimizer.

Boston Red Sox vs. Matt Cain (Giants)
Park – Fenway Park

Drew Pomeranz will be making his debut with the Red Sox and should get lots of run support tonight. They lead the league in total runs scored(501) and rank 1st in wOBA(.355) and wRC+(118) vs. right handed pitching so far this season. Matt Cain will make his return after a month on the disabled list and will get an awful park shift in Fenway Park as he tries to find signs of life in his right arm. He struggles to miss bats with a 90 mph fastball which has resulted in a below average 8% swing strike rate. Look for the Red Sox to get to him early and tax the Giants bullpen in game two of the series. All of this makes BOS a great stacking contender in the lab’s optimizer tonight.

Nick Rodriguez … & some Coors ranting from Blake Pender

We have a full 15-game slate on our hands tonight and considering the struggling aces, Coors, and other stacking options today- this should make for an interesting day of baseball. Let’s dive in!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started with the premium lineup optimizer here!

Pitching Targets

Jake Arrieta FD 10600 DK 12100
Opponent – NYM (Syndergaard) Park – @CHC
FD – 36.98 DK – 24.35

Arrieta has looked like doo doo the last 3 starts, but it may be time to buy low. But he’s expensive you say? Compared to his average salary this is still a good play. We are definitely looking for him to bounce back tonight and expect his ownership wont be as high as he typically is. Look at what Jon Lester did last night. He was struggling before the break and started the second half with a [bang]. Remember, there are 3 seasons in baseball. Pre All-Star, Post All-Star, and Postseason.

He will be pitching at Wrigley where he owns a 1.65 ERA, 1.81 FIP and 23.0 K-BB%. He is a completely different animal at home and look for him to take advantage of a Mets’ squad thats in the bottom half of the rankings against right-handed pitchers. The matchup is there for him — now it’s time for him to prove to us why he is "one of the top pitchers in the game."

Danny Salazar FD 10300 DK 11300
Opponent – KC (Young) Park – @KC
FD – 33.18 DK – 22.1

If you’re looking for a guy with upside tonight, Danny Salazar is your guy. He owns a 27.6 K% to go along with a 82.6 LOB%. He is a tournament only play for me as he can have some control issues (10.8 BB%), but you can’t deny his upside. He will be going up against the Royals, whose offense isn’t as good as you may think. They own a .309 wOBA (20th in MLB) 90 wRC+ (22nd in MLB) and .131 ISO (29th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers. The matchup is there for him and will be pitching in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, so go ahead and do your thing, Mr. Salazar!

Cash Option
Looking for a cash-game play for tonight? Then Carlos Martinez may be your guy. Our system loves him!

Stack Targets

Lets start with the obvious. Coors is in play, and Tampa Bay and Colorado are projected by Vegas at the top of the list with 11 runs. Nothing new. The pitchers: Tyler Chatwood is an average guy, with almost 100 IP’s logged and is pretty much down the middle regarding WHIP, xFIP, wOBA, but one of the lowest K/9’s on the day (5th worst at 5.5). Snell’s also very much down the middle but sports a 1.58 WHIP over his 32 innings in the majors. However, during his last 300 IP’s in the minors, he’s maintained a 1.0-ish WHIP and fanned batters at an impressive rate… roughly 11/K9. Yes this is in the minors and spans A-AAA, but his last 100 IPs in AAA were low 12’s K/9.

To further complicate things, wind is blowing in & to the right at double digits at game start, and then slowing down and moving sideways as the game continues. Rain chances are around 15%-20%. But it is still a bit early to be worrying about wind and rain at Coors. Keep an eye on it with our MLB weather page here.

In the end, I’m just not excited about Coors. Hell the degenerate in me just wants to play Snell in a single lineup tonight so I can screenshot it. Have fun with your Coors-ing.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Zack Godley (MIN)
Chase Field

The Blue Jays will be playing at "Baby Coors" (Chase Field) and will be going up against right-hander, Zack Godley. You gotta love it! Godley has a lot of control issues (10.3 BB%) to go along with a 1.50 WHIP.

