bpender

Welcome back to another exciting day of daily fantasy baseball. After two straight days of split slate’s we have a full 15 game Friday slate that kicks off at 7:00 PM et. We have several viable pitching options tonight in great matchups whether facing a bad offense or in a great pitcher’s park, or both. The options are more than affordable and leave you plenty of salary if you are wanting to get some exposure to the game at Coors Field. Let’s take a look at some top pitching options and a few stacks for today.

PITCHERS

Zack Greinke FD 9800 DK 8800

Opponent – SD (Cosart) Park – @SD

FD – 36.18 DK – 24.18

Leading the way at the pitcher position tonight is Zack Greinke who gets one of the best matchups for a pitcher on the slate. After getting absolutely shelled by the top offense in baseball(Red Sox) it will be a welcome site for Greinke to head to Petco for a familiar date with the Padres. He has seen the Padres a ton through over the years and comes in with a 7-1 career record and 1.91 ERA. Even with his struggles this season, adjusting to his new team, he has kept his xFIP at 3.69  while walking just over 1.5 batters per nine. The Padres come in ranked dead last in wOBA and second last in wRC+ against right handed pitching with a high 24.6% K rate. Greinke is in a great spot to pickup his 12th win of the season and crush his value on both sites.

Cole Hamels FD 9700 DK 11100

Opponent – TB (Andriese) Park – @TB

FD – 37.54 DK – 24.97

Hamels comes into tonight’s matchup projecting as one of the top options on the board. Hamels has been terrific away from Arlington this season with a 1.97 ERA while limiting opponents to a low .262 wOBA.He will get a great chance to improve on those numbers today as he enters Tropicana Field(great pitcher’s park) to face the Rays who rank 20th in wOBA against left handed pitching with a high 25.3% K rate. The price is creeping up on DraftKings but with the matchup and park he makes a great play in all formats tonight on both sites.

STACKS

Chicago Cubs vs. Tyler Anderson (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field

The top stacking option of the night may not be as chalky as you would think. There is an early weather concern in Colorado that could cause a delayed start to the game or possibly a rain out but that is very unlikely. Both teams make sense in the best hitters park in the majors but I side with the Cubs as they crush left handed pitching with a .347 wOBA(3rd best) and 115 wRC+(Best in majors). Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras and Javier Baez make the top options as they all have strong splits vs. southpaws. You can also consider Anthony Rizzo as a contrarian play as he should get multiple at bats vs. the bullpen later in the game.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tim Adleman (Reds)
Park – Great American Ballpark

Outside of the Coors Field game, the Dodgers are by far my favorite stack tonight. They have been hot lately with the 3rd highest wOBA and 2nd highest wRC+ of any team over the past seven days. They also rank as a Top 10 team against right handed pitching with a .325 wOBA, .172 ISolated Power and 104 wRC+ for the season. They will face off vs. rookie starter Timothy Adleman making his 5th start of his career tonight. In his first four starts he has a poor 4.86 xFIP and has struggled mightily with left handed bats allowing them a .433 wOBA and .324 average. The best targets for the stack are going to be Chase Utley leading off, Corey Seager, Josh Reddick, Adrian Gonzalez and even Justin Turner who has very strong splits vs. right handed pitching.

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another exciting day of daily fantasy baseball. Today we have a split slate with a five game afternoon slate starting 1:05 pm and a 10 game main slate starting at 7:05 pm. Both slates are filled with top pitching options giving us some decisions to make if we are wanting to fit in some bats at Coors Field. Let’s take a look at some top pitchers and stacking options for the day.

PITCHERS

Chris Archer FD 9400 DK 10600
Opponent – SD (Friedrich) Park – @TB
FD – 40.51 DK – 26.62

You can go one of two ways for pitching on the early slate today. You can take the risk with Strasburg in Coors which makes a decent contrarian GPP approach. For safety I prefer Archer today who has a much better matchup at home vs. the Padres who rank dead last in wOBA against right handed pitching. Despite a few bad outings for Archer he has been decent this season with a 3.42 xFIP and elite 10.64 K/9 rate. The Rays are also early -200 favorites.

Carlos Carrasco FD 9800 DK 8700
Opponent – CHW (Gonzalez) Park – @CLE
FD – 35.01 DK – 22.89

The Indians are coming in as one of the biggest favorites(-225) of the entire slate and will be throwing Carlos Carrasco out on the mound today. He has had a few hiccups this year which stem from a high HR/FB rate(17%) and drop off in strikeouts from 10+ to 8.5 K/9.  While he has given up three earned runs in each of his last two he has gone seven innings in both (first time since June) and has struck out a total of 17 batters. The matchup is the key today as the White Sox rank 20th in wOBA (.306) against right handed pitching with a 20.7% strikeout rate.

