bpender

Nick Rodriguez

We have an 8-game slate on our hands tonight and it should be interesting to say the least! We have some great pitching options with not that many high run totals. So lets get right to it!

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg FD 11600 DK 12900
Opponent – ARI (Bradley) Park – @ARI
FD – 41.09 DK – 26.94

It’s a tiny 8-game slate, so I recommend paying up for pitching! And the guy you should be paying up for is, Stephen Strasburg.

His numbers are just outrageous! He owns a 29.2 K% (MAJOR UPSIDE) along with a 1.08 WHIP and 2.75 xFIP. He is one of the best pitchers in the game today, and draws a beautiful matchup against the Diamondbacks. The D’backs own a K% over 23%. This just gives Strasburg even more upside (not that he needed much help). And the best part about this matchup is the fact that the D’backs are ice-cold. They own a 74 wRC+ in their last 30 contests, so go ahead and pay up for Strasburg tonight! This is one beautiful matchup.

Chris Archer FD 9300 DK 10100
Opponent – KC (Duffy) Park – @TB
FD – 35.48 DK – 19.04

Chris Archer sure struggled in the first half of the season, but he has looked like his old self in his last five starts. He owns a 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a whopping 29.8 K% during that span. He’s been as dominant as ever and going up against a Royals’ offense that is ice-cold; sets him up nicely.

In the last month of baseball, the Royals have been struggling. They are dead last in wOBA, ISO and wRC+. Their offense has been completely dead and I’ll go ahead and play Chris Archer in tournaments. His upside is through the roof!

Stacks

Washington Nationals vs. Archie Bradley (ARI)

The Nationals continue their west coast road trip and are now spending the next few days at Arizona. This means that they’ve get a huge ballpark boost and will be facing a bullpen that owns a 4.90 ERA on the year (29th in MLB).

I would go ahead and stack the Nationals just on those two factors, but they will be also going up against Archie Bradley, who has struggled to find his groove in the majors.

On the year, Bradley owns a 1.41 WHIP to go along with a 4.52 FIP. His problem this season has been the walks, as he has walked over 11% of the batters has faced, which yells out [trouble] to me. The Nationals are in the middle of the pack when it comes to hitting righties, so go ahead and plug them into your lineups! They have a beautiful matchup and other factors in their favor as well!

My top 4 guys to stack: Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jarred Cosart (SD)

Cosart will be making his first start with San Diego and I don’t see it going to well for him. Since 2014, he owns a 4.34 xFIP and walks over 10% of his batters. The worst part about Cosart is the fact that he walks all of these batters and only fans 15% of the hitters he faces. I see this favoring the Brewers tonight.

While this Brewers’ squad is known for striking out, they have been one of the hottest teams in baseball. In their last 14 games, they own a .339 wOBA (4th in MLB) and 111 wRC+ (5th in MLB). Don’t sleep on the red-hot Brewers tonight!

My top 4 guys to stack: Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Villar and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Austyn Varney

Welcome to Saturday baseball! We have a full 15 game all-day slate on our hands with some aces and a few offenses in great spots to put up some runs. Let’s get into some pitchers and stacks to consider. And don’t forget to check back with us later before locks; if something interesting catches our eye we’ll be updating this later.

Pitching Targets

Jake Arrieta FD 10800 DK 11800
Opponent – SEA (Miley) Park – @CHC
FD – 39.04 DK – 25.45

The pitcher position is a very interesting one tonight as there is nobody that sticks out, but there are plenty of guys that are in quality positions. Arrieta is going to be on the top of that list as he has the most talent that is in a good match up. While the Seattle Mariners do have some big left handed bats, they also strikeout at a 20% rate and have sported a .448 SLG. Arrieta on the other hand, has been dominant on the season with a sub .250 wOBA that is backed up by a 26% hard contact rate. This game takes place in Wrigley Field, which is a very neutral ballpark, and is heavily influenced by the wind speed and direction. Arrieta is definitely a little bit risky, but he is the safest on the board and offers a ton of upside.

Julio Teheran FD 8300 DK 9500

Opponent – PHI (Hellickson) Park – @ATL

FD – 35.23 DK – 23.91

Julio Teheran is another guy with a ton of upside as he can strikeout 10 batters in any given start. Teheran and the Braves will be taking on the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that has sported a .297 wOBA and a 18% line drive rate against right handers. Julio Teheran, however, has been fantastic against both righties and lefties with a combined wOBA of .263. To go along with a great wOBA, he has exhibited a 2.85 xFIP and a 10% HR/FB rate. Teheran is a guy who should be priced around $10000 on both sites, although he is much cheaper than that. While it is very difficult to expect a win, I think the Braves will be able to score some runs on Hellickson. While I prefer Arrieta in cash games, Teheran just might be my preference in tournaments.