The Jays’ are one of the top teams when it comes to facing right-handed hitters. They own a .334 wOBA (6th in MLB) 106 wRC+ (6th in MLB) and .192 ISO (4th in MLB). Yes they are expensive, but they have one of the best offenses in the league and will be going up against a guy with an ERA over five.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kyle Loshe (TEX)
Angel Stadium

Let’s be honest: Kyle Lohse isn’t the same pitcher he once was, so I’m going to be picking on him today. Since, 2014, Loshe owns a 4.63 ERA, 4.51 FIP and 34.2% hard contact rate. He’s 37 years old; and his velocity is down, so look for Mike Trout and company to take advantage.

Not only do the Angels draw a favorable matchup, but they are also coming into this contest red-hot. They own a .325 wOBA (8th in MLB) and .106 wRC+ (7th in MLB) in their last 14 contests. I just see the Angels devouring Loshe tonight and this is an excellent late-night stack.

Nick Rodriguez

I hope everyone enjoyed their weekend! We have an 11-game slate on our hands today and it’s going to be a wild one. We have Fernandez and Sale on the mound today – and a game in… Denver. I’ll be targeting my top GPP stacks and pitchers in a more contrarian manner on today’s slate, so lets get right to it!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started with the premium lineup optimizer here!

Pitching Targets

Jon Lester FD 9900 DK 6900
Opponent – NYM (Matz) Park – @CHC
FD – 38.58 DK – 25.45

I know he’s had it rough in his last two outings allowing 13 runs, but look for him to turn things around. He’s had the All-Star break to regroup, so look for him to start the second half with a [bang]. He owns a 1.08 WHIP, 24.4 K% and 3.01 ERA, so don’t be fooled by his last two starts. He is one of the best pitchers in today’s game and will be low-owned in today’s contests, with Fernandez and Sale on the mound, which is perfect for tournaments! The Mets own a 24.3 K% against left-handed pitchers (2nd in MLB), so don’t be surprised if he scores the most fantasy points tonight. A smart lock into the Fanduel optimizer for some of your exposure.

Mike Fiers FD 9000 DK 9900

Opponent – OAK (Graveman) Park – @OAK

FD – 31.78 DK – 21.04

^ [Edit: Wrong Face!] But we still like the spot he’s in. He will be taking his talents to the Oakland Coliseum, which is one of the friendliest parks for pitchers. Not only does he have that in his favor, but he will be going up against a team struggling against right-handed pitchers. They own a .299 wOBA (28th in MLB) and .142 ISO (26th in MLB). The matchup is a thing of beauty in this contest, but the only problem is his upside. Fiers isn’t a guy that fans a lot of hitters and the A’s SO rate leaves some to be desired, so his ceiling isn’t as high as you’d like it to be. But, I do like his chances to pick up the win and deliver a quality start, so I’ll go ahead and user him in the lineup optimizer for two-pitcher sites.

**Stack Targets**

Detroit Tigers vs.Ricky Nolasco (MIN)

The Tigers will be going up against right-hander, Ricky Nolasco. He isn’t a guy that gives up a ton of homers (1.27 HR/9), but does give up a ton of runs. He owns an ERA just over five to go along with a 4.34 xFIP. The other reason why I love the Tigers in the matchup is because Nolasco is a guy that pitches to contact. He owns an 18.4 K% and going up against a Tigers’ ballclub that owns a .328 wOBA (9th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers won’t help his cause. I know everyone will be attacking Coors, but this is definitely a nice pivot and team to seriously consider stacking in the optimizer.

Houston Astros vs Kendall Graveman (OAK)

Looking for a low-owned or late-night stack? Then look no further than the Houston Astros. They will be going up against right-handed pitcher, Kendall Graveman, who owns a 4.37 ERA to go along with a 4.60 xFIP. He has struggled this season and going up against the Astros certainly won’t help. Sure, he delivered a quality start his last time AND against this Astros’ squad, but the Astros know him well (faced him last time and same division), and we think this is just too perfectly contrarian to pass up. so look for them to put on a show.