STACKS

Washington Nationals vs. Jon Gray (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field

Don’t over think things in the early slate when it comes to stacking. The Nationals are currently -145 favorites with a very high 5.75 team total. They will look to take the rubber match vs. the Rockies in a series that has hit the under in each of the first two games. I can’t see this happening again today as the Nats get a matchup vs. Jon Gray who has struggled at home this year and has also struggled most recently. In his last two starts(@PHI, vs. MIA) he has given up 16 hits and 14 earned runs in just eight innings pitched. He continues to show K upside striking out nine in those games but also struggled with control walking five batters. Look for Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, and Jayson Werth to crush their values today.

Chicago Cubs vs. Jimmy Nelson (Brewers)
Park – Wrigley Field

While the overall Vegas total is lower in this game than the Rockies game, the Cubs come with the highest team total(6.12) of the slate. The Cubs are the class of the major leagues right now with 75 wins and a crazy +201 run differential. They are stacked at the top of the lineup with Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist and have terrific value options in willson Contreras, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward and Javier Baez. They are ranked 7th overall in wOBA(.329) and wRC+(103) vs. right handed pitching and get one of the best matchups of the night. They will face gas can Jimmy Nelson who has pitched to a 4.80 xFIP this year with an average K rate(7.0 K/9) and awful walk rate(4.27 BB/9). He has also gave up a total of 17 home runs this season that equals a bad 13.7% HR/FB rate. The weather is a bit of a concern at this time with about a 30-50% chance of rain around game time. I think this will scare some off the Cubs making them an even better option in the MLB lineup optimizer if the game is to be played in full.

Nick Rodriguez

We have a full 15-game slate on our hands with a ton of options, so lets get right into the action!

Pitching Targets

Corey Kluber FD 10700 DK 11400
Opponent – CHW (Quintana) Park – @CLE
FD – 39.23 DK – 25.9

Corey Kluber is my top cash-game play of the day. He will be going up against a White Sox offense that owns a .306 wOBA on the year and does not have a true power threat outside of Todd Fraizer. Kluber on the other hand, has been one of the most dominant pitchers over the last few seasons. He strikeouts 26.7% of the batters he faces and also owns a 3.18 xFIP. There are a ton of options today, but he’s the guy I’m looking to target in my cash games.

Blake Snell FD 7900 DK 8700
Opponent – SD (Jackson) Park – @TB
FD – 35.33 DK – 22.95

We saw what southpaw Drew Smyly did yesterday against the Padres and I’m expecting a similar performance from southpaw, Blake Snell.

Blake Snell has looked solid in his young career. He’s sporting a 3.18 ERA to go along with a 3.42 FIP and 23.1 K%. The problem for Snell has been the walks. He owns a whooping 12.4 BB%, which can affect his pitch-count tremendously and hurts the amount of innings he could go. Which is why he’s a GPP play for me.

He’s got tremendous upside, especially going up against this Padres’ offense. They own the second highest K% on the year (24.4 K%) and have been cold as of late. In their last 14 contests, they own a .291 wOBA (27th in MLB) to go along with an 82 wRC+ (27th in MLB). If Snell can keep the walks in check, we can expect him to put up similar numbers to Smyly.

Stack Targets
Washington Nationals vs. Chad Bettis (COL)

There are many different ways to approach tonight, but we always have to look at Coors. Today we have Gio Gonzalez vs. Chad Bettis on the bump, in Colorado. You could probably stack against either one of these pitchers, but I prefer to do it against Mr. Bettis.

The Nationals have been one of the hottest teams in baseball walking into Coors. In their last 14 contests, they own a 111 wRC+ (11th in MLB) to go along with a .340 wOBA (8th in MLB) and .204 ISO (4th in MLB). Chad Bettis is a solid pitcher with a 4.02 xFIP, but opponents own a .288 AVG against him. He gets hit often, so look for the Nats’ to take advantage at beautiful Coors Field.