Stack Targets

Chicago Cubs vs. Wade Miley (Mariners)
Park – Wrigley Field

Moving on to the late slate, we are going to take a look at the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs will be taking on one of the weaker pitchers on the slate and like the Jays, are one of the top offenses in the majors. The gas can the Cubs will be taking on is Wade Miley, a left handed soft tosser that has been absolutely atrocious to right handers over the last few seasons. Over the course of 80 2016 innings, Miley has given up a .363 wOBA that is heavily supported by a 37% hard contact rate and a 5.16 xFIP. While the Cubs are in a fantastic spot, a lot of teams are and therefore I expect their ownership to be way down. However, there is always a claim to be made for a contrarian stack in a large field tournament. Depending on the wind speed and direction, the Cubs stack has the ability to fluctuate greatly. Keep an eye on that when building stacks in the optimizer tonight.

Top 5-man stack – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras

Contrarian 5-man stack – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Addison Russell

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chase Anderson (Brewers)
Park – Miller Park

While if I had to rank my top stacks, the Pirates wouldn’t be in the top 3, the combination of expected ownership and production is just too much to pass up. I expect the Pirates to go about 1-5% across the board in a match up where they should be around 20-22%. They will be facing off with Chase Anderson, a right hander who has been absolutely pitiful against right handers over the course of his entire career. SO far in 2016, he has given up a .390 wOBA that is supported by his peripherals and batted ball advanced statistics. The game will take place in Miller Park, which came in as a top 5 ballpark for right handed power in 2015. While I love the Pirates, they are a very unpredictable team as we really never know where the production is going to come from. Therefore, I think it is very viable to run a stack of guys lower in the lineup.

Top 5-man stack – Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Jung-ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Austyn Varney

Welcome to Friday baseball! We have a 13 game main slate on our hands with 1 early game at 2:20. On the main slate, we have some great pitchers to consider as well as a  few offenses that are in great spots to produce. While this slate is definitely more tailor made for tournaments, cash games are certainly in play. Let’s take a look at some pitchers and offenses to target across the field. 
 

Pitching Targets

Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13600
Opponent – SF (Samardzija) Park – @SF
FD – 39.14 DK – 25.85

On a night with so many terrific options at the pitcher position, Scherzer leads the way with the highest projected points total on both sites. He is always a solid option as he comes with a high floor and ceiling with the leagues second highest strikeout rate(11.5 K/9) and 15.2% Swinging Strike Rate. Over his last 10 starts since June 1st he has an elite 1.71 ERA and has recorded double digit strikeout totals in six of those 10 starts for a 11.99 K/9 rate. The Giants look like a tough match up on the surface as they only K about 17% of the time vs right handed pitching but there is some upside. They have been struggling over the last 14 days with the 22nd best wOBA and have been striking out over 20% of the time in that span. The Nationals are early -160 road favorites in a game with a low total(7) making Scherzer a terrific option in all formats.

Vincent Velasquez FD 9000 DK 9700
Opponent – ATL (Jenkins) Park – @ATL
FD – 35.15 DK – 23.22

If Scherzer doesn’t allow you to get to the bats you want tonight there are a few other options in great spots that rate better on a PTS/$ basis & will give you that flexibility. Velasquez is one of those arms tonight as he gets a road matchup in Atlanta. Even on the road the Phillies come in early at -150 favorites. This is a testament to just how bad the Braves are. They rank dead last in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching and have scored the fewest runs(346) in the league. Velasquez is having an impressive season to this point which surprising given the team around him. He has an xFIP 3.78 which  isn’t far from his 3.334 ERA and he comes with elite strikeout potential with a 10.11 K/9 rate. The one issue with Velasquez is his walk rate(3.34 BB/9) which elevates his pitch count and keeps him from going deep into games. For this reason I will only be using him in GPP’s tonight.

Steven Matz FD 9700 DK 8500
Opponent – COL (Chatwood) Park – @NYM
FD – 36.66 DK – 24.13
For the most part, outside of a couple bad starts, Matz has been very good this season. He is working with a  3.46 xFIP and an above average 8.50 K/9 rate. He has improved on the walk rate lowering it by about a half walk per nine and is dealing close to 6% more ground balls than his rookie campaign. He will get a favorable spot on Friday to improve on those numbers as the Rockies come to town for a weekend series in the Big Apple.  While the Rockies absolutely mash at home ranking 1st in wOBA(.378), they are quite the opposite on the road ranked 29th in wOBA(.291) and wRC+(78). They also strikeout around 5% on the road as well adding value to Matz tonight. At a price under $10K and a overall game total under 7.0, Matz makes a viable option in any format today.

Stack Targets

Texas Rangers vs. Edinson Volquez (Royals)
Park – Globe Life Park in Arlington
The Rangers are an exciting ball club that is all-of-a-sudden featuring a bunch of power in their lineup. There’s a ton to like about this matchup today. For starters, Edinson Volquez is a low-K, high-BB arm with a mid 4’s xFIP. Volquez has taken a huge dive on the season and has showed his struggles with the home run ball against both sides of the plate. The park in Arlington rates out as one of the best in the game for bats and boosts power to all sides of the plate. And then there’s the Ranger lineup. I’m loving guys like Jurickson Profar and Nomar Mazara hitting at the top of the lineup and righty pitching as their better splits. Ian Desmond’s putting together a fantastic fantasy season and recent call up Joey Gallo has a ton of power (though he k’s in bunches). The prices on the Rangers, especially on FanDuel, make for great stacks and worthwhile in the optimizer today.