Austyn Varney

Welcome to Saturday baseball! It was great to see some baseball yesterday after the 4 day all-star break, which seemed like it lasted a year. We have a split slate day with a total of 15 games spread from 2:30 to 9:00. There are some pitchers in interesting spots as well as some offenses in spots to put up some runs. Lets get into some pitchers and stacks to consider!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

Pitching Targets

Jason Hammel FD 8400 DK 0
Opponent – TEX (Darvish) Park – @CHC
FD – 31.19 DK – 20.27

Let me put a disclaimer out there first, the pitching options on the early slate are terrible and there is absolutely nobody that I am fully comfortable with. That being said, Hammel is going to be the guy I ride with in both cash games and tournaments. While the Rangers are a good offense, we saw what could happen yesterday and I would not be surprised to see that again. Hammel has dominated right handers with a .246 wOBA that is backed up by strong peripherals across the board. However, it is exactly the opposite with lefties as Hammel has given up a .369 wOBA, albeit is definitely inflated by a nearly 20% HR/FB rate. While that does worry me to a point, everyone on this slate has some serious issues. If Hammel is able to wiggle around the lefties, the strikeouts should be there and the Cubs are always able to put up a few runs, even against Yu Darvish. As for Darvish, I do think he is a somewhat interesting tournament option. There is definitely some strikeout upside with a Cubs team that can strikeout against righties at a huge clip. As I said, be careful with this early slate.

Matt Shoemaker FD 8100 DK 7700
Opponent – CHW (Shields) Park – @LAA
FD – 32.07 DK – 21.2

The main slate or "late" slate is a complete different story as it offers a few very viable options at pitcher, with Matt Shoemaker definitely making the list. While Shoemaker has definitely came back down to earth, he is still sporting some very good numbers and peripheral stats to back them up. With a 3.81 xFIP across the board and a combined hard contact rate sitting below 32%, I don’t think there is anything to worry about here with Shoemaker. The Angels will be taking on a Chicago White Sox team that strikes out 21% of the time against righties and hits the ball hard only 28% of the time. With this game being played in an extreme pitcher park, Shoemaker makes for a tremendous tournament option. As for cash games, I would look at a guy like Jeff Samardzija or Adam Wainwright.

Stack Targets

Boston Red Sox vs. C.C. Sabathia (Yankees)
Park – Yankees Stadium

Some may point to Sabathia and say he is a much improved pitcher from last year, and those people aren’t necessarily wrong. However, that is not saying too much as he was one of the worst left handed pitchers in the league. With this game currently sitting at a 9.5 over/under, we can definitely expect some bats to get a hold of some balls in the hitter friendly Yankees stadium, especially with it being daytime and temperatures rising. In 2016, Sabathia has exhibited an xFIP over 4.00 and a very low BABIP, which suggests some serious regression. My favorite 5 Red Sox are going to be Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, in that order. If you want to be sneaky, I would target someone like Aaron Hill or Jackie Bradley Jr. that should be tremendously lower owned than the rest of these guys, and have the ability to hit one out to the short porch in right field. Throw them into our lineup optimizer and stack them solo, lock these guys in, or try double stacking them with the next team:

Milwaukee Brewers vs. John Lamb (Reds)
Park – Great American ballpark

John Lamb in the Great American "Smallpark"? Yes please. I will have A TON of Brewers tonight and I am willing to go down with the ship, well hopefully not. Not only is Lamb bad, but this ballpark magnifies all of his biggest weaknesses, which are giving up deep fly balls to the power alleys. Against righties dating back to 2015, Lamb has sported a horrible .386 wOBA and a 34.2% hard contact rate that is backed up by all of the necessary peripherals. While the Brewers aren’t known as a prolific or great offense, they definitely have a considerable amount of upside with a bunch of power and speed spread throughout the order. This is looking like a great team to stack in both our fanduel or lineup optimizer. My favorite 5 Brew Crew bats are going to be Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, Jonathan Lucroy, Jonathan Villar and Will Middlebrooks, in that order. In addition, the Reds bullpen is by far the worst in the league and the brewers are guaranteed 9 innings of hitting. Get some exposure and throw these guy into optimizer.

Chris Durell

After back to back slates with little to no pitching options, we are gifted with a terrific slate on Friday. There are at least five elite aces on the mound in some pretty favorable matchups with a nice mix of mid to lower tier options to help get in some high dollar stacks tonight. Yes, I am talking about you Coors Field and your 10+ run totals night after night. If you are paying up for the aces tonight it may be wise to go contrarian and fade Coors in GPP’s and stack some other teams in great situations(Astros/Rangers/Jays/Red Sox). For cash games it is always worth fitting one or two of the Coors bats in your lineup.