My top 4 guys to stack: My top 4 guys to stack: Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Daniel Murphy and Jayson Werth And don’t forget Bryce Harper**

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Edwin Jackson (SD)

Believe it or not, Edwin Jackson pitched seven innings in his last outing and did not allow a single run. I’m sure that will scare a few people from stacking the Rays tonight, but not me. Edwin owns a 5.14 xFIP on the year, so he’s going to crack eventually. Not only is his xFIP extremely high, but he also walks over 10% of the batters he faces. That’s never a good thing and pitchers can get into a lot of trouble when giving free passes. We saw it happen to Luis Perdomo in the first inning last night.

Not only is this a beautiful matchup, but the Rays have also been hot. In their last 14 contests, they own a .200 ISO (5th in MLB) and .342 wOBA (5th in MLB). They have been crushing the baseball as of late, so I expect them to take advantage of Jackson and his 5.14 xFIP.

My top 4 guys to stack: Brad Miller, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria and Logan Forsythe.

Also consider the Red Sox- Orioles game as a stacking option

Nick Rodriguez

Happy Monday everyone! (Sarcasm) –The good news is that we still have baseball, which means we have some DFS to play! We have a 9-game slate on our hands and we have the one-and-only Coors Field in play today. So lets get right into the action!
 

Pitching Targets

Felix Hernandez FD 9800 DK 0
Opponent – LAA (Nolasco) Park – @LAA
FD – 28.93 DK – 19.03

With Max Scherzer at Coors today, I’ll go ahead and call Felix Hernandez the King of cash games today.

Hernandez will be going up against the Angels, which is a team that has struggled against right-handed pitchers this season. They own a .312 wOBA to go along with a 99 wRC+. Although they don’t strikeout a ton, this is still an excellent matchup for Hernandez. He’s looked great as of late, striking out 22 batters in his last outings, so go ahead and roll with the King in your cash games!

Drew Smyly FD 8500 DK 9000
Opponent – SD (Perdomo) Park – @TB
FD – 35.9 DK – 23.93

My tournament of the play belongs to Drew Smyly!

I know he owns a 5.12 ERA, but that does not scare me! He’s a much better pitcher than his ERA suggests, as he is sporting a 4.22 xFIP on the year. Not only does he have a down-gap in xFIP, but he also draws a beautiful matchup going up against the Padres; at spacious Tropicana Field.

He has major upside in this contest, as the Padres own a 24.4 K% against left-handed pitchers on the year. Not only do they own an extremely high K%, but Smyly also does some fanning of his own. He sports a 23.6 K% on the year to go along with a 6.3 BB%. I love the matchup for Smyly today and I believe he’s an excellent tournament play tonight!

Stack Targets
Washington Nationals vs. Jorge De La Rosa (COL)

We have a 9-game slate on our hands today and one of those games includes, Coors Field. This one in particular is very interesting because the run-total is at 9.5. We usually see it in the 10.5-12 ranges. Has Coors has lost its lustre in Vegas? No. Is Max Scherzer on the bump for the Nationals? Yes. This definitely makes things interesting and will mess with your head for a bit, but lets just stick to the stack I like a ton — the Nationals.

I’m going to be honest: I’m a pretty big Jorge De La Rosa fan. (Nothing like my love for Jose Quintana and Jon Gray, but I do like him a ton). But I can’t let my strange obsession with the southpaw get in the way- so I gotta stack against him. As much as this hurts my heart, it’s obvious why I have to do it: It’s because he’s going up against the Nationals! They had the second highest ISO this past week (.225) and own the sixth highest wOBA against southpaws on the year (.336 wOBA). With those two things in play, I have put my love aside for Jorge De La Rosa and will be all over the Nationals today. And oh yeah — this game is at Coors Field.

Detroit Tigers vs. Ian Kennedy (DET)

Ian Kennedy and his 4.52 xFIP, will be taking on the Detroit Tigers. I’m all over the Tigers today, as I see this being a better matchup than most people might think. Yes, Ian Kennedy owns an ERA under four and has been "solid" this season, but I’m still a fan of this Tigers’ squad tonight and this sets for a less than obvious stack, which is what we need.

On the year, Kennedy owns a 47.3 FB% along with a 1.82 HR/9. Those numbers are very appealing if you’re looking to stack against a pitcher (dingers = fantasy points), especially when it’s the Tigers’ powerful offense you’re looking at. The other thing that stood out to me about Kennedy was his hard contact rate. On the year, opponents own a 37.9% hard contact rate. That is very hard and when you put his FB%, HR/9 and hard contact rate all together, it yells out trouble to me.