San Diego Padres vs. Brandon Finnegan (Reds)
Park – Petco Park
I hate the ballpark so let’s start there. Petco traditionally plays as a pitcher’s park and it’s always tough to string together big games where power is diminished. But I do think the Padres are in a great spot here and their prices are low enough that we can take a shot on the upside in a tournament. Brandon Finnegan is a weak lefty with a putrid 5.25 xFIP through 111 innings this season and a K rate less than seven per nine. To add on, he has struggled against both lefties and righties which gives us the opportunity to target the entire Padres offense. He also walks the ballpark. The Padres have righty power at the top of their lineup with Wil Myers and Matt Kemp leading the way. And while the rest of the their lineup doesn’t feature a ton more righties, the additions of Alex Dickerson and Ryan Schimpf make it tough for the Reds (already bad) bullpen to play match up ball late innings.

Houston Astros vs. Matt Boyd (Tigers)
Park – Comerica Park
The Astros have been red hot lately jumping right up into the mix for the American League Wildcard and now sit just a half game back of the Red Sox and 1.5 back of the Blue Jays. Over the last 14 days they lead baseball with a .346 wOBA and sit second in ISO(.220) and wRC+(116). Their lineup is loaded with young talent that is headlined by Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer who come with a nice combo of power and speed and should make up the core of your stack. Marwin Gonzalez can always be considered as he hits out of the two hole between Springer and Altuve. Gonzalez is also hot right now riding a 11 game hit streak into tonight. If you are looking for additional power to add to your stack today, strongly consider Evan Gattis who provides big power upside against left handed pitching and normally hits in the five hole. The Astros will make for an interesting stack target to throw into the optimizer tonight.

Doug Norrie

We’ve got a pair of early games, but the action picks up in earnest tonight with seven-game evening slate, replete with solid arms and a handful of offenses in good spots. But the real focus today is the pitching. With so many good arms we’ll need to make solid decisions for the bump. 

Jose Fernandez FD 11800 DK 13400
Opponent – STL (Wacha) Park – @MIA
FD – 42.22 DK – 27.75

The pitcher position is pretty loaded tonight, though there is nobody that really stands up above the other elite options. That being said, there is only one team with a team total under 3, and that is the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals are a right-handed heavy that has struggled pretty mightily against right handers with high strikeout rates on the season. Jose Fernandez on the other hand, has demolished righties on the season as evident by the .216 wOBA against. Along with a great wOBA, he has sported a 28.7% hard contact rate and a 15.34 K/9. While there is a ton of top pitching options on the slate, Fernandez is on the top of the list for me. 

Johnny Cueto FD 10700 DK 11900
Opponent – WSH (Roark) Park – @SF
FD – 35.73 DK – 23.78

In tournaments, Jose Fernandez is definitely the guy I am looking at the most. However, in cash games, Johnny Cueto is right up there. He has been very consistent this season with 16 of his 20 starts being that of quality. In 140 innings, he has sported a .263 wOBA to go along with 3.26 xFIP and a 26% hard contact rate. He will be taking on a Washington Nationals team struggling a bit against righties with a .314 wOBA and a 0.48 BB/K rate. The game will be taking place in AT&T Park, which is one of the absolute best for right handed pitchers. Cueto is just another guy in the high priced range to consider at pitcher, though he is a better play on FanDuel at $10700. 

Aaron Nola FD 8000 DK 8400
Opponent – ATL (Wisler) Park – @ATL
FD – 30.37 DK – 19.77

Nola comes in a bit cheaper and a lack of upside definitely comes with the discount. That being said, there is a ton of safety in this match up. While the Braves don’t strikeout a ton against righties, they are one of the worst teams in the league and lack the ability to hit home runs and string together hits as a team. The game will be played in Turner Field, which comes in as a bottom 10 ballpark in the league for left handed batters. While Nola is a righty, he has actually been better against lefties on the season. In 49.1 innings, he ha sported a .297 wOBA to go along with a 29.5% hard contact rate and a 17.3% line drive rate. While he is not recommended for tournaments, he makes for a very SP2 on a site like DraftKings at only $8400.