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

Jose Fernandez FD 11700 DK 13400
Opponent – CIN (Straily) Park – @MIA
FD – 46.4 DK – 30.31

Fernandez comes into any matchup huge strikeout potential as he leads the league with an outstanding 13.10 K/9 rate. He leads with a 95 mph fastball that he throw 54% of the time producing a 14.9% swing strike rate. He is in a great spot on Friday night in a matchup vs. the Reds who rank 27th in wOBA(.297) and 29th in wRC+(70) vs. right handed pitching while striking out 22.3% of the time. Fernandez has also been very impressive at home with a 1.72 ERA while limiting opponents to a .220 wOBA.

Scott Kazmir FD 8800 DK 9100
Opponent – SD (Cashner) Park – @LAD
FD – 34.82 DK – 22.97

If you are looking to roster an ace like Fernandez on DraftKings with some viable bats you are going to need a value pitcher in the second slot. Kazmir fits the bill tonight as the Dodgers are the third biggest favorite(-200) behind the Marlins and White Sox. Kazmir possesses strikeout upside(9.6 K/9) and is coming off one of his best start of the season where he struck out 10 while walking none vs. the Rockies in six innings of three hit shutout ball. The matchup isn’t elite by any means as the Padres are actually pretty good against lefties(6th in wOBA) but they strikeout 23.7% of the time.

STACKS
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Mike Pelfrey (Tigers)
Park – Rogers Centre

Your guess is as good as mine why the Tigers keep rolling Pelfrey out every five days. He’s sporting a 5.05 xFIP and walking 3.41 batters per nine while only striking out 4.29 per nine. He will be in tough today vs. a Blue Jays squad who is red hot since Jose Bautista went on the disable list. Here are the slash lines of the big three since June 17th.

Donaldson(.400/.511/.747)

Encarnacion(.313/.427/.582)

Tulowitzki(.328/.396/.672)

That is pretty good I would say. The Jays lineup gives you choices of whether to go top of the order with Carrera leading off or stack the middle of the order and add Saunders or Martin or go down even further and get some low ownership on Pillar and Travis. Either way, you can’t go wrong with the Jays today.

Chicago White Sox vs. Matt Wisler (Braves)
Park – US Cellular Field

There are a number of good-to-great pitchers going on this Friday slate of games. Matt Wisler isn’t one of them. While not bottom-of-the-barrel bad, he isn’t a guy we’re scared of by any means. He strikes out less than seven batters per nine and has an xFlP close in on 5.00 halfway through the season. The White Sox make for a decent value today mostly because they’re coming cheap. That’s the case because they aren’t a very good team. But we can target lesser bats in good matchups when the price is right. Tim Anderson at the leadoff fills a SS need even for a guy who nearly refuses to take a walk (1 BB in 112 PAs this season). But he has some sneaky power upside and wheels to turn loose. Then there’s Jose Abreu whose price has fallen thanks in some part to a dip in HR/FB%. But U.S. Cellular plays to power and I think the Sox could be a sneaky stack here.

Austyn Varney

Welcome to Thursday baseball! We have a 2 game early slate on the docket to lead off the 9 game main slate. With some interesting options all across the board and a couple over/unders over 10, it is going to be a very fun night. Let’s take a look at some pitchers and offenses we can look to target!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools as well as our Premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

Stack Targets

Colorado Rockies vs. Adam Morgan (Phillies)
Park – Coors Field

While the Coors Field game is rarely mentioned in the stacks article due to it’s obvious nature, Adam Morgan calls for drastic measures. Morgan is one of the absolute worst pitchers in the league and I will be beyond surprised if he makes it out of the 3rd or 4th inning without giving up a ton of runs and getting pulled. Not only has Morgan been bad against righties, though with just as bad as a wOBA against left handers. My favorite 5 would be Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Raburn, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon, in that order. That being said, every hitter in the lineup will be in serious consideration for both cash games and tournaments. Make sure you get some exposure to this offense as I promise this will not be one of those times where the Rockies get shut out against an average pitcher in Coors Field. While this stack will be heavily owned, you should look to get cute elsewhere in a tournament.

Minnesota Twins vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (Rangers)
Park – Arlington Park

Moving on to a sneakier stack, we will look at the Minnesota Twins facing off against the man, the myth, the legend, Chi Chi Gonzalez. Chi Chi has been horrendous since entering the majors with a .382 combined wOBA that is backed up by an utter ridiculous 43% hard contact rate against lefties and while you may think he is due for some positive regression, his peripherals suggest the exact opposite. The Twins on the other hand, have hit righties well this season and will improve their numbers even further now that Miguel Sano is back and hitting the ball well. My top hitters from the team are going to be Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas, in that order. While the other do have upside, I think those 5 work the best together with power and speed combinations. If you want to get a little off the board, I wouldn’t mind throwing Mauer in there.