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another TGIF edition of daily fantasy baseball. Friday gives us one game in the afternoon(STL vs. CHC) leaving 14 games for the main slate that starts at 7:00 PM et. For the purpose of the following picks we will be concentrating on the main slate tonight. We won’t be short on pitching options tonight as many teams are running their aces with a few in great spots to help us score big in DFS. Let’s dig in.

PITCHERS

Stephen Strasburg FD 11600 DK 12400
Opponent – ATL (Foltynewicz) Park – @WSH
FD – 39.18 DK – 25.37

The top pitcher on the slate is none other than Mr. Strasburg tonight. The fact that he is coming off his second loss of the season and second in his last four starts doesn’t concern me at all considering he is one of the top pitchers in the league. He has been absolutely elite this year with a 15-2 record, .280 ERA, and 11.00 K/9 rate. Throw in the fact he is facing the Braves who rank dead last vs. right handed pitching and you have a very high upside play for any format.

Francisco Liriano FD 7700 DK 6600
Opponent – HOU (Musgrove) Park – @TOR
FD – 30.38 DK – 19.93

One of the top value plays of the night at the pitching position is Francisco Liriano. He makes an excellent second pitcher option on DraftKings or contrarian GPP play on FanDuel. It will be hard to ignore the price as it seems the sites are begging us to play him. I get it. It’s been an up and down season and he is pitching to a 4.48 xFIP but he is now on a new team with a renewed sense of value as the Jays are thick in the playoff race. If he can control the free passes he comes with elite strikeout upside(9.10 K/9) and faces the Astros who rank 22nd in wOBA vs. left handed pitching with a high 23% K rate.

STACKS

Texas Rangers vs. Anibal Sanchez (Tigers)
Park – Globelife Park in Arlington

The Rangers are big home favorites(-190) in a matchup with the second highest total on the slate. They currently sit with a comfortable 6.5 game lead in the American League West and have won six of their last 10 games. They rank both in the Top 10 vs. right handed pitching for the season and Top 10 among all team over the past 7 days. The get a matchup vs. Anibal Sanchez who is coming off back to back starts allowing just one earned run but I am not buying the trend. First of all, he faced the Mets and White Sox who sit in the bottom third of the league in hitting. Second, I will take the larger sample size over the small one as Sanchez has been less than impressive this season with a 4.65 xFIP, high 3.64 BB/9 rate and 14% HR/FB rate. Not to mention Beltre, Desmond, Beltran and Chirinios all have career wOBA’s over .300 against him. All the Rangers tonight!

Boston red Sox vs. Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks)
Park – Fenway Park

The chalk stack of the day is the Boston Red Sox. They currently sit as -235 home favorites in one of the best hitters parks in the majors. They are projected for close to six runs today in a matchup vs. Patrick Corbin which makes sense as they lead the majors in overall runs scored(609) and rank 3rd in wOBA and wRC+ against left handed pitching. Over his last five starts, Corbin has been awful allowing 38 hits and 20 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. That equals a 7.20 ERA and 4.71 xFIP. He has K upside but walks way too many batters(3.93 BB/9) and gives up a ton of long balls with a 17.4% HR/FB rate. The top stacking options are going to be Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez(if back in lineup) and even David Ortiz who has hit left handed pitching quite well this season.

Chris Durell

Welcome to another night of daily fantasy baseball. Wednesday brings us a split slate with three games in afternoon and 12 in the evening. With such a small early slate we are going to focus on the main slate with our pitchers and stacks. If you are up for some all day or early action I favor the pitching in the Indians/Nationals game and would consider stacking the Giants and Phillies. Let’s dig into the main slate.

PITCHERS

Dallas Keuchel FD 8700 DK 7700
Opponent – MIN (Santana) Park – @MIN
FD – 34.39 DK – 21.78

From a PTS/$ perspective, Keuchel is my top pitcher on the slate tonight. He comes with a very affordable price tag on both sites and has rebounded nicely in the second half. After one of his worst starts of the season against the Tigers, he came out firing last start with a complete game shutout vs. the Rangers. Keuchel has limited opponents to two earned runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and makes up for his average K rate(7.66 K/9) with an elite 57.7% ground ball rate. Keuchel should get a bump in the K’s tonight as the Twins strikeout 8th most(23.4%) vs. left handed pitching.

Justin Verlander FD 10000 DK 12900
Opponent – SEA (Hernandez) Park – @SEA
FD – 33.12 DK – 22.22

Verlander has been dealing at an elite level since the beginning of July. He has gone 5-0 in those seven starts with an impressive 1.85 ERA while limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in all seven games. He has also seen a jump in the strikeout rate(10.54 K/9) over the past month and a half. He gets a decent matchup to keep up the hot streak against the Mariners tonight. Despite being ranked as the 5th best team when looking at wOBA vs. right handed pitching, the Mariners have struggled recently ranking 24th in the last 14 days. He makes an excellent GPP play today.