Boston Red Sox vs. Jered Weaver (LAA)

The Red Sox are my top stack of the night, and it isn’t even close. They will be going up against Jered Weaver, who has struggled mightily this season. He is coming into this contest sporting an ERA, SIERA, and Fielding Independeng Pitching- well over five. It just sets this Boston Red Sox team perfectly. This is as good as a matchup you’ll see in DFS, so don’t try to be cute and fade a team that has the highest wOBA against right-handed pitchers, especially against one whose peripherals are just awful. The Sox lineup runs deep and have tough outs even at the bottom of the lineup

My top 4 hitters to stack: David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts and Hanley Ramirez

Minnesota Twins vs. Ubaldo Jimenez (BAL)

With all these aces on the mound, there are not many stacking options, but I like the Twins tonight. They will be going up against Ubaldo Jimenez; another guy struggling this season. He is coming into this contest boasting a 1.97 WHIP to go along with a 7.38 ERA. His xFIP indicates that his ERA will drop, but not to any great degree. He is putting two base runners on per inning, which just yells out trouble. I know the Twins don’t have the best offense in the big leagues, but this is one gorgeous matchup and it will be interesting to see how there ownership percentages look today.

My top 4 hitters to stack: Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer and Brain Dozier.

It’s a double slate of baseball, but we’ll cover the shorter evening slate of games here. Today’s biggest theme is how much quality pitching takes the bump. The afternoon featured Bumgarner, Strasburg, Carrasco and Conley among others. But the evening has it’s own arms as well.

This glut of arms do make the hitter decisions a bit closer, but there’s value there as well.

Lance McCullers FD 9100 DK 10100
Opponent – NYY (Tanaka) Park – @HOU
FD – 33.28 DK – 21.87

McCullers is a high upside play today in a matchup against the Yankees who are only projected for just over three runs tonight. He is a bit of a mystery as he comes with huge K upside (11.52 K/9 for the season) but has had a ton of issues with walks (5.37 BB/9). He has been able to control the ERA(3.33) and xFIP(3.27) as he is serving up 57.2% ground balls. The Yankees don’t strike out a ton (18.7% vs. RH pitching) but they also don’t walk much either which should help neutralize the awful walk rate. McCullers has also been a much better option at home this season with a 2.39 ERA and has limited opponents to a .239 average. I don’t fully trust him for cash games but think he makes a great GPP play tonight and worth some exposure in the optimizer.

Yu Darvish FD 9600 DK 11300
Opponent – OAK (Manaea) Park – @TEX
FD – 31.01 DK – 20.5

If the Rangers can put together some offensive production for Darvish tonight he will be an elite option. In his two starts since coming of the disabled list he has struck out 20 batters in just 10.1 innings and it appears they will stretch him out past 90 pitches tonight. While the A’s don’t strikeout a bunch vs. right handed pitching(18.1%) they rank 27th in wOBA(.301) and 24th in ISO(.145). I feel comfortable with Darvish in any format tonight though I understand the risk is there with the pitch count. If you think his pitches are managed then it’s a bit risky.

Stacks
Chicago Cubs vs. Anthony Ranaudo (White Sox)
Park – Wrigley Field
The Cubs are currently projected at around 5.5 runs tonight at home in a great matchup vs. the White Sox. I can easily see them going over that total as they face a complete gas can in Anthony Ranaudo. This will be his first start of 2016 after making two previous relief appearances. In those appearances he pitched 3.2 innings and gave up just two hits but an absurd eight walks which lead to seven earned runs. If he continues down this path as a starter today the Cubs could hit the over in the first couple of innings.

Top Hitters in the Stack – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Value Hitters to Stack – Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Javier Baez

Punt Play – Jason Heyward

Minnesota Twins vs. Michael Foltynewicz
Park – Target Field
The Twins, as a team, are coming rather cheap on this slate with one of the higher run totals on the board. Right now we have them projected to score 4.78 runs against Folty (whose name I don’t even try and pronounce). The latter isn’t bad mind you with an 8 K/9 rate and a manageable 4.21 xFIP. But I love some of the prices on the Twins today with Eduardo Nunez and Miguel Sano coming cheap on both sites. The former adds speed to the equation which helps his floor and Sano has as much power upside as anyone in the game. 

Top Hitters in the Stack – Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Nick Rodriguez and Blake Pender

We have a full 15-game slate on our hands tonight and no clear-cut cash game pitcher taking the mound. Combine that with quite a few stacking options and we just might have ourselves an interesting Rage-Tweet-Tuesday.

If Leon gets the start, we are interested

Danny Salazar FD 10100 DK 9500
Opponent – WSH (Gonzalez) Park – @CLE
FD – 35.47 DK – 23.4

Yes, Danny Salazar has to face Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, but besides those two guys, no one on that squad devours right-handed pitchers. They are in the middle-of-the-pack when it comes to facing righties, which puts Salazar in a great position.

Besides a solid matchup, Salazar is one of the top pitchers on the slate (if not the top pitcher), when it comes to raw talent. He owns a 27.4 K% (upside!) to go along with a 2.75 ERA. It’s not the best of days for pitchers, but Salazar is very affordable and you have to love his upside. He has the highest ceiling on today’s slate along with, Chris Archer.