Pitching Targets

Lucas Giolito FD 7200 DK 8100
Opponent – NYM (Colon) Park – @NYM
FD – 32.02 DK – 17.44

Pitcher is extremely ugly and everything I say here is going to be very relative to this slate. That being said, I think Lucas Giolito has to be considered. While the sample size is small, Giolito has been great against both righties and lefties. While the Mets are thought of as a good team, they have been atrocious lately against righties with a .302 wOBA in the last month. While I am obviously not comfortable with Giolito in cash games, he makes for a great tournament play. With him sitting at 7 thousand on FanDuel and 8 thousand on DraftKings, he does not have to do too much to make you happy. If you are looking for a guy that is going to get some strikeouts and go about 100 pitches, Giolito is your guy, though he definitely has risk. To add on, his strikeout numbers will come as he struck out a fair amount of guys in the minors and that is not something that just falls by the wayside.

Hyun-Jin Ryu FD 8700 DK 10300
Opponent – SD (Pomeranz) Park – @LAD
FD – 30.84 DK – 20.42

While I have not seen a pitch count for Ryu, you can clear this from your mind if there is one announced. While the Padres are bad against righties, they are not good against lefties either. Ryu is probably the best pitcher on the slate if we are talking talent, and while that doesn’t really matter, it is always nice to have a guy that has a ton of talent. To clarify, pitching is absolutely atrocious and neither of these guys would be mentioned if this was a regular 15 game slate with multiple aces on the mound. That being said, Ryu is the most talented pitcher on the board and I think he has a ton of upside if there is no pitch count or it is around 100-90 Aside from the great pitchers ballpark, the Padres lack both power and speed. When talking upside, however, I am not sure the Dodgers will stretch him out in his first start back from the DL.

Chris Durell

It’s an interesting smaller slate in tonight’s MLB. On the one hand we have a clear pitching option who’ll likely be the chalk across the board. But after that it gets a little murkier. The starting pitcher two slot on DK is especially tricky as you’ll need to decide whether to pay up for an arm with a slightly worse pts/$ multiplier or risk it on a cheaper option. I don’t envy the decision either way.

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools and our premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR and Razzball projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

On the offensive side of things it’s a little clearer with one team projected for many more runs than the next closest squad. Let’s take a look at how things shake out.

Johnny Cueto FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent – COL (De La Rosa) Park – @SF
FD – 40.79 DK – 26.89

Johnny Cueto is in a great spot on Wednesday facing the Rockies who, going into Tuesday night, had lost six straight and seven of their last 10 games and sit with a 19-25 road record on the season. They are nowhere near as scary away from Coors as they rank 25th in wOBA on road. Even their numbers against righties this season, non-park adjusted, don’t totally scare you considering what Coors does to inflate stats. Cueto has had two bad starts in a row allowing 10 earned runs but did get the win vs. the Diamondbacks while striking out nine batters in seven innings pitched. He pitches in a terrific environment and will have a great shot to pick up his 13th win of the season. He’s the clear chalk play tonight and it’s not really close.

Marcus Stroman FD 7100 DK 6400
Opponent – KC (Kennedy) Park – @TOR
FD – 31.59 DK – 20.88

Pay up or save on DK? With the big discount I will side with Stroman today against a Royals team ranked 20th in wOBA(.310) vs. right handed pitching who’ve struggled away from Kauffman Stadium with a 16-29 record on the road. Stroman has experienced an up and down season, which is to be expected of a pitcher who relies less on strikeouts and more on his command and control. He doesn’t have a pretty strikeout rate (6.42 K/9) but is producing a 59% ground ball rate. There are some positive signs for Stroman who is coming off an excellent start vs. the red hot Indians as he only gave up one earned run on five hits in 6.2 innings pitched with six punchouts and only one walk. I would even go as far as trusting him in DK cash games paired with on of the top options.