STACKS

Texas Rangers vs. Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies)
Park – Globe life Park in Arlington

The highest total on the slate comes in a matchup between two southpaws in Globe Life park in Arlington, Texas. The Rangers are favored at home with -150 line at the moment and team total north of five runs today. They make a great stacking option vs. Jorge De La Rosa who has been bad at home and even worse on the road this year. In 48.2 innings away from Coors Field he has pitched to a 6.10 ERA and allowed opponents a .375 wOBA and a hard contact rate(33.5%) that is over 7% higher than his home number. The middle of the Rangers order is a great place to start your stack with Adrian Beltre, Ian Desmond, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran. Shin-Soo Choo and Roughned Odor also make intriguing options in a lefty lefty matchup but both actually hit southpaws quite well.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Blake Snell (Rays)
Park – Rogers Centre

The Jays burnt us last night in a good matchup vs. a struggling lefty in Drew Smyly. We can’t let yesterday’s results cloud our judgement today so I will be going back to the well with the boys from North of the border. They have led baseball in hitting southpaws over the past two seasons and get another opportunity to build on those numbers tonight. They will face off with rookie Blake Snell who has shown signs of brilliance in his early career with an impressive 9.16 K/9 rate. He has also shown signs of a total lack of control and has been walking way too many batters(4.42 BB/9). If he hands out free passes to the Jays tonight who sit close to the top with a 9.8% walk rate against LH pitching, he will get punished. Devon Travis makes a near must play as his price continues to stay down despite the red hot streak he is on. Behind him is where you get your power with Jose Baustista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and even Michael Saunders who has hit left handed pitching quite well this season(.355 OBA/122 wRC+).

Chris Durell

Welcome back to another Friday edition of daily fantasy baseball advice. Tonight we have all 15 games coming on the main slate that starts at 7:00 pm et. There are some big favorites tonight starting with the Cardinals(-220) at home to the Braves and the Cubs(-215) on the road in Oakland. There aren’t many high end options at the pitching position tonight but a ton of mid to low tier salary relief options. You know what that means? It will be a great night to load up on the bats! Let’s take a look at a few pitching options and stacks for tonight’s action.

PITCHERS

Justin Verlander FD 9900 DK 13600
Opponent – NYM (Thor) Park – @DET
FD – 35.77 DK – 19.04

Verlander looks great, but the W is not guaranteed today. Verlander’s pricing looks astonishingly higher on DK than Fanduel which is interesting in itself. And on Fanduel we feel he would be a great play based on his numbers alone. He is higher than Lester in my book in terms of expected DFS points, across all pitchers. With a ~1 whip and more hitters fanned than Innings Pitched (147), he just looks great. But the matchup with Syndergaard on the other side make this a much smaller play. We will only have a few exposed lineups. The W is too important!

Jameson Taillon FD 7400 DK 7800
Opponent – CIN (DeSclafani) Park – @PIT
FD – 30.73 DK – 20.26

In his rookie season, Taillon has continually gotten better; he’s gone six innings in four straight starts and limited opponents to two earned runs or less in three of those starts. The K rate is average (7.24 K/9) but should continue to rise. But the most impressive part is that he is walking less than 1 batter per nine. He gets a favorable matchup to build on those numbers as the Reds rank 23rd in wOBA(.305) with 21.7% K rate vs. right handed pitching and those take a hit now that Jay Bruce has been shipped out of town. Taillon is good non-populist play in any format tonight.

Blake Snell FD 7900 DK 8700
Opponent – MIN (Santana) Park – @TB
FD – 33.28 DK – 21.84

Blake Snell makes an intriguing option in a home matchup vs. the Twins. The Rays come in as -130 home favorites in the lowest projected total(7.5) of the slate. The Twins have been a tough team to nail down as they have hit well since the first couple months of the season and now rank in the top half of the league in wOBA vs. left handed and right handed pitching. Some of the upside comes with their low 3.5 projected run line and 21%+ strikeout rate. Snell has been very impressive lately, despite the high walk rate(3.75 BB/9), limiting opponents to two earned runs or less in four straight starts with a 3.07 xFIP and 10.88 K/9 rate. He is definitely worth taking a shot with at his current price range on both sites.