Kyle Hendricks FD 9200 DK 10900
Opponent – CHW (Shields) Park – @CHW
FD – 29.93 DK – 19.39

I gave you a guy with a whole lot of upside, and now I present to you a "safe play" in, Kyle Hendricks. Besides being the “safest” option on today’s slate, he has also been one of the most consistent pitchers this season. He owns a 2.27 ERA to go along with a 3.32 FIP. A little luck but watching him I am pulling for a no-regress day. Not only does he have one of the best ERAs this season, but he also draws a favorable matchup going up against the White Sox, who are in the bottom half of the spectrum when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers. So go ahead and use Hendricks in cash games tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Matt Garza (MIL)

It’s another day with Garza on the bump! Which means the D’backs are going to make it into at least a few of my stacks tonight.

Matt Garza has had a rough going this season and I see that trend continuing tonight. He is coming into this contest sporting a 1.76 WHIP, 5.94 ERA and 4.96 xFIP. All of those numbers are terrible, but there are even more reasons on why you should pick on the veteran. The other thing that stood out to me, besides his high ERA and WHIP, was the fact that opponents own a 39.3% hard contact rate along with a .325 AVG against him. Sure the D’backs don’t have the same firepower as some of the offenses in the league, but if you’re looking to be different with your stack tonight, then go with Goldy and company in the optimizer.

Houston Astros vs. C.C. Sabathia (NYY)

C.C. Sabathia sure looked good in the beginning of the year, but he’s been struggling as of late. In his last five starts, he owns a 7.04 ERA to go along with a 1.57 WHIP. He’s had trouble keeping opposing batters off base, which is why I will go ahead and stack the Houston Astros. Besides the fact that they are facing a pitcher that has had a tough time on the mound as of late, we all know the type of upside this offense has, especially against a left-handed pitcher. So guys don’t be shy and get some exposure to the Houston Astros in our optimizer tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. Mike Pelfrey (DET)

This stack target probably has the most raw data going for it. Which is why we are listing it last. It almost seems too obvious and so we expect to see plenty of sox batters in use tonight. Pelfrey is the cheapest option on Fanduel, so even Fanduel agrees with DFSR’s projection, which is the lowest of the day across all pitchers. With 100+ innings pitched, he is still rocking a 1.76 WHIP, he cant strike guys out at 4 K/9, and his ERA is hovering around 5. wOBA allowed is .385 which is the 3rd highest of the day. Vegas has the game at 10 runs. This just screams crowded play so I’m not too excited. But if you can snag 1-2 of the less obvious guys then you might be able to make BOS part of a winning GPP lineup.

Personally, I like the prices, hand matchups, and wOBAs of Jackie Bradley J.R. in OF and I like Sandy Leon at Catcher if he gets the start, with his .470 wOBA and 1.1 OPS. He only has 80 AB’s so so keep that in mind. But if the confidence continues and Pelfrey gives him meat on the plate, we will all be happy we played him. As usual, Ortiz looks super beastly as well. Go look at his numbers in Player Lab. Those stats, .330 batting average, and slugging .664, and nearly a 1.1 OPS…. all this at 327 at-bats into the season?

Gah, don’t retire bro.

Honorable Mentions, OAK & SF/CIN

Finally, OAK, and both sides of the SF/CIN game deserve mentioning. With OAK, Nick Martinez is still looking for his stride, with a 2+ WHIP in the last 20 Innings pitched. The reason I’m bullish though is his almost 5 xFIP. So I’ll be mixing in some OAK in the lineup optimizer when I throw together a few double stacks tonight. With SF/CIN, we have 2 pitchers at the bottom of the pile, with Matt Cain being a tad lower with more sample size and a higher xFIP. IF and only IF the wind continues to blow in the double digits out to center, I will keep this one on my radar. After all, AT&T isn’t the most hitter friendly park.

Told you there were quite a few interesting stacks tonight! Good luck everyone!

Nick Rodriguez

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend! And I hope you read James Davis’ article yesterday. The Astros sure did give poor Tim Lincicum a whipping. Our Instagram (@lineuplab) followers received a very poignant message about that late Saturday night! We have an 11-game slate on our hands tonight and will be going over our top GPP stacks and pitchers of the night. These picks might catch you a little off guard, but lets get right into the action!

You. Fan. Catch this homer.

Carlos Martinez FD 9500 DK 11400
Opponent – NYM (Syndergaard) Park – @NYM
FD – 31.59 DK – 21.28

Carlos Martinez going up against Noah "Thor" Syndergaard will scare a lot of people away, but not me. Martinez has a better matchup between the two and Syndergaard’s inconsistencies as of late, has shied me away from him.

Like I said before, Martinez has an excellent matchup going up against the Mets. On the year, they own own a .308 wOBA (20th in MLB) to go along with a 22.8 K% (8th in MLB). This matchup provides Baby Pedro with the K upside we look for with rostering a pitcher and pitching at spacious Citi Field certainly gives him a boost (just from a general pitching standpoint). He’s more of a GPP play for me, as he will be going up against Thor, but you got to love the matchup Martinez and his 2.83 ERA have today.