Stack Targets
Boston Red Sox vs. Martin Perez (Rangers)
Park – Fenway Park

For me, the Red Sox are the clear stack target on this evening slate. They open at about six expected runs, somewhere around 15% more than the next highest team. They’ll face a lefty in Martin Perez who walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out (4.43 k/9, 3.82 k/9) and sports an atrocious 4.91 xFIP. Don’t let that 3.39 ERA fool you. Dude isn’t good. The Red Sox will run three righties down the top of the order in Mookie Betts, Dustin, Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts. All three handle lefties better for their careers. Even David Ortiz in the reverse platoon is in play. I’m all over Red Sox in cash games and am even more encouraged because they’ve fallen somewhat out of public favor in the short term.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jeff Locke (Pirates)
Park – Busch Stadium

The Cardinals caught my eye when first looking at this slate. They face off against Jeff Locke who, in my opinion, has been lucky to have recorded eight wins to this point. He is working with an absolutely awful 4.66 K/9 rate while walking close to three batters per nine innings. His ERA sits at 5.13 and the xFIP of 5.01 does not suggest he is any better. Digging even deeper on Locke’s numbers you will see his Home/Road splits are pretty amazing. At home he has been serviceable with a 2.96 ERA and has held opponents to under a .300 wOBA. When the Pirates head out on the road it has been a different story all together as Locke has a 7.16 ERA and has allowed opponents a .373 wOBA. It is best to target the right handed bats(Piscotty, Holliday, Diaz, Molina) for the Cards as Locke is allowing 32.8% hard contact vs. right handed hitters vs. a 21% hard contact rate vs. lefties.

Nick Rodriguez

I hope everyone enjoyed the three-day weekend! We have 14 games on our hands today and it’s going to be a wild one. We have Bumgarner on the mound – then after that it gets tricky. I’ll be targeting my top GPP stacks and pitchers on today’s slate, so lets get right to it!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools and our premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR and Razzball projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

Pitching Targets

Carlos Carrasco FD 10200 DK 11700
Opponent – DET (Sanchez) Park – @CLE
FD – 36.48 DK – 23.9

One route that I would strongly consider taking for tournaments is Carlos Carrasco. He is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game today and will be going up against a Tigers’ squad that strikes out quite a bit (22.4 K% 7th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers. I honestly think Carrasco has the highest ceiling on the night, so I’m all in on the 29-year-old for tournaments.

Not only do the Tigers strikeout a ton, but Carrasco also does some fanning of his own. He is coming into this contest sporting a 25.4 K% to go along with a 1.06 WHIP. This guy is the real-deal and is the best option for tournaments on tonight’s slate.

Masahiro Tanaka FD 9000 DK 9900
Opponent – CHW (Rodon) Park – @CHW
FD – 31.78 DK – 21.04

Looking for a cheaper SP2 option? Then I recommend going with Masahiro Tanaka. He will be pitching on the road today going up against the Chicago White Sox. Not only is this a good matchup for the Japanese phenom, but it also gives him a nice ballpark boost. On the year, the White Sox own a .307 wOBA (23rd in MLB) and 21.3 K% (13th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers. He isn’t a guy with huge upside, but he’s got a lot of things going for him tonight and I expect him to deliver a quality start.

Stack Targets

Oakland Athletics vs. Tommy Milone (MIN)
Update
The weather at Target Field is looking, well, not so good. Keep an eye on things with our mlb weather page here, and here’s a screenshot of the current forecast:

I know the Athletics aren’t a team that you tend to stack on a day-to-day basis, but I love them tonight. I’m not sure if it’s because they will be going up against Tommy Milone or the fact that they eat left-handed pitchers for breakfast. What the heck — I love them for both of those reasons.

Tommy Milone is a southpaw that has had his share of struggles this season since returning from the DL. He is sporting a 6.23 ERA that is backed up by a 5.31 FIP. That is all very appealing when looking to stack against a pitcher, but there is one thing in particular that stood out the most to me. And that was opponents hard contact rate against him. They own a 40.0% hard contact rate, which explains why his FIP and ERA are so inflated. Things have been ugly and going up against the A’s (.179 IS0 vs. lefties) sure isn’t going to help him out.

Cleveland Indians vs Anibal Sanchez (DET)

The Indians have been killing it! There are no other words to describe what they are doing. They have been on a rampage since the the NBA Finals; so don’t mess with the tribe! A 14-game win streak is no joke (snapped over the weekend) and I’ll have some exposure to these guys, as they will be going up against Anibal Sanchez.