STACKS

Chicago Cubs vs. Dillon Overton (Athletics)
Park – Oakland Coliseum

First of all, I don’t like the park as the Oakland Coliseum has surrendered the 2nd least home runs and 5th least total runs in the league this season. This recommendation is a scenario where the matchup is just too good despite the park factor. To compensate, we are hopeful that the forecasted 12mph wind towards right center comes to fruition. But even if not, the Cubs are the 4th highest scoring team(542 runs) in the league and get a great opportunity to build on those numbers against Dillon Overton. In his first four starts in the majors he has surrendered 34 hits and 19 earned runs in just 18.1 innings pitched with nine home runs. The awful ERA of 9.33 is backed up by a just as awful xFIP of 6.72. If he continues to give up fly balls at nearly an 80% rate he is going to get punished by the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras and even Javier Baez. We will absolutely be stacking CHC in the mlb optimizer tonight.

Miami Marlins vs. Jorge De La Rosa (Rockies)
Park – Coors Field

If stacking is your thing you better not try and get cute and fade the Coors game tonight. The Marlins are in town and the matchup bolsters the biggest run total(11.5) of the slate by a long shot. They have two bats in the middle of the order in Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna who are about the best in the business at rocking lefties. Over the last two years they have a 1.053 and 1.001 OPS respectively in that split. Both teams make great stacking options but you can get the Marlins a bit cheaper with very similar upside.

If we squeeze in any sneaky stacks, we will be sure to post our iterations here!

Welcome to Thursday baseball. Can you smell the weekend? Lets torch our productivity at work for a few more days with some daily fantasy baseball. It’s definitely a strange day and we are writing this late. But vegas says everyone is going to hit dingers so we need to take a no BS look at the players and see where they might be wrong.

Pitching
Drew Pomeranz is probably going to be a favorite tonight with his low 1.14 WHIP, strong 10SO/9 upside, and lowest allowed wOBA, AVG, SLG, and OPS on the day. The park helps too. We feel Pomeranz will show up on most radars today so the excitement level for GPP’s is not as strong. But considering today’s options, he may be your best bet for both formats if you aren’t in a contrarian mood.

J.A. Happ is probably also going to get some looks from the public today but at a matchup level with HOU and considering his slightly lower price, the dirt looks a little cleaner. His WHIP is 1.16, his allowed stats are very close to Pomeranz, but just from a DFS perspective he is a bit more dense when it comes to points per $1k at almost 4. This is indicative of his recent success… and so the question is, can he keep it up? The xFIP gap is leaning regression. But there are a few TOR players that stand out so strongly against Fiers that I feel the W is more likely here. Others may disagree, but we see him as higher risk/higher reward. Just what I’m looking for.

Kenta Maeda, as silly as it sounds to take on COL in Coors (and trust us it is definitely silly) dont be surprised to see his Fanduel and Draftkings ownership a bit higher than you expect. His regular season allowed stats are a virtual tie with Pomeranz and he is indicating a higher SO/9 upside than Happ. The public should spot this and we suspect the growing base of intelligent DFSers will all be thinking "Muahaha, no-one will suspect it!"…. This is spiraling down into triple-reverse-psychology quickly. So let’s keep it simple. Do you want to have a beer on Thirsty Thursday and root for your pitcher at coors field? I say do it, if only for a buck. The risk is too high to go heavy, but life is too short not to play.

Stacking
With so much bad pitching out there, the interwebs and twitter quickly filled up with hot talk of poor Finnegan getting crushed by STL. Well… the St Louis dead-birds put up a fat zero today and Finny pitched a shutout. Again, the name of the game is deciphering when someone is close to regressing to their mean. Staring at hard data wont always do the trick. But if you watched Finnegan get thrust into a world series game his rookie year …. and watched him pull it off… you would know that he’s got the goods and the wherewithal to bounce back. We did not make some crystal-ball call on finny today, but if there is ever a theme: It pays to bet against when a lot of fish will be exposed.

And now to talk from the other side of our mouth…

LAD will, no doubt, be up way up there in ownership. But Coors park factors are such outliers that it must be contended with. This is just DFS canon in 2016. Chatwood is giving up wOBA in the .360s to lefties and the addition of Reddick is appealing. Try to slink by with a few of the lower expected owned players from LAD as well as small exposure to a few full LAD stacks in the optimizer tonight.