Dallas Keuchel FD 8600 DK 8000
Opponent – NYY (Pineda) Park – @HOU
FD – 32.39 DK – 21.38

Let me start off by describing how dominant Keuchel is when pitching at Minute Maid Park. Since 2014, he owns a 1.03 WHIP, 2.36 ERA and has held opponents to a .215 AVG. I can’t figure out what he loves so much about pitching at home, but let me tell you: he’s a completely different animal when he steps foot on that rubber at Minute Maid Park. Not only is he pitching at home, but he also draws a favorable matchup going up against the Yankees.

On the year, the Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitchers. They own a .304 wOBA (27th in MLB) and .127 ISO (28th in MLB). They have been awful against southpaws and moving away from Yankee Stadium will hurt their numbers even more. I know some of you will be scared to roster a pitcher with a 4.70 ERA, but he’s been much better than his ERA suggests, as he owns a 3.55 xFIP.

Oakland Athletics vs. Martin Perez (TEX)
Now this is something you don’t see everyday! The Oakland Athletics as a top stack of the night! I love the position they are in tonight going up against Martin Perez. Not only is this a favorable matchup for the A’s, as they will be going up against a southpaw (.159 ISO/ 105 wRC+ vs. lefties), but they will also be moving from Oakland (pitcher-friendly park) to Arlington (hitter-friendly park), which will help their numbers. Also, being the away team gives them a small edge on overall plate appearances.

What makes this matchup even better, is the fact that they will be going up against a southpaw that has struggled this season. On the year, Perez owns a 9.9 BB% and 5.03 xFIP. He struggles with control and command in his pitches, which is part of the reason why he has allowed 19 earned runs in his last three outings. Go ahead and get some exposure to the A’s tonight by stacking or double stacking the A’s in our MLB optimizer.

 
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chase Anderson (MIL)
Chase Anderson has been awful this season. He is coming into this contest with a 5.50 ERA to go along with a 5.51 FIP. It has been a year to forget for the 28-year-old, which is why I will go ahead and stack Paul Goldschmidt and company. Not only is his ERA through-the-roof, but there are other reasons why I am stacking against him. One of the reasons why is because of his hard contact rate. On the year, opponents own a hard contact rate of 37.5%. This has been one reason why he has struggled and pitching at Miller Park won’t help his cause. Another reason why I will be stacking against him is because he owns a 1.80 HR/9. That typically isn’t something you look to target, but that number yells out upside to me! Dingers = tons and tons of fantasy points. I know the D’backs won’t be a very high-owned stack, which is perfect for tourneys! Crowd mentality is not how you win tournaments.

James Davis

It’s Sunday morning and you are reading this at church. Your spouse is pissed and might blow your cover. So less talky more picks.

I’m coming after you Timmy

Pitchers for today

Jon Lester – FD 10200 DK 10600
Opponent – MIL (Guerra) Park – @MIL

Lester is looking great in big tournaments today. Lester’s resume is well known at this point, but it bears repeating. Yes, his ERA has outperformed his xFIP this season. Yes, the strike-outs are down. And, yes, the walks are up. None of these are good. But! You’re still getting Lester at a discount to top tier aces, and while that’s fair enough, it’s not just about Lester here.

How about those Brewers? They’re in the bottom half of the league in terms of wOBA against left handed pitching, but what really makes this an interesting match-up is the absurd strike-out rate. Their 24.2% K rate vs. southpaws is the worst in the league, and pairing that with their .145 ISO (5th worst in the league) means they’re good for big games and don’t usually beat pitchers down even when things are going right. The Cubs are a -154 favorite at this point as well, so a win looks plenty likely here as well. I frankly like Lester in any format today. And of course, lost stuff and a dirty name can make for a smart tournament play.

Corey Kluber – FD 10300 DK 10900
Opponent – BAL (Worley) Park – @BAL

To get the bad out of the way first, Kluber is no longer a true ace’s ace. But he’s still pretty darned good. He strikes out a guy per inning, goes deep into games, and hasn’t lost his trademark control. I prefer Lester over Kluber today, in spite of Lester’s lost stuff, simply because of the match-up. The Orioles present opposing pitchers considerable upside with their top 10 K rate against RHP, but their top 5 wOBA is fairly scary to me. Vegas likes this as a game with a relatively low total, so I’m not totally spooked here, but I’ll likely just go with Lester.

Rick Porcello – FD 8600 DK 9200
Opponent – MIN (Milone) Park – @BOS

The most interesting thing about today’s pitching options is how tough things get when you get past the top options. I’m not a big believer in Porcello necessarily, but his now-reasonable K rate and still excellent BB rate gives him a decent floor for these bargain prices.

The Twins, meanwhile, are a perfectly adequate match-up for him. They’re top 10 in terms of K rate vs. RHP, and bottom 10 in terms of wOBA. Tommy Milone is a truly terrible pitcher, and the Red Sox can still hit… so if you want to fade the top 2 guys and hold your breath through a Porcello start here, I think it’s a perfectly reasonable GPP play.