Sanchez was a spectacular ballplayer in his prime — but he’s no longer in his prime. He’s 32 years old and has struggled mightily. He sports a 6.05 ERA that is backed up by a 5.24 xFIP. One of the key issues for Sanchez has been control and command in his pitches. He owns a 10.0 BB% to go along with a 17.9 K%. The stuff just isn’t there anymore for the veteran, so look for the red-hot Indians to have themselves a night — yet again!

By Nick Rodriguez

Happy 4th of July everyone! I know its Monday, but there is no better way to kickoff the week with some afternoon baseball. I will be talking some of the top stacks on today’s MLB slate as well some of the top GPP pitching options. So let’s get to it! And most importantly, stay safe on this beautiful holiday!

Don’t forget to check out our free MLB research tools and our premium fanduel and draftkings lineup optimizer for MLB, complete with DFSR and Razzball projections. Get started for free with our 3-day trials!

Stack Targets

Diamondbacks vs.Luis Perdomo (SD)

The 23-year-old is off to a rough start in the big leagues. He is coming into this contest sporting a 8.49 ERA that is backed up by a 5.46 FIP (yikes). His ERA and FIP are terrible, but that isn’t the only reason why I will be stacking the Diamondbacks today. Another reason is the park. Perdomo will be moving from spacious Petco Park into hitter-friendly Chase Field, which is never a good thing. The Diamondbacks own a .426 SLG (9th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers, so look for them to do some damage against the young right-hander.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Jon Niese (STL)

Niese is coming into this contest sporting an ERA and FIP over 5 (ouch). He has had a rough going in the early part of the season and I expect that trend to continue today against the Cardinals. He also owns a 1.53 WHIP and 7.8 K-BB%, which just shows you the type of year he is having. Everything about this matchup is yelling out Cardinals’ righties to me, so just do yourself a favor and stack St. Louis today. I know they are in the bottom half of the league against southpaws, but this matchup is just way to good to pass up on and I expect them to make some fireworks of their own today.

Pitching Targets

Danny Salazar FD 10600 DK 11200
Opponent – DET – Norris Park-@CLE
FD – 34.62 DK – 23.03

Salazar has been great this season for the Indians. He is coming into this contest sporting a 2.22 ERA that is backed up by a 3.13 FIP. I know he isn’t talked about much around the league (often a good thing), but this guy is the real deal. His ERA and FIP are very attractive, but what sticks out to me is his K%. He owns a 28.5 K%, and we all know that strikeouts are important when rostering a pitcher into your squads.

It’s never easy to go against the Tigers, but I love the matchup for Salazar. Yes, the Tigers are one of the best teams in the league against right-handed pitchers (9th in MLB in wOBA), but they also strikeout a ton. They own a 22.4 K% (9th in MLB), which is why I love Salazar. Sure this matchup has some risk, but it is certainly contrarian and he has the highest ceiling on the night, so I will go ahead and roll the dice on him.

Carlos Martinez FD 8900 DK 8900
Opponent – PIT (Niese) Park – @STL
FD – 34.8 DK – 22.75

First and foremost, you have to love his price tag. 8K on both sites is just a thing of beauty. He will allow you to pay up for those big bats you love on today’s slate. Not only is his price tag attractive, but so is the Vegas line. Anytime you can roster in a pitcher that is a -180 favorite and is under 10K, it makes your life a whole lot easier. Wins are very valuable in DFS, so going with Baby Pedro is the best way to go if you’re chasing a W. Plus, we all know how dominant he can be when he is on his A-game.

(If you haven’t read part 1 check it out here: Why Use a Lineup Optimizer? Part 1)

To understand the value of lineup optimization, lets look at the reality of how many possible lineups exist.

If you have ~300 available players and must select 9 of them, how many possible combinations of 9 are there? (Hint: It’s probably a lot more than you think) Math time! Lets look at an example using NFL:

We need 1 QB, 2 RB’s, 3 WR’s, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. And lets say this is the breakdown by position:

• 28 Available QB’s = Choose 1, so 28 Possible Choices
• 90 Available RB’s = Choose 2, so 4,005 Possible Choices
• 110 Available WR’s = Choose 3, so 215,820 Possible Choices
• 40 Available TE’s = Choose 1, so 40 Possible Choices
• 28 Available K’s = Choose 1, so 28 Possible Choices
• 28 Available D’s = Choose 1, so 28 Possible Choices

How many possible combinations of 9 do we have?