TOR is interesting especially if Bautista gets a rally started against Fiers. He is batting wOBA in the .350s and Fiers is giving up the same to right handers. At a grainular level, Bautista is killing junkballs and we feel his numbers are still trending up. The park is favorable and TOR platoon has an above average matchup against Fiers as well. Bautista, although he can’t defend against a right hook (or was it a left?), will be getting a few stack locks in our mlb lineup optimizer tonight.

And since we are so late on today’s article, here are our personal double stack iterations tonight, sans much explanation:

LAD, TOR, TEX (Beltran), and LAA (Trout)

Good luck tonight!

Welcome back to another split slate Wednesday in daily fantasy baseball. Today we have three games in the early slate and 12 games on the main slate starting at 7:00 PM et tonight. Outside of Max Scherzer in the early slate there are some tough decisions to be made on the pitching front today, especially due to the fact that we have to make Coors Field decisions. Let’s take a look at some top pitchers and stacks for today!

Pitchers

Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 13200
Opponent – ARI (Godley) Park – @ARI
FD – 42.66 DK – 27.87

If you want a piece of Scherzer today you will have to get in on the three game early slate or all day slate, which I only recommend on DraftKings with the late swap feature. On the surface it appears to be a tough matchup but the Diamondbacks have struggled against righties ranking 19th in wOBA with a 23.3% K rate(5th worst in Majors). Scherzer has been pitching at an elite level lately limiting opponents to one earned run or less in five of his last six starts with a 10.67 K/9 rate and 1.09 ERA. The park downgrade isn’t great but I will take my shot with extremely high strikeout upside Scherzer brings to the table in this favorable matchup.

Steven Matz FD 9500 DK 8800
Opponent – NYY (Nova) Park – @NYY
FD – 28.45 DK – 18.73

I absolutely love this spot for Matz tonight. The Mets are currently slight -120 favorites on the road and taking on a Yankees team that has pretty much given up on the season. They traded away one of their best hitters, especially against left handed pitching. Their rank of 26th in wOBA and 28th in Isolated Power is likely going to get worse and that makes Matz a strong consideration in any format today. 

Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cody Reed (Reds)
Park – Great American Ballpark
The Cardinals are in a great spot to snap out of the slump tonight in Cincinnati vs. a struggling southpaw Cody Reed. He has strikeout upside(9.34 K/9) but lacks control and dishes out a ton of free passes(3.53 BB/9). This is a big problem when you struggle to hold runners on and give up a 40% hard contact rate. The 32.3% HR/FB rate is alarming and opens up a huge opportunity for the Cards. They won’t cost a ton with value plays like Thomas Pham and Jedd Gyorko hitting near the top of the lineup and even Stephen Piscotty and Matt Holliday are not overly expensive in this terrific matchup. 




Colorado Rockies vs. Brock Stewart
Ballpark – Coors Field
Another night. Another Coors Field decision to make. With Kenta Maeda pushed back until Thursday, the Dodgers have called up Brock Stewart to make another spot start. He did show some strikeout upside in his first start with 7 K’s against the Brewers but did give up eight hits and five earned runs. Things will not get any easier for the young pitcher as the park factor gets even worse as he travels to the thin are in Colorado.  He is a three pitch pitcher(Fastball, Slider, Changeup) and if he is slightly off on any of them it can have a huge impact on the rest. Look for the Rockies to teach the kid a lesson in his first trip to Coors. The top of the lineup for the Rockies(Blackmon, LeMahieu, Arenado, Cargo) will be extremely chalky once again. If you want to differentiate yourself you can take a stab with some of the lower lineup value plays in Dahl, Reynolds, or Descalso. 

Nick Rodriguez

Happy Tuesday! The work week is still fresh & NFL isn’t quite here. Which means we need some daily fantasy baseball to help entertain us for a few more days! Welcome to a full 15-game slate, packed with plenty of fresh options as well as some of the usual suspects. Aces on the mound, Coors Field, and Max Kepler. Here we go!
 

Pitchers

Madison Bumgarner FD 11800 DK 13000
Opponent – PHI (Eflin) Park – @PHI
FD – 41.28 DK – 27.06

We have a lot of aces on the mound, but the “safest” play of the day has to be Bumgarner. He is an elite pitcher, who has been pitching like one, and draws a favorable matchup.

He will be facing off with the Philadelphia Phillies, who have struggled against southpaws this season. They own a .282 wOBA (dead-last in MLB), so look for Mad-Bum to take advantage. He is one of the best pitchers in the game today and has some upside, so go ahead and use him in your cash games.

Jose Fernandez FD 11000 DK 12700
Opponent – CHC (Hammel) Park – @CHC
FD – 37.44 DK – 24.86

Going up against the Cubs is not an ideal matchup for a pitcher, but this is Jose we’re talking about. He owns a 36.8 K% on the year (highest in MLB) to go along with a 76.2 LOB% and 2.26 xFIP. In tournaments, we tend to look for the guy with the highest ceiling and Jose is that guy.

While the Cubs are one of the best offensive teams in the league, they have the tendency to strikeout. They own a 22.6 K% (6th in MLB) against right-handed pitchers. Mr. K meets a team that strikes out a ton, so we there is potential to rack up the K’s tonight. He is an excellent pivot from Bumgarner in tournaments on ownership alone, although this becomes a riskier assumption as NFL approaches and less MLB-savvy folks enter the ring. Pricing is the only deterrent from me taking heavy exposure.

Gerrit Cole FD 9500 DK 9000
Opponent – ATL (Foltynewicz) Park – @ATL
FD – 35.83 DK – 23.47

While Gerrit Cole doesn’t have the same upside as Jose, he does draw a better matchup and has Vegas on his side.

He will be going up against the Braves tonight, who have struggled against right-handed pitchers this year. They own a .290 wOBA (30th in MLB) and .118 ISO (30th in MLB). They haven’t had much going for them on offense and playing at Turner Field won’t help their cause.

Not many people talk about Gerrit Cole, but he’s been good this season. He is coming into this contest sporting a 74.7 LOB% along with a 2.78 ERA. He isn’t a guy with a whole lot of upside, as he owns a 20.0 K%; BUT he has gotten close to 10 SO/9 in prior years as well as in the minors. With this matchup he could migrate back towards those numbers soon. And unlike Jose, Vegas has the Pirates as heavy favorites tonight, which increases his chances of picking up the win. He presents another, potentially lower owned, cash game option for tonight.

STACK TARGETS

Coors
Well this update came a little late but after review, here is what we think so far:
First, there are some weather concerns in Coors. 30-35% chance of t-storms around game start. It clears up a bit later but the chance for PPD is definitely there.

Outside of weather, we are a little bit more bullish on McCarthy (LAD) than some might expect. With almost every Dodgers pitcher going down on injury, McCarthy has seemingly stepped it up since his return from TJ surgery. He is relying heavily on his 4-seamer and his curve has improved a lot. The numbers in his short 26 innings pitched are pretty solid with a sub .9 WHIP to prove that point. But the below average goundball rate on his fastball at ~32% can quickly lead to a ball or 2 over the fence. Not a ton of data yet but his numbers are certainly much better than the 20-ish innings he pitched last season. And that is enough to skew our eyes at Jon Gray and the Dodgers platoon.

Gray has been doing well recently as a rookie. But he faced the Phillies and the Braves and now he is back in Coors. Also, he seems to get beat up by lefties with a high hard contact rate and the Dodgers have been doing really well against Righty pitchers. They just added yet another lefty to their lineup in Josh Reddick. I’d be more interested on this side of Coors, but both sides are certainly in play.

Lefty Dodgers to look at: Gonzales, Seager, Reddick, Pederson

Cleveland Indians vs. Kyle Gibson (MIN)

While the Indians didn’t score 12 runs last night (it was the Twins), they still had a nice night putting up 5 runs. It obviously was not enough to win the game, but this is DFS! We just want our guys to score and hit dingers!

With that being said, I love generating a few Indians stacks in the mlb optimizer tonight. They will be going up against Kyle Gibson, who has struggled this season. On the year, he owns a 1.40 WHIP to go along with an ERA, FIP, SIERA and xFIP all over 4. This is a good matchup for one of the best teams in baseball, so go ahead and show them some love! It’s their turn to score 12 runs!

My top 4 guys to stack: Mike Napoli, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis and Jose Ramirez

Washington Nationals vs. Robbie Ray (ARI)

Ok, Robbie Ray has looked great as of late, but for this reason and few others, we are still going to pick on him and give a hard look at the Nationals.

Like we’ve mentioned, the D’backs bullpen is just awful and we saw it last night. They allowed 6 runs after Bradley’s 8, so watch out for something similar. As for the Nats, not only have they been hot but they also smash lefties. They own a .341 wOBA (5th in MLB) along with a .207 ISO (1st in MLB). The Nats’ get a southpaw, a terrible bullpen and a hitter friendly park, what more can we ask for? Well besides free beer?

Again, stay tuned for more stack options and some further details on Coors.