Consider: Jameson Taillon.

Stack Targets

The Coors game is obviously going to be a pretty significant target for daily fantasy baseball players trying to put up huge totals tonight, but we’re going to list a few other stacks to target today.

Houston Astros vs. Tim Lincecum (Angels)
Park – Minute Maid Park
If I had a nickel for every time I’ve stacked against Lincecum this season… wait, I have WAY more than a nickel to show for every time I’ve stacked against Lincecum this season. To say that he is a shell of himself is an understatement – his 4.27 xFIP is the 2nd worst of his career, just behind the absolute disaster that was the 2015 season. While his K/9 is up quite a bit, you have to keep in mind that he’s also facing way more batters than usual on account of his 6.59 ERA. So yeah, stacking against Mr. Lincecum is a very very good thing.

As for the Astros, they match up a number of high profile stack targets (Altuve, Correa, Springer) with some lesser known options that should definitely be on your radar if you’re looking to shoot the moon in a big tournament. I’m thinking specifically Luis Valbuena (.827 OPS vs. RHP this year) and Preston Tucker (+.350 OPS points better with pop against RHP in his career) – two low-owned guys who should get you plenty of separation even in a rather chalk match-up.

The Cincinnati Reds vs. Zack Godley (Diamondbacks)
Park – Great American Ballpark
This one is a little bit goofy, given that the Reds have been a bottom 5 team against right handed pitching this season. But hey, we’re looking for interesting GPP plays, am I right? The Reds have a solid implied run total around 5 today on account of two major factors. The first is the opposing pitcher. It’s been a tough start to the season for Godley, whose ERA would actually be quite a bit worse if it weren’t bolstered by a bunch of appearances out of the bullpen.

The next is the ballpark – the Great American Ballpark remains one of the most favorable hitters’ parks in the league. Another interesting point about stacking – keep in mind that you don’t need to play every single guy on a team to make a stack worthwhile. Grabbing just 3 guys from the middle of the order can get you most of the way home in a big tournament. The Votto/Bruce/Duvall combo up the middle is very capable of putting up a huge total all by themselves, and you could also consider getting a little off beat with Billy Hamilton. Again, this is off board, but it’s very interesting.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tommy Milone (Twins)
Park – Fenway Park
No surprise here. It’s the highest non-Coors line of the day, and for good reason. Fenway is a fine place to hit, and Tommy Milone’s 4.35 xFIP rides even higher than his sub-par 4.23 career number. The key to stacking against Milone has always been the lack of strike-outs – 5.80 K/9 is just bad, and the Red Sox are already the third hardest team in the majors for opposing pitchers to strike out.

As for the particular stacking targets, it’s all of the usual suspects here with one exception – I’ll probably pass on Ortiz for big tournaments given the high price tag and his historical struggles against left handed pitching. Everyone else? Totally in play.

Chris Durell

Welcome to another exciting Friday edition of daily fantasy baseball. We have another night where it might pay off to stack the bats and save up at the pitcher position, especially on FanDuel where you only need 1 SP. Madison Bumgarner sits atop the pitcher salaries tonight but only comes in as a small favorite on the road against the Yankees who only strikeout 17% of the time vs. southpaws. There are some other mid tier options who come in as big favorites tonight and will be in favorable spots to pick up the win. Let’s take a look at the slate.

PITCHERS

Tanner Roark FD 8700 DK 10500
Opponent – SD (Perdomo) Park – @WSH
FD – 37.49 DK – 23.61

Roark is one of these pitchers in a great spot as the Nationals open the series against the Padres as -230 favorites. In his last four starts plus two innings of relief, Roark has limited opponents to six earned runs in 31.1 innings bringing his season ERA down to 2.82 to go with a 3.67 xFIP. The Padres present a great matchup as they rank 29th in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right handed pitching while striking out 24.5%of the time. Roark is safe in all formats tonight.

Jason Hammel FD 8600 DK 7900
Opponent – MIL (Nelson) Park – @MIL
FD – 33.9 DK – 21.18

The Brewers lost 5-3 to the Pirates yesterday and struck out a whopping 13 times making Francisco Liriano look elite again. Believe it or not the Brewers are even worse against right handed pitching as they rank 23rd in wOBA(.306) and have an absolutely horrible 26.2% strikeout rate. Hammel isn’t a dominating presence with his 7.56 K/9 rate but should definitely get a bump today. I think the Brewers can make it back to back games where they make the opposition pitcher appear much better than he actually is.

STACKS

Toronto Blue Jays vs. James Paxton (Mariners)
Park – Rogers Centre

The Jays welcome the Mariners to town for a weekend series and game one has the Jays pitted against another southpaw in James Paxton who just hasn’t been able to get it together this season. In nine starts he has allowed 72 hits in 53.1 innings pitched and holds a 4.53 ERA and the xFIP of 3.81 suggests his numbers are not going to improve much going forward. He has limited the long ball(8% HR/FB rate) this year but could get into trouble tonight vs. the left smashing Jays who have quickly jumped up the ranks of team batting vs. southpaws. They now rank 8th in wOBA(.332) on the season and carry a 105 wRC+ against lefties into tonight’s matchup. Consider stacking them in the optimizer and look for some fireworks and a short outing from Paxton.

Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson (Twins)
Park – Fenway Park

The Rockies are at home in Coors Field and will be the chalk again tonight. IF you are looking for a pivot with similar upside I suggest rolling with the Red Sox who have scored 24 runs in their last two games. They lead all of baseball with 529 runs scored so far this season and also rank #1 in wOBA(.359) and wRC+(120) vs. right handed pitching. They get another favorable matchup vs. a weak righty in Kyle Gibson tonight. He has struggled to a 5.12 ERA and 4.39 xFIP this season with a below average strikeout rate(6.39 K/9) and awful walk rate(3.41 BB/9). Look for the Red Sox to keep piling on runs as they now try to hold onto the top spot in the American League East division. Another good night for BOS as an optimized stack.

Doug Norrie

Well after a full day of MLB yesterday, we get a smaller Thursday slate of evening games. Nice to ease into the weekend like this. Like slowly sliding into a warm bath. If the bath was made of cheap, light beer because we have a game at Coors. Oh baby, it’s bath time!

rosario at the plate. nap time.

Adam Wainwright FD 9200 DK 10400
Opponent – SD (Cashner) Park – @STL
FD – 36.12 DK – 23.61

If you’re craving safety, you’ll probably feel at least okay-ish with this pick. Wainwright’s not the guy he used to be, but he’s been pretty good this season if you wipe away a horrendous April, with an improving xFIP in each successive month. But arbitrary end points aside, the matchup is a nice one. The Padres have been marginally better lately, but they’re still one of the worst offenses in baseball against RHP, with an upside-boosting 24.5 percent K rate in the split. And when it comes to upside, Wainwright could use a little help. He’s never been a big-time strikeout guy, and his whiffs have been in decline over the last few seasons as injuries and age have taken a toll. That said, like the rest of his stats, the Ks have been much better lately. He fanned more than a batter per inning in June, which is better than double what he was doing in his first five starts of the season. The Cards are also a massive favorite (-230) as of this writing, and we always like to see that. So if you plan on stacking in the optimizer tonight, you can opt to lock Wainwright instead of taking the generated result.

Sonny Gray FD 7700 DK 6100
Opponent – TB (Moore) Park – @OAK
FD – 32.88 DK – 20.71

I’m going to be very honest with you: Pitching is awful today. Every game on the slate has an O/U of at least eight, and there are no "safe" or "cash game" plays outside of, Adam Wainwright. I’m not going to lie, I got excited when I saw Stephen Strasburg was taking the mound today, but then realized he was pitching in the early only slate. That broke my heart. What I’m trying to say is that the pitching options aren’t pretty today (so manage your bankroll accordingly).

Yes, Sonny Gray has an ERA over five, but he sports a 4.29 xFIP, which shows us that he has not been as bad as his ERA suggests. Additionally, he owns a 54.4 GB%, which will helps him out quite a bit going up against this powerful Rays’ lineup. And finally, the Rays will strikeout as evidenced by their 24% K rate against righties. Gray is cheap on DK which helps slide him into the SP2 slot.

Stacks

Colorado Rockies vs. Mike Foltynewicz (Braves)

The game is in Coors after all (remember the bath?) and the Rockies have the highest implied run total on the day (6.9 as of this writing). While Folty is a somewhat decent arm (8 K’s per nine, 4.01 xFIP) there’s only so much a pitcher can do in this park. Guys like Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez are in the better side of their splits and I’d even roll Nolan Arenado in a reverse platoon situation. The runs are just much going in. It’s a tough fade in cash games considering the Rockies aren’t priced out of consideration with pitching relatively cost effective. So if you want to move on to other teams, you might consider just plucking 2 guys, like Cargo/Arenado or Cargo/Blackmon, and give the next stacking option a look when optimizing lineups tonight.

Boston Red Sox vs. Tyler Duffey (BOS)

The Red Sox will be playing at home in Fenway, a hitter-friendly park, against a pitcher who owns an ERA over five. It doesn’t get much better than this folks. Not sure what else I have to say to get you on board, but if you’re not yet; maybe this will do it: The Red Sox rank 1st in wOBA (.354), 1st in wRC+ (117), 5th in ISO (.188) and 1st in OPS (.831) against right-handed pitching. David Ortiz isn’t hitting like a guy headed toward retirement with an OPS over 1.000 and top of the order guys like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts have seen a small price dip in the short term. It doesn’t get prettier than this; this is where you can almost fade Coors in tournaments with the Sox coming at advantageous price points. Keyword ‘almost’. Because… Coors.

Good luck tonight and if you have any questions regarding the mlb optimizer just give us a buzz in the help/contact link above!