[Nerd Alert: We are looking for combinations not permutations. There is a difference. If you would like to calculate the above and understand these numbers, you can check out the great combination / permutation calculator at mathisfun.com]

Now, we simply multiply them together to get our grand total of possible lineups:

28 x 4005 x 215,820 x 40 x 28 x 28 = 7.58976439 x 10^14
or
758,976,439,000,000 possible lineups.

Yes people, that is seven hundred fifty eight TRILLION possible lineups. Give or take few billion.

Things get even hairier when you add FLEX / UTIL players. The number of possible lineups compounds into unfathomable numbers. (It is an interesting exercise to figure out which sport & operator site has the most possible combinations, but we will save that for another day.)

Now, truth be told, we can reduce that number down pretty quickly because there are plenty of awful players that we know with certainty we will never use. But even if you bring these numbers down a lot, you still have trillions upon trillions of possible lineups.

Optimization can definitely help.

So is it even possible to find the #1 lineup? Yes it is! I still remember when we ran our first successful calculation. Quite frankly, I was nervous. Why? Well, I had one remaining nagging feeling. What if we find the #1 solution, lets say the total points achieved was 133.49 points, but what if the top 500 lineups also achieved 133.49 points? What if the top 1 MILLION lineups were tied for 133.49 points? A 1 million-way tie for first place would mean that there is no real value in doing this calculation. So we crossed our fingers and ran the algorithm and waited for several hours. (Hey, version 1 was purely brute-force and very slow.) Many hours later, I came back and saw the output on my screen. It looked something like this:

1. Resulting Points: 133.490 / Salary used: $60,000
2. Resulting Points: 133.488 / Salary used: $60,000
3. Resulting Points: 133.482 / Salary used: $60,000
4. Resulting Points: 133.480 / Salary used: $59,900
5. Resulting Points: 133.471 / Salary used: $60,000
6. Resulting Points: 133.470 / Salary used: $59,600
7. . . . [a few thousand more results] . . . .

Success!!!

There was not a massive tie for first place. There was a clear #1 result and it did edge out the 2nd result, even if just by a few points. It was real, and it was staring me right in the face.

But now another question hit me: All of those lineups that I created manually in the past, where did they fall in the order of possibilities? In the top 1,000? Top 10,000? Top 1 million?
I gave this some serious thought and realized something unsettling. If you consider 1 Trillion possible lineups (for simplicity sake), the top 1 million lineups make up only the top .0001% of all possible lineups. Yes, the top 1,000,000 solutions are only a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the total possible number of solutions. There was virtually no way I had ever manually built a lineup that landed the top million solutions.

Before optimization, I was doing it wrong.

Ok, so the #1 result is clearly valuable. Now what? Once we realized we had something interesting, it was time to start understanding how to apply it. Was this lineup good for head to heads? GPPs? 50/50s?

The answer we finally arrived at? Cash games. A #1 result, using the default Lineup Lab settings, is best used in large 50/50s, double ups & head to heads. Later on, we found that an optimizer is very valuable in Tournaments, but only if we generate multiple lineups in an intelligent way. Check out our limits tutorial as an example.

Daily Fantasy Sports is all about finding an edge no matter how small. If the #1 solution is even a 10th of a point higher than the #2 solution, shouldn’t you use it? Have you ever lost a game on a 10th of a point? I certainly have.

Sure there will be times when the #1 result has a player you don’t agree with. Remove him and re-calculate. Lineup Lab is a tool to help give you that edge. The Lineup Lab users who are consistently growing their bankroll and taking down large tournaments are combining their own personal opinions & research with Lineup Lab. This is the best way to use the software, and frankly, the most fun.

Push-button win systems do not exist. The human factor is strong in sports. Those of you who have played sports understand this. Have you ever seen a nervous batter’s face as he steps into the box? Or a hyper-confident point guard who walks up to the free-throw line? Ever said something like, "Ten bucks says he strikes out/sinks a 3/gets sacked." ?

If you love sports, then combine your knowledge of these nuances with our power lineup optimizers and you will have an awesome Daily Fantasy Experience.

Take me back to the Lineup Lab homepage -> https://www.lineuplab